Opportunity Riding A Dangerous Wind
The Racing Horse has long embraced the exciting but highly speculative venture that is wagering and the subjective decision-making processes that accompanies it. After 53 years of betting we still see events and combinations of events in a race not predicted or seen before. So, lesson one in horse racing betting is absolutely anything can happen in a race, accept and expect this premise!
Based on this preamble from a betting perspective, we offer a personal insight and journey, expressing and highlighting some primary certainties and weaknesses in some semblance of order.
Flight animals meet human frailty
Even before the starting gates fly open, we ask nervous flight animals to set aside their unpredictability and spontaneous nature and perform to a predetermined mark/level. To compound the uncertainty we add human frailty to the mix, by demanding jockeys, who have different levels of ability, experience and intelligence, give optimum rides to their mounts. These truisms merely represent the precursor to betting.
The Racing Gods contrive against us
Over the years we have learnt to accept that the 'racing gods' are contriving almost unimaginable circumstances to beat us. To counter, we must build that propensity or turn of mind into the bet. So for us to win from sports betting we must factor and deal with what those racing gods throw at us. Accepting their existence and not grumbling about them is a wagering prerequisite. From there, we must accept total responsibility for each and every bet made irrespective of events. If the extraneous conspire against us what about human contribution?
Human nature fosters a huge single negative towards betting which is generally known as the dreaded 'Gambler's Fallacy' mentality. This mistaken belief suggests to most, that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are not! Thinking probabilities have changed is the most common of preconceptions. For example, the probability of landing on red on a roulette wheel after nine successive reds is still 48.69% (18 red slots divided by 37 total slots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many to lose money thinking/assuming the probabilities have changed - mathematics NEVER changes EVER!
Horse racing betting demands separation from the emotional, ignoring this fact automatically negatively impacts those thought processes. Natural human inclination is to selectively use data to support their own emotional conclusions, so often pick and choose the data that suits and ignore that which would weaken their case.
How one deals with a loss or a losing run and the consequent frustration is emotionally draining and difficult. On a personal note this represents our weakest area in sports betting though we have learnt to harness/shackle it. We use the words harness and shackle because we never conquer emotional involvement completely, it is always lurking in dark recesses. Even with our vast experience we sometimes blame then question our competency, this state of mind can last different amounts of time and all of it a total and utter waste of time. This negative loss of focus is neither conducive to betting nor well being.
Strategy better than randomness
Furthermore, uncertainty and randomness can makes us bet/play nervous and this merely compounds the problem, so we need help and assistance to alleviate or counter.
So, whilst accepting the speculative nature of wagering how do we turn the tables in our favour? Our view is success demands players enlist a strategy or system to beat the randomness and house edge, whilst using a valid money-management approach. The keeping of records is non-negotiable representing a road map of ones betting history. The bet that accompanies an edge/mathematics should be placed in a calm moment with the right mindset.
Successful professional catalogue
Successful professionals acquire a state-of-mind that is unaffected by recent losses as well as the highs of big wins, so apart from due diligence and focus what characterises this mindset? There are many things to consider but the below is our starting point:
- Accept mathematics are the governing force of sports betting
- Find an edge/value!
- Complete acceptance of risk then create a set aside bank (never bet with scared money)
- Prepare meticulously
- Decision-making must be done in a calm moment, removing mental clutter and negative inertia, free of extraneous thoughts
- Maintain consistency and equanimity
- Be free of any emotional attachment to recent bets and not allow outcomes of previous bets to influence the next one or series of bets
- Cease recreational betting/fun bets. Keep records of every wager with basic information - stake, win, loss, profit and loss should be four of those columns.
- Losing runs are inevitable and a reality of the game - accept, look, learn from them, treat them as experience events.
The above is extremely hard to embrace yet alone adopt, but that is the challenge if one wishes to be part the 2% Club. The Racing Horse does not claim to be an absolute authority, we do have a genuine experience of the industry that stands up to scrutiny and part of the 2% who profit from wagering which counts for plenty. The Racing Horse launched in June 2011 and the fact we are 9-years old carries a certain gravitas.
We remain certain that winning from betting is 100% discipline, attitude and determination and sensible, repeatable mathematical practices assisted wherever possible by good information. None of the above is new but accepting this veritable core must make sense. Our personal betting is totally contained within this assemblage.
Our information is available for just 33p per day. There are no adds/affiliations on the site, we do not chase members, we do not sell anything, we have no need to do that. The cost of membership does not even cover the cost of running the site basic as it is - we use this vehicle to share our bets, rationale and thought processes. Our feedback and interest is generally appreciative though any site like this one will come under attack from time to time and the nature of the beast!
Our NO RISK mentality means we do not suffer fatigue and debilitation. The PACAFI strategy will not suffer fatigue either because of its sound principles and solid core that applied to betting 20 years ago, apply now and will apply in 2027.
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THE RACING HORSE
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.