The Racing Horse has an in-depth look at the Melbourne Cup and highlighted a new trend that looks likely to continue at least in the short-term. It is well worth a read before looking at the numbers...
2020 MELBOURNE CUP – Cause For Concern!
We follow up a personal view of the Melbourne Cup with some tendencias pertinentes and offer some clear common denominators. IGNORE the call for a low draw, a kind trip and a good ride are far more important:
- All 16 Cup winners won at Group class level previous to the race (100%)
- And 14 of 16 raced in the last four weeks (88%)
- Also 14 of the last 16 came from stall 5 or higher (88%)
- Just 1 female winning jockey since 1861 (0.6%)
- No horse carried more than 8st 13lbs or 57kgs in the last 15 years (0%)
- 0 mares in the last 14 years have won this race (0%)
Trends and profiling are useful tools but especially in big handicaps BUT this year we are ignoring a number of the key trends including days since last run, the need for a prep run in Victoria, and the age of the horse. We have explained the reason in our Cause For Concern piece. Besides, the trends are better used after first considering the first 5 prerequisites of any wager - trainer form, class, distance and ground and jockey. Melbourne Cups are won by a kind trip or an inspired ride.
Racing Trends for 2020 Melbourne Cup
16/16: Won a Group class race before (100%)
14/16: Raced within the last 4 weeks (88%)
14/16: Ran Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Mooney Valley (5) lto (88%)
14/16: Won 8 or fewer (88%)
14/16: Winners from stall 5 or higher (88%)
14/16: Winning distance – 2 lengths or less (88%)
11/16: Drawn in stall 9 or higher (69%)
11/16: Placed in the top 3 last time out (69%)
10/16: Raced within the last 2 weeks (63%)
10/16: Aged 5yo or older (63%)
10/16: Won by Australian-based horse (63%)
10/16: Raced at Flemington Park before (7 won) (63%)
10/16: Returned 12/1 or shorter (63%)
..9/16: Aged 6yo or older (56%)
..8/16: Won by a 6yo (50%)
..7/16: Placed favourites (44%)
..0/15: Carried more than 8st 13lbs or 57kg (0%)
LAST 16 WINNERS
2019: VOW AND DECLARE 10/1
2018: CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
2017: REKINDLING (14/1)
2016: ALMANDIN (10/1)
2015: PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
2014: PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
2013: FIORENTE (6/1f)
2012: GREEN MOON (19/1)
2011: DUNADEN (15/2)
2010: AMERICAIN (12/1)
2009: SHOCKING (9/1)
2008: VIEWED (40/1)
2007: EFFICIENT (16/1)
2006: DELTA BLUES (17/1)
2005: MAKYBE DIVA (17/5f)
2004: MAKYBE DIVA (13/5f)
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 18/1
In 84 attempts stall 18 has never provided a Melbourne Cup winner
Michelle Payne only female jockey winner (2015) Pride Of Penzance at 100/1 but that win has since been sullied and not by Michelle Payne...
So what are our conclusions as regards the 1-2-3-4? We are expecting 25° on Monday and 28° on Tuesday so we are expecting a fast track and they are almost certain to water.
ANTHONY VAN DYCK cannot win with 9st 3lbs though looks certain to run a big race. With Hugh Bowman in the saddle on a form horse they are entitled to almost win. Anthony Van Dyck should settle much closer than he did in the Caulfield Cup and will like the ground. However he is not a Makybe Diva so a tough ask (No horse carried more than 8st 13lbs or 57kgs to win in the last 15 years).
SURPRISE BABY is clearly the best Australian horse trained chance. Beaten by the draw last year coming from 18th at the 400m to finish less than a length off the winner. He was given a long break after that run. Interesting connections bypassed both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. Has run two decent preparation races under new jockey Craig Williams and looks a place finisher.
MASTER OF REALITY looks the perceived value in the race at prices around 25/1. Ran very well in this race last year and carries around the same weight again. His last two runs have been good and fitness certainly won't be an issue coming off four runs over 2816m. A great each-way bet.
The winner is going to be TIGER MOTH and we have already explained the rationale behind him. We have nibbled at prices of 9/1 and over. On form and paper the colt has a better chance than Rekindling (2017) and his run in the Group 1 Irish Derby (2414m) was excellent behind a smart one in Santiago, and he was utterly dominant winning over the same trip last start with a promise of lots more to come. The draw is awkward but not life threatening, Vow And Declare won from 21 twelve months ago, and Cross Counter from 19 the year before. We are not concerned he is an entire 3yo and Kerrin looks a great jockey booking for him.
The biggest negative, now that Ryan Moore is not riding, is Tiger Moth has only had four starts and no Cup winner in nearly 140 years has had so few starts but times are changing for this race. Aidan O'Brien told us: "I had not realised the trends, they are often hard to reverse. He ran two races before the Irish Derby and then he ran in the mile-and-a-half race at Leopardstown. We tried to make that race as fast and as strong and as competitive as we could to try to teach him as much as we could and to expose him as much we could. We knew he wasn’t going to have many opportunities to run before the Cup. We have done our best to teach him."
THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:
1 TIGER MOTH 8/1 2 MASTER OF REALITY 25/1 3 SURPRISE BABY 8/1 4 ANTHONY VAN DYCK 13/2
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
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