Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Newcastle RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Tuesday 2 March 2021 and some more pertinent numbers.

Newcastle FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                      Handicap
2yo:    51-154 for 33% (-57.51)    25-78   for 32%   (-5.93)
3yo:   100-209 for 48% (-16.73)   104-306  for 34%   (-7.39)
4yo+:   23-61  for 38%  (-3.70)   217-754  for 29% (-100.68)
Total: 174-424 for 41% (-77.94)   346-1138 for 30% (-114.00)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newcastle for current year
Richard Fahey:   5 wins from 30 for 17%  (+8.75)
Andrew Balding:  4 wins from  8 for 50%  (+6.41)
Keith Dalgleish: 4 wins from 15 for 27%  (+5.87)
Bryan Smart:     3 wins from 11 for 27% (+12.87)
Tracy Waggott:   3 wins from 13 for 23%  (+0.37)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newcastle for past 5 years
Richard Fahey:  76 wins from 616 for 12% (-36.46)
John Gosden:    46 wins from 142 for 32% (-15.21)
Jim Goldie:     46 wins from 424 for 11%  (+5.03)
Mark Johnston:  43 wins from 373 for 12% (-67.60)
Ben Haslam:     36 wins from 283 for 13% (+47.45)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Newcastle for current year 
P J McDonald:   5 wins from 21 for 24% (+22.61)
James Sullivan: 5 wins from 27 for 19% (+21.25)
Jason Hart:     4 wins from 25 for 16%  (-0.92)
Joe Fanning:    3 wins from 10 for 30% (+36.37)
Tony Hamilton:  3 wins from 13 for 23% (+10.00)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Newcastle for past 5 years
Ben Curtis:     83 wins from 472 for 18%  (+32.55)
P J McDonald:   66 wins from 531 for 12% (-104.28)
Daniel Tudhope: 64 wins from 333 for 19%  (-26.28)
Joe Fanning:    60 wins from 425 for 14%   (-5.74)
Andrew Mullen:  51 wins from 556 for  9%  (-43.08)
Newcastle AW show a healthy strike rate for winning 3yo favourites in non-handicaps at around 48% over the past 5 years.

We are always interested when William Haggas sends one to this course, his last 5 year figures show 33-100 for 33% (+16.11). His 3yos show 18-50 for 36% (+13.81). When Silvestre De Sousa (44%), Richard Kingscote (37%) or Ben Curtis (30%) ride for him on the AW surfaces we take notice, they are all profitable combinations. He has no runners today but we expect the 3yo Kodiac gelding BACHAU (120,000gns) to run better than debut at Lingfield on Saturday where we fully expect Ben Curtis to be in the saddle.

  • Ben Curtis is not currently on our this year leader board but he will be shortly. He only has 2 rides today but we expect one of them to win
  • Richard Hannon sends 3 to the course today (303m)
  • Trainer A Brittain is currently 0-32
  • D O'Meara 0-21
  • M Appleby 0-18
  • Jockey Cam Hardie is currently 0-59 (see A Brittain)
  • Ray Dawson 0-37
  • Jack Mitchell 0-21

WHO DARES WIN 4.00 is a smart dual-purpose performer who won the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot last year. Is 3lbs higher than when taking the Northumberland Plate over course and distance in 2019 but showed he's still capable when beaten a neck in a race not run to suit latest. Just the one runner for Alan King and a journey of almost 300 miles. He must be an each way bet to nothing at the current 5/1. Wears cheek pieces for the first time!

Our best bet looks to be the beaten favourite last time out GREAT ESTEEM 4.30 in the first time cheek pieces for the Watson/Hoyle team though as we go to post the 9/4 is gone. We can still find a bit of 2/1. He is a winner at 1m4f on polytrack. Third of 8 behind Madeeh (now a 4lb rise) beaten as the 6/5 favourite on his latest outing over this course and distance in January. We fully expect him to reverse the form.

2021 Cheltenham Festival Home Page

Just a reminder to members our first drafts of the races for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival are on site, please bookmark our Home Page where we have all the links. Setting aside the commentator's curse this is always a good time for us and we are looking to make a profit.


Today's Pacafi: click here

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