PACAFI (14 January 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

FATHER OF JAZZ 6.00 Chelmsford at 4/6

Racing Welfare Novices Stakes (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m2f


 Second foal; half-brother to 2m1f/2m4f hurdle winner Dequall; dam unraced sister to five winners inc Beyond Conceit (10.4f 2yo/1m4f Flat/smart hurdle), Min Alemarat (11.6f) and Novalina (1m4f/1m6f) out of 11.4f Listed winning half-sister to Pilsudski

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 3-9 for 33%          (10)
National average: 19%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%            (10)
RPR: 95                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard           (10)         
Optimum Distance: 1m2f             (10)
Jockey: Callum Shepherd            (10)
National Average: 10%               (9)
Course Strike Rate: 14%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 30%        (10)  
Total:                             (99)

Main danger: Makeen

Expected to defy a penalty

Father Of Jazz has displayed a fair amount of ability on both starts to date and now looks to defy a penalty having returned from a lay-off to land the odds with a cosy success at Wolverhampton. He travelled particularly well throughout the race after gaining a good pitch but looked in danger of being boxed in coming into the straight, but he showed some courage going through a gap up the rail to win comfortably in the end. Roger Varian's colt looks a nice prospect for this year and is expected to back those performances up and prove too strong for his rivals. 

Roger Varian on his Wolverhampton winner!

Father Of Jazz was well supported in the market and he justified favouritism under a cool ride from Callum Shepherd to win his second career start with a little in hand. Sent of 4/11, Father Of Jazz was having his first start for 200days. His first start was in a 10f maiden at Sandown in June, when trained by Michael Bell, and he showed plenty of promise that day, finishing second to Mambo Nights who went on to win his next two starts. 

Jockey Callum Shepherd secured a nice position on the rail just in behind the leader Moohareeba, who despite being slowly in stride, circumnavigated the field to take up the lead. As they swung into the straight it looked for a moment as though Father Of Jazz might be short of room on the rail, but Callum had plenty of horse underneath him and once he made his move, the pair always looked in command. Father Of Jazz is the second foal our of the Galileo mare Bark; his half-brother is a two-time winner over hurdles and there is plenty of stamina down the page, so this colt by Kingman may stretch out in distance as a four-year-old next season.

Trainer and jockey form

Roger Varian is 3-9 for 33% in the last 14 days. He has a high national average of 19% and at Chelmsford he shows 28-174 for 16% so below his average. Callum Shepherd has a national average of 10% but he has impressed us in the last 12 months and is far better than that score. He rides the AW very well and now attracting the top trainers, at Chelmsford he records 40-283 for 14% and a massive level stake profit of +126.53. When he combines with Roger Varian they show 3-10 for 30%.


Makeen steps up in distance on the back of a decent debut effort over 7f at Wolverhampton and looks to be the main danger. Top Drop went close over a mile at Kempton on his first start after wind surgery and is preferred to Vanity Affair while the newcomer Victory Star’s dam is related to the smart Sheikhzayedroad.


FATHER OF JAZZ got off the mark on yard debut at the end of last month and he is difficult to oppose under a penalty. He could progress further and should be able to double up. Top Drop seems to be a different horse on polytrack compared to turf and he shouldn't be far away. Makeen may improve to play a part too.

Anything north of 8/11 or 1.72 plus is perceived value although we are already securing 1.82 to 1.90 on the Betfair Exchange. That MUST be value!

Father Of Jazz traded at a high of 1.46 and BSP of 1.44 when winning last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.


Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

The Racing Horse shows the literal results of the Pacafi for 2020. These literal results show a worst-case scenario position which does not reflect the true value, practicality and strength of the strategy (or our personal profits), so we take this opportunity to explain why we record and highlight the finishing positions of the Pacafi, and the absolute relevance of finishing first or second.

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 8 Father Of Jazz      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.07  S/R  75%
 7 Flemenstide         2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +3.35  S/R  71%
 6 Album               1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +2.35  S/R  67%
 5 Castlebar           1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +1.55  S/R  60%
 4 Batraan             2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.75  S/R  50%
 3 La Tihaty           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.75  S/R  67%
 2 Shimmering Dawn     4.30  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.25  S/R  50%
 1 Australis           2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +1.25  S/R 100%

JANUARY: 8  WIN: 6  LOSE: 2  S/R 75%  PROFIT: +4.07

(12121111)   FINISHED First or Second (100%)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *