The Racing Horse Modus Operandi

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

A strategy is a general plan of action designed to achieve a long-term or overall aim, whilst a system is a fixed set of rules.

The Racing Horse bins all betting advice systems and strategies found in our inbox in 0.027 seconds - sometimes quicker! Very few deserve scrutiny as most are not fit for purpose. They tend to enlist flawed or less important features supplying false credence, others are bogus procuring false hope, whilst there are those designed by authors who seek to raise their own profiles. 

The Racing Horse prefers a strategy though we do use systems. Our cornerstone bet is the Pacafi and the essential and common sense rationale that accompanies it has stood the test of time and make up the 'FOUR CORNERS' of our betting slip. This raison d’être was essential in 1950, vital now and will be relevant in 2025

We take this opportunity to reaffirm the quadripoints in order of importance! They are:





Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting, with this in mind it must be reasonable to accept/acknowledge current trainer statistics and the mathematics that accompany them. We cannot explain why anyone who would back an out of form trainer unless they were getting disproportionate odds and/or inside information.

Trainer form is a decisive and indicative test and removes a concatenation of random factors, opinion and bias. In a general sense it suggests/confirms/proves the well-being of the stable’s horses whilst delivering an up to the minute litmus test on readiness to run positively. Conversely, and assuming one does not have that specific inside information which contains an edge, backing the horses of trainers on the cold list must be at least unwise.

Of course, there are times when a trainer's horses are returning to form but without winning, so his/her 7% strike rate mean they can fly under the radar, at least as far as most punters are concerned. On those occasions we might get involved as long as there is perceived value attached. This is not a contradiction to the views expressed above. VALUE IS EVERYTHING IN BETTING, or at least perceived value is, because no human being can say for sure what real/exact value is at any given time, not even a bookmaker!

There are any amount of random factors that can affect a result and it takes small margins to win most races. These issues are more likely to be compounded if the horse is not fully wound up or prepared! Furthermore, if one accepts that handicap racing forms more than half of all races on the cards of UK race meetings a few pounds of improvement or decay can mean the difference between winning and finishing down the field.

Each horse has a potential ability level, whether they achieve that is another matter. The better the horse is trained and looked after the more it is likely to achieve, but it is accepted that genetics and skeletal soundness are factors outside the trainer’s remit. Finding the bandwidth to which each horse can aspire needs the trainer to be totally in tune with his charge and, whilst some achieve, most fail in this regard. Based on this incongruity we only trust recent form and trainer's of some quality.

Unless we have a clear edge or trustworthy information we tend to put a line through Class 5, 6 & 7 Handicaps. Our preferred option on the Flat is backing 3yos in non-handicap races, our Racecourse Template Data prove this is the best bandwidth frequency for our style of betting. We readily accept this information is known by bookmakers and most of the time their price reflect the fact, most of the time...

We were fortunate to spend the day with Monty Roberts (The Horse Whisperer) where he gave us the benefit of some of his profound knowledge. One area included the ground conditions where he reminded us that every horse ever been born or ever will be born, has optimum ground and racing conditions. The onus rests solely on the bettor to find out before making an investment what that is!

Some racing people including trainers like Mick Channon foolishly say good horses go on any ground – they do not, some are more versatile than others, some just handle it better or have something in hand of their rivals - it is not the same thing! A problem for systems is they are unlikely to recognise/weigh/measure optimum or deteriorating conditions against the class the horses are racing in! Lots of bets are lost before the race has even started!

Let's suppose our intended wager has a tick in every box and a winning chance looks obvious, why would anyone compromise the bet once the horse arrives at the course after weeks/months of schooling/training? Trainers are not duty bound to give the ride to the best jockey available! They might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted, rides work or a favoured son. The owner might have input or the decision might be political. But the bettor has no such restrictions. It is impossible to measure or be scientific about the importance of jockeyship, but they are the trainer’s connection/conduit to the horse and it is often their split-second decisions that ultimately dictate the result and our profit and loss.

The quadripoints listed probably represent 90%+ in importance towards a winning bet. Of course stable shenanigans, course configuration, draw and track bias, pace in the race, distance, weight, breeding and more can influence the result but the big four represents a core and serious starting point to any bet. This is where we part with most systems and strategies!

The Racing Horse can no longer imagine placing a bet without all of the four corner elements satisfied. Why invite negative influences to a wager?

 The Pacafi remains the cornerstone of our site but recognise it does not suit the vast majority of bettors and we understand why. We do not attempt to sell it because the average joe is not interested in incremental gains. This strategy already makes a profit to level stakes and has done since June 2010 but if used with our form of stake protection it really does represent NO RISK betting, see our explanation:

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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