FATHER OF JAZZ 2.40 Lingfield at 8/11

 Betway Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-90) 1m2f

Pedigree

Second foal; half-brother to 2m1f/2m4f hurdle winner Dequall; dam unraced sister to five winners inc Beyond Conceit (10.4f 2yo/1m4f Flat/smart hurdle), Min Alemarat (11.6f) and Novalina (1m4f/1m6f) out of 11.4f Listed winning half-sister to Pilsudski

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 2-4 for 50%          (10)
National average: 19%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%            (10)
OR: 90                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard           (10)         
Optimum Distance: 1m2f             (10)
Jockey: Callum Shepherd            (10)
National Average: 10%              (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9%              (9)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 33%        (10)  
Total:                             (99)

Main danger: Oslo

Hat-trick bid and a Group 3 entry

Father Of Jazz attempts to win as a Pacafi for the third time and we certainly hope to confirm a hat-trick of wins with this Roger Varian trained son of Kingman. The Pacafi has an entry in the Betway Winter Derby Stakes over the 1m2f at Lingfield later this month and that is a Group 3, tomorrow he races in a Class 3 Handicap and this looks the perfect place to launch his career.

Cosey winner at Chelmsford last month

The Pacafi is 2-2 in his short career so far for Roger Varian (previously with Michael Bell) and he was well supported on both occasions winning at 4/11 and 1/2. He should maintain his unbeaten record on the all-weather. A cosy scorer at Chelmsford last month, the Kingman colt is progressing nicely and might have been let in lightly off an opening handicap mark of 90. Callum Shepherd keeps the ride for the fourth time.

Roger Varian told us: "Father of Jazz, is proving the stamina in his pedigree, half-brother to a two-time winner over hurdles, and second foal out of the Galileo mare Bark. This Kingman colt has kicked off his four-year-old season with a promising start, and we are excited to see what the rest of the season has in store."

Trainer form

Roger Varian has his horses ticking over nicely, two of his last four have won and three of his last nine also. January showed 7-18 for 39%. His partnership with Callum Shepherd is off to a good start and now 4-12 for 33%. Included in those figures are 2 second places and 2 third places so he is being offered winning opportunities. At the course Varian shows 53-247 for 21% so above his national average of 19%. He runs two tomorrow, the Pacafi and one at Newcastle and will be looking for a win double!

The Roger Varian-trained sprinter KRATOS has done all of his racing at Gosforth Park and is expected to defy a penalty on his return after some nice work on the Al Bahathri. We could not consider him a Pacafi given the jockey booking of Gavin Ashton but that is not to say he will not win...

Contenders

Society Red beat Oslo (second) here two weeks ago and may not confirm that form, while 10yo Pactolus is most likely to struggle against these largely more unexposed rivals.

Timeform

 This can go to Roger Varian's progressive FATHER OF JAZZ, who followed up at Chelmsford just over 3 weeks ago and can complete a hat-trick moving into handicaps with further improvement a distinct possibility. There was just a head between Society Red and Oslo over C&D a fortnight ago and Mick Appleby's charge is narrowly preferred for the forecast spot.

The 8/11 looks real perceived value, we had priced the Pacafi at 8/13. With just 4 runners over a distance of 1m2f there is always the chance of a tactical or false run race but our bet looks best equipped to deal with that scenario...

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How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 2 Father Of Jazz      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.29  S/R 100%
 1 Carrothers          1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +0.57  S/R 100%

17 Tamborrada          1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  +5.91  S/R  71%
16 Moohareeba          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +5.38  S/R  69%
15 Going Places        2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +4.01  S/R  67%
14 Allart              1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +5.01  S/R  71%
13 La Thihaty          1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  +6.01  S/R  77%
12 Symbolic Power      2.20  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +5.61  S/R  75%
11 Alpha Theta         1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +6.61  S/R  82%
10 Ghost Rider         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  80%
 9 Next Destination    1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +4.98  S/R  78%
 8 Father Of Jazz      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.07  S/R  75%
 7 Flemenstide         2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +3.35  S/R  71%
 6 Album               1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +2.35  S/R  67%
 5 Castlebar           1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +1.55  S/R  60%
 4 Batraan             2.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.75  S/R  50%
 3 La Tihaty           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +1.75  S/R  67%
 2 Shimmering Dawn     4.30  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.25  S/R  50%
 1 Australis           2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +1.25  S/R 100%