PACAFI (5 January 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

LA TIHATY 1.10 Lingfield 

  Ladbrokes Watch Racing Online For Free Novice Stakes (Class 5) (3yo) 7f1y


 E32,000 F, £60,000 Y; first foal; dam French 1m3f winner, half-sister to 10.5f Listed winner Capitaine Courage and Listed-placed 7f/1m winner Neuquen out of 1m winning sister to 1m7f Listed winner Double Green

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 2-4 for 50%          (10)
National average: 19%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%            (10)
RPR: 88                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard           (10)         
Optimum Distance: 7f to 1m         (10)
Jockey: Jack Mitchell              (10)
National Average: 15%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 20%        (10)  
Total:                            (100)

Main danger: Melody Of Life

Course and distance near miss, massive improvement expected

This looks between La Tihaty and Melody Of Life. The former made his debut over the track and trip a fortnight ago and didn't get the run of the race when beaten a length. He is a first foal of a French middle-distance winner who badly needed the experience when coming away with his main market rivals and will have learned so much for that run.

Working well on Warren Hill

He is expected to improve massively but we are surprised he took this 7f engagement instead of Thursday where there was a Novice race over 1m½f at Wolverhampton that might have suited more. Our reading of the situation is trainer Roger Varian must think he has Melody Of Life covered and this is an obvious winning opportunity. We know our Pacafi will hit the line hard so the onus on Jack Mitchell to get a position out of the stalls. It has been reported that La Tihaty has been working well on Warren Hill.


Ian Balding's charge followed a promising debut at Kempton with a narrow defeat at Chelmsford and looks certain to be there at the finish. Got No Dollars is related to a couple of winners though it's Escapement who catches the eye on breeding as she's by Invincible Spirit out of a mare who won on the all-weather in France and is from a top-class family.


 LA TIHATY rates the form pick on his C&D second so looks the one to focus on with a fair bit of improvement in the pipeline too having run very green that day. Melody of Life rates a solid place prospect once more, while Ralph Beckett's Escapement appeals as the pick of the newcomers and is worth monitoring in the betting.

 The 6/4 looks north of perceived value and would have taken 5/4. If our rationale is correct he could start odds on. We are expecting our Pacafi to improve massively from his course and distance debut.


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