Pedigree

 £75,000 Goffs Nov 20; third foal; sister to bumper winner Suvretta; dam unraced half-sister to very useful 1m4f-2m Flat/2m-2m4f hurdles winner Sesenta and bumper/hurdle winners William Henry (smart 2m-2m5f) and Electric Concorde (useful 2m4f/3m)

Created a good impression at Thurles

This nicely bred Yeats filly created a particularly good impression in winning first time up at Thurles on soft ground in November before being sold out of S. Curling's yard for £75,000 later that month and seems certain to improve. She has to concede 7lbs to all of her rivals but she looks up to successfully giving these weight and a beating judged on the manner of that success in Ireland. She won by eight lengths beating a point-to-point winner who had more experience, and the daughter of Yeats could be fairly smart.

Quickened in good style

Looking at the Thurles win she travelled well through the race and moved strongly into contention early in the straight. She didn't come off the bridle to go to the front and quickened clear in the style of a good filly inside the last. How strong a race it was is questionable, but the runner-up had been second in a bumper here the previous month and the third was apparently fancied, so it's a pretty good sign that she beat them so easily. She looks interesting going forward.

After the race Sam Curling told us: "She has done everything right at home and was just ready to start. That's her first gallop on grass but we were expecting a good run and we fancied her well. She is a good filly. She was actually entered in a point to point last weekend but she was showing so much pace we said we'd come here. She'll be sold now."

Trainer form

This really looks a two-horse race and apart from the strength of the Thurles victory our confidence was heightened by the form of trainer Laura Morgan and especially in comparison to her main rival.

Laura Morgan
February:  6 wins from 13 runners for 46% (+11.30)
January:   2 wins from  8 runners for 25%  (-0.25)
Total:     8 wins from 21 runners for 38% (+11.05)
.
S R B Crawford:
February:  2 wins from 23 runners for  9% (+13.00)
January:   1 win  from 15 runners for  7%  (-4.00)
Total:     3 wins from 38 runners for  8%  (+9.00)

Morgan has clearly got her horses in the very best of form and she looks to have a decent mare on her hands. She has a national average of 13% but her NHF runners score at 20% and a fantastic strike rate given her profile. She has only sent 6 horses to Ayr and won once and when Adam Wedge rides for her they combine to score 11 winners from 63 runners for 17% and a figure also above her national average.

Contenders

Condesa is a half-sister to Lieutenant Rocco who won twice over hurdles at 2m 3f and in a chase at 3m. She is wearing a tongue-tie for the first time and receives 7lbs from the Pacafi. We cannot know how good Condesa is so any market support will tell us more, Daryl Jacob is 0-3 when he rides for the trainer.

Timeform

WHERES MAUD GONE won with any amount in hand at Thurles in November and, with her new yard firmly amongst the winners, she's taken to defy a penalty. Stuart Crawford has a fine bumper record, so strong market support for Condesa would put a slightly different slant on matters.

Value

Not a lot to go on form wise but our rationale suggests the 4/5 taken is perceived value.

Wheres Maud Gone traded at a high of 8.60 and BSP of 6.82 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field and travelled strongly early on.

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The Racing Horse shows the literal results of the Pacafi for 2020. These literal results show a worst-case scenario position which does not reflect the true value, practicality and strength of the strategy (or our personal profits), so we take this opportunity to explain why we record and highlight the finishing positions of the Pacafi, and the absolute relevance of finishing first or second.

MARCH: 1  WIN: 1  LOSE: 0  S/R 100%  PROFIT: +0.80

(1)   FINISHED First or Second (100.00%)

FEBRUARY: 16  WIN: 10  LOSE: 6  S/R 63%  PROFIT: +4.05

(1111311121313122)   FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)

JANUARY: 17  WIN: 12  LOSE: 5  S/R 71%  PROFIT: +5.91

(1212111111121F311)   FINISHED First or Second (88.24%)