ALBUM 2.04 Chelmsford at 4/5

  betfred.com Nifty Fifty Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+ 0-65) 6f

Pedigree

 22,000gns Nkt Feb 20; first foal; dam Qatar 5.5f winner (placed 6f at 2 in GB; RPR 55), sister to 7f AW winner Areeda (dam of 7f Group 3 winner Great Page) out of Group-placed 6f 2yo winning half-sister to 6f 2yo Group 2 winner Please Sing

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 5-9 for 56%          (10)
National average: 11%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%            (10)
OR & RPR: 68 & 80                  (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard           (10)         
Optimum Distance: 6f               (10)
Jockey: Marco Ghiani                (9)
National Average: 15%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 10%             (9)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 13%        (10)  
Total:                             (98)

Main danger: Sir Hector

Rack up a sequence?

The Racing Horse rarely gets involved with Class 6 Handicaps because these low grade horses do not reproduce their form but our Pacafi looks to have a bit in hand and looks to be progressive with a trainer in the very best form. Timeform suggests this one could rack up a sequence and we understand that thought process and if winning easily tomorrow might run again at Lingfield on Tuesday 12 January 2021 though we are not sure the 5f is optimum distance given the way he finished his race last time out!

Trainer form

Trainer form is the most important part of a bet as far as we are concerned, and heavily influenced us to strike this wager. We look at the form of the trainers with the top 2 horses that have winning chances:

Stuart Williams
January 2021:   5 wins from  9 runners for 56% (+12.03)
December 2020:  2 wins from 19 runners for 11% (-10.20)
Total:          7 wins from 28 runners for 25%  (+1.83)
Charlie Wallis:
January 2021:   0 wins from  8 runners for  0%  (-8.00)
December 2020:  1 win  from 19 runners for  5% (-15.50)
Total:          1 win  from 27 runners for  4% (-23.50)

Progressive for trainer in form

Album is clearly progressive and just needs to translate his Wolverhampton form to the Chelmsford surface. Stuart Williams’ yard is enjoying a purple patch and his charge won by nearly four lengths over this distance and it is likely he will be raised more than today’s 5lb penalty in the future so can go in again with jockeys Marco Ghiani offsetting the penalty with his 5lbs claim. He has impressed us in the saddle recently and his average numbers at the course are satisfactory for an apprentice like him and his experience, he has stall 2 to help him find the rail and position so does not have to come around the houses. He is in the form of his life and shows 7-15 for 47% since 28 December 2020.

Contenders

Looking at our five rivals a case can be made for all if the cards fall right but we have Sir Hector as the main danger. Bernie's Boy denied Sir Hector a hat-trick when scoring by a short-head here just three days ago, with Daysaq further behind, and also carries a penalty but Storm Melody and Flip Mode are harder to recommend.

Timeform

 ALBUM won in good style at Wolverhampton on Monday and could rack up a sequence. Sir Hector had his hat-trick bid thwarted by Bernie's Boy earlier in the week but wasn't seen to best effect and should go well. There is a race in Daysaq.

 The 4/5 secured looks value though we hope to improve on prices on the exchange where 1.86 is readily available (00.31).

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