Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) 3m1½f (Saturday 30 January 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Cheltenham is confident of beating the cold snap but Saturday's Trials day fixture is expected to be run on heavy ground. Whilst snow and freezing temperatures have forced many tracks to inspect their midweek fixtures, it will become warmer towards the end of the week but with around 25mm of rain forecast. The Racing Horse will provide the pertinent numbers.

This is a first draft, to be completed before 6pm on Friday...

Coltswold Chase (Grade 2) 3m1½f


17/17: Rated 151 or higher (100%)
12/12: At least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham (100%)
12/12: At least 2 previous chase wins(100%)
12/12: At least 1 previous win in Grade 1-3 race (100%)

16/17: Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 won) (94%)
11/12: At least 8 previous chase runs (92%)
11/12: Rated 153 or higher (92%)
15/17: Won over at least 3m before (fences) (88%)
15/17: Raced in the last 8 weeks (88%)

14/17: Won 2-6 times over fences (82%)
12/17: Priced 7/1 or less (71%)
11/17: Placed favourites (65%)
10/13: Aged 9 or 10yo (77%)

1/17: Winning favourites (6%)

Average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2 

RECENT WINNERS

2020: Santini (13/8f)
2019: Frodon (9/4)
2018: Definitly Red (7/1)
2017: Many Clouds (8/1)
2016: Smad Place (9/2)
2015: Many Clouds (4/1)
2014: The Giant Bolster (6/1)
2013: Cape Tribulation (7/1)
2012: Midnight Chase (11/2)
2011: Neptune Collonges (11/2)
2010: Taranis (16/1)
2009: Joe Lively (11/1)
2008: Knowhere (16/1)
2007: Exotic Dancer (6/1)
2006: See You Sometime (18/1)
2005: Grey Abbey (10/3)
2004: Jair Du Cochet (11/4)

Just one winning favourite in the past 17 years but the average winning SP is only 15/2, this suggests one from the top end of the market winning.

 The top 4 trends show a reoccurrence factor of 53/53 for 100%, whilst the top 9 show 121/128 for 94.53%.

  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: tbc

 Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *