FLEMENSTIDE 4.10 Exeter at Evens

  MansionBet Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Class 5) (4-6yo) 2m175y

Pedigree

 €110,000 F, €325,000 3yo; first foal; dam unraced sister to French 2m5f Listed chase winner Lucky To Be, half-sister to 2m-2m4f hurdle/top-class chase winner Master Minded and useful jump winners Hautclan (2m1f-2m5f) and Good Spirit (2m-2m1f)

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 7-17 for 41%         (10)
National average: 24%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%            (10)
RPR: 130                           (10)
Optimum Ground: Soft               (10)         
Optimum Distance: 2m               (10)
Jockey: Harry Cobden               (10)
National Average: 20%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 25%        (10)  
Total:                            (100)

Main danger: Top Of The Bill

 €325,000 purchase racing for £2,274 in a Class 5 bumper

The Racing Horse has been waiting the reappearance of Flemenstide and would have backed it in a 5f sprint at Southwell. His debut was more than eye catching as he stayed on stoutly in the final furlong, having run green and been outpaced earlier in the straight. A 325,000euro purchase, he's out of an unraced half-sister to the yard's 2m-2m4f hurdle/top-class chase winner Master Minded and looks an exciting prospect. He was beaten by No Ordinary Joe on that debut and we do not believe there is anything of that calibre in this race. 

Hard to beat - Paul Nicholls

Paul Nicholls confirmed: "He is a lovely prospect who made a highly pleasing debut in a good bumper in testing ground at Sandown. After running a bit green turning for home he stayed on well all the way to the line to finish second to a hot favourite No Ordinary Joe. Flemenstide looks to have improved for the experience and should be hard to beat."

Trainer Form

After being informed that Paul Nicholls has been giving some of his horses their flu injections we anticipated a quiet time for the trainer but not so! On Saturday he landed a 10,419-1 seven-timer highlighted by a pair of Kempton Grade 2 wins. 

Negatives

Just one small negative, the trainer has scored 170 winners from 692 runners for 25% at Exeter but we were surprised to find he shows just 6-52 for 12% with his NHF runners at this course, and equally surprised that Harry Cobden records 22-157 for 14% in NHF races. These two figures measure poorly against national averages of 24% and 20% respectively!

Contenders

We are not sure who the main danger is but it could be Top Of The Bill for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He made an encouraging start when third of 13 in bumper at 14/1 at Ascot on good to soft ground in November. Fergal O’Brien had a couple of bumper winners on Friday and Landen Calling is certain to improve on his debut at Uttoxeter, though has had a couple of months off. They both have stronger form than Barbarian, second here on his introduction. No Word Of A Lie and Kicksaftersix are nicely-bred newcomers worth a market check.

Timeform

FLEMENSTIDE shaped very well when second on his Sandown debut in November and can go one better now with improvement on the cards. Top of The Bill is the obvious danger after his promising third at Ascot. Landen Calling is another who showed plenty of ability on debut and completes the shortlist.

The even money secured must contain perceived value if the form of the debut is to be believed. We know there are flu injections taking place at the stables but Saturday was such a good day for Paul Nicholls we have set that aside, and we doubt he would risk his 325,000€ purchase if there was an issue.

Force Ten - not today!

Tomorrow also sees our horse Force Ten in back action but we will just be watching the run and will have no wager. After some encouraging early noises he is taking his time coming to hand though we are convinced he has talent. Our hope is he comes home safe and a better round of jumping and running on to finish third.

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How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 7 Flemenstide         2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +3.35  S/R  71%
 6 Album               1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +2.35  S/R  67%
 5 Castlebar           1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +1.55  S/R  60%
 4 Batraan             2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.75  S/R  50%
 3 La Tihaty           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.75  S/R  67%
 2 Shimmering Dawn     4.30  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.25  S/R  50%
 1 Australis           2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +1.25  S/R 100%