PACAFI (17 January 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

GHOST RIDER 1.35 Southwell at 8/11

Get Your Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boost Novice Stakes (Class 5) (3yo) 7f14y


 £55,000 Y; fourth foal; half-brother to winners Swindler (6f; RPR 104), Akbar Shah (6f; 91) and Trilliant (88); dam 6f/6.5f winner (inc at 2/AW; 91), half-sister to 6f Group 1 winner Tante Rose out of 6f/7f Listed winner

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 7-25 for 28%         (10)
National average: 16%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%            (10)
RPR: 74                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard           (10)         
Optimum Distance: 7f               (10)
Jockey: P J McDonald               (10)
National Average: 13%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (9)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 15%        (10)  
Total:                             (99)

Main danger: Driftwood

Open to massive improvement

Ghost Rider is a half-brother to three winners with peak RPRs of 88-104, and the dam was a 6f-6.5f winner (91). He has taken a while to make the track so has obviously been held up with a problem or two. The colt is well bred and shaped most encouragingly when second of 9 in novice event at this course over 6f on debut 9 days ago, when finishing like an absolute trainer from a mile back after missing the start. It is worth noting he started as the 3/1 second favourite so was expected to go close as it was but now open to massive improvement! 

One slight negative

His jockey did give the colt a lot to do in the race and everything looked manic so the 9 day turnaround is not ideal, but somehow we doubt this will stop this son of Dark Angel winning. Ben Curtis has been lined up to ride a lot more of Johnston's horses for this year but not available today for some reason, had he ridden Ghost Rider and rested for 14 days plus we would have gone in maximum stakes such is our confidence.

Trainer form

The Racing Horse is not a fan of Mark Johnston or his modus operandi and it is rare we bet his horses, but this one looks a winner in waiting. January does show an impressive 10-28 for a massive 36% and a level stake profit of +24.78. Johnston has recorded 243 winners from 1195 for a big 20% at Southwell and that is a good 4% above his national average. He sends 2 to the track today and could easily have a win double. Today's jockey is P J McDonald and his combination with the trainer show 15% which is above his national average and course strike rate. It is not his favourite AW course though where he scores 46-417 for 11%. 

Mark Johnston has revealed once again that thoughts of his retirement are never far from his mind and we will not mourn his passing, in fact we will have an extra glass of wine that day!


GHOST RIDER shaped well amidst greenness when second on his debut here last week and has to the considered the one to beat with improvement forthcoming. Waltzing didn't look the finished article at Wolverhampton in November, so may do better still for his new yard, while newcomers Mellys Flyer and Johnny Boom require market checks.

This bet is all about price. The Pacafi acts on Fibresand, is about to step forward massively and this could be a very weak Class 5 Novice for the course. It is hard to imagine a newcomer matching the debut of our wager. We had hoped to nick a bit of 4/5 but happy with 8/11. 1.83 was available on Betfair Exchange but that was gobbled up very quickly.


Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

The Racing Horse shows the literal results of the Pacafi for 2020. These literal results show a worst-case scenario position which does not reflect the true value, practicality and strength of the strategy (or our personal profits), so we take this opportunity to explain why we record and highlight the finishing positions of the Pacafi, and the absolute relevance of finishing first or second.

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

10 Ghost Rider         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  80%
 9 Next Destination    1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +4.98  S/R  78%
 8 Father Of Jazz      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.07  S/R  75%
 7 Flemenstide         2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +3.35  S/R  71%
 6 Album               1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +2.35  S/R  67%
 5 Castlebar           1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +1.55  S/R  60%
 4 Batraan             2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.75  S/R  50%
 3 La Tihaty           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.75  S/R  67%
 2 Shimmering Dawn     4.30  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.25  S/R  50%
 1 Australis           2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +1.25  S/R 100%

JANUARY: 10  WIN: 8  LOSE: 2  S/R 80%  PROFIT: +5.70

(1212111111)   FINISHED First or Second (100%)

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