PACAFI (19 January 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

ALPHA THETA 5.10 Southwell at 5/4

Betway Novice Stakes (Class 5) (4yo+) 1m4f14y


Second foal; dam French Group-placed 1m AW/9.7f turf winner (RPR 109), half-sister to useful 1m2f winner Harrovian out of 12.5f Listed winning half-sister to Group 1 winners Alborada and Albanova

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 10-26 for 38%        (10)
National average: 16%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%            (10)
RPR: 92                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard Slow      (10)         
Optimum Distance: 1m4f             (10)
Jockey: Joe Fanning                (10)
National Average: 15%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%            (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 16%        (10)  
Total:                            (100)

Main danger: Talkischeap

Impressive course and distance debut as late 3yo

Alpha Theta made a winning debut when scoring easily over course and distance last month and Mark Johnston’s filly must be hard to beat even with a penalty. The Pacafi was always close to the pace and swept past the favourite inside the last 2f to win with ease. Out of a French Group-placed 1m AW/9.7f turf winner (RPR 109) from the family of Group 1 winners Alborada and Albanova, she may not have beaten a great deal but she could hardly have done it any easier and for a filly with her pedigree the win would have been important.

Trainer form 

The Racing Horse is not a fan of Mark Johnston or his modus operandi and it is rare we bet his horses, but this one looks likely to follow up. Five of his last 6 runners have won such is his great form and January now shows 13-32 for 41% for a level stake profit of +28.51. Johnston has recorded 245 winners from 1197 for a big 20% at Southwell and that is a good 4% above his national average. Today's jockey is the evergreen Joe Fanning and his combination with the trainer show 1335-8223 for 16%, his national average is 15% and at Southwell he records 243-1834 for 13%.


The useful Talkischeap is rated in the 150s over hurdles and fences so is of obvious interest on his Flat debut. The winner of the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m5f in 2019, this trip looks very much on the short side for him. He is still preferred to stablemate Lunar Bounty and Diamond Gait while Soros is a newcomer to note. Deluxe Music has switched yards since scoring in Germany in October and also carries a penalty.


ALPHA THETA got her career off to the perfect start when landing a C&D maiden in December, beating little in the end but getting the job done impressively nevertheless. She's entitled to improve for her powerful stable and gets the nod to make it 2-2. Longsider, on debut for Sir Mark Prescott, and Diamond Gait are also worth a look, whilst Toscan Genius requires close market scrutiny on debut.

Initially we jumped in at 5/4 with Bet365 (so Rule 4 30p in the £) but that was with Longsider in the field. It now looks as though Sir Mark Prescott has withdrawn his runner so as to give favourite owner (Mrs K Rausing) a clear passage with Alpha Theta who is seeking to add to her breeding value! Without the Prescott runner the 10/11 taken looks great value and once again we considered going maximum stakes. Really looks like the filly just needs a kind trip to collect.

Our guess is Longsider is ready to run on the AW and will be out at the earliest opportunity and one that would be of interest to us.


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The Racing Horse shows the literal results of the Pacafi for 2020. These literal results show a worst-case scenario position which does not reflect the true value, practicality and strength of the strategy (or our personal profits), so we take this opportunity to explain why we record and highlight the finishing positions of the Pacafi, and the absolute relevance of finishing first or second.

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

11 Alpha Theta         1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +6.61  S/R  82%
10 Ghost Rider         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  80%
 9 Next Destination    1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +4.98  S/R  78%
 8 Father Of Jazz      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.07  S/R  75%
 7 Flemenstide         2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +3.35  S/R  71%
 6 Album               1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +2.35  S/R  67%
 5 Castlebar           1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +1.55  S/R  60%
 4 Batraan             2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.75  S/R  50%
 3 La Tihaty           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.75  S/R  67%
 2 Shimmering Dawn     4.30  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.25  S/R  50%
 1 Australis           2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +1.25  S/R 100%

JANUARY: 11  WIN: 9  LOSE: 2  S/R 82%  PROFIT: +6.61

(12121111111)   FINISHED First or Second (100%)

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