CHELMSFORD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (4 March 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Chelmsford RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Thursday 4 March 2021 and some more pertinent numbers.

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Chelmsford FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:    87-200 for 44% (-11.69)   34-75   for 45% (+24.03)
3yo:   102-208 for 49% (-20.24)  141-427  for 33% (-48.90)
4yo+:   40-92  for 43%  (-1.59)  258-746  for 35% (-10.16)
Total: 229-500 for 46% (-33.52)  433-1248 for 35% (-35.03)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford for current year
Stuart Williams: 5 wins from 18 for 28%  (-1.89)
Mark Johnston:   4 wins from  8 for 50% (+12.72)
Tony Carroll:    3 wins from 23 for 13%  (+1.00)
Michael Appleby: 3 wins from 31 for 10% (-21.16)
Roger Varian:    2 wins from  2 for 100% (+0.75)
 
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford for past 5 years
Mark Johnston:   64 wins from 401 for 16%  (-43.07)
Michael Appleby: 59 wins from 514 for 11% (-133.24)
John Gosden:     57 wins from 234 for 24%  (-42.79)
David Simcock:   46 wins from 259 for 18%  (-19.90)
Stuart Williams: 46 wins from 326 for 14%  (-96.02)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford for current year
Rossa Ryan:        5 wins from 14 for 36%  (+8.75)
Callum Shepherd:   4 wins from 15 for 27%  (+1.32)
Franny Norton:     3 wins from  7 for 43% (+16.72)
Richard Kingscote: 3 wins from 11 for 27% (+51.50)
Cameron Noble:     2 wins from  4 for 50%  (+4.25)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford for past 5 years
Luke Morris:  68 wins from 701 for 10% (-297.14)
Oisin Murphy: 59 wins from 271 for 22%  (-25.67)
Adam Kirby:   55 wins from 302 for 18%  (-53.71)
Jim Crowley:  45 wins from 185 for 24%  (-13.13)
P J McDonald: 41 wins from 209 for 20%  (+58.91)
Chelmsford AW show a healthy strike rate for winning favourites full stop. Best category is 3yos in non-handicaps who win almost one in two races, recently it has been up to 50% but just slipped back a point to 49%. Knowing that 46% of favourites in non-handicaps win, that the figures are robust and not likely to suffer fatigue going forward, is an edge we exploit successfully. In total contradiction, we see two current favourites (and things could easily change before post time), getting turned over!

There are 7 races tonight but this time only 4 of them handicaps. The surprise name for us on the 5 year leader board is David Simcock with John Gosden having easily the best strike rate.

Roger Varian sends 2 to the course (2 short priced winners this year from 2 runners) and so does Simon and Ed Crisford, so their horses are worth checking on. William Haggas sends just one and without even looking at the card one imagines a winner or two coming from the five runners. We need to look at those jockey bookings.

The first race 4.50 looks really interesting, it is Fillies' Novice Stakes Class 5 for 3yos. Our racecourse template tells us 50% of favourites in non-handicaps for 3yos win, and currently the Charlie Appleby runner Colour Of Light (Ryan Moore) is favourite at around even money. He has to beat the John Gosden trained Regent (Rob Havlin) at 7/4 and we are not convinced it will happen. Our eyes are drawn to the Crisford filly Aura Blue priced 16/1 at places (much bigger on Betfair) and this 170,000gns yearling, who is a sister to two fair winners and tongue-tied for debut could spring a surprise and break the team's losing run.

Roger Varian is 2-2 at the track this year and tonight his Khuzaam (Jack Mitchell) has to beat the William Haggas trained Nahaarr (Ryan Moore) in the 6.20. All four horses in the race are rated within 1lb of each other, so this race is surely about fitness and tactics.

Timeford comments: "Only four runners but an intriguing contest in which spectacular Ayr Gold Cup victor NAHAARR is taken to make light of his absence and make a winning return en route to tackling better things this season. Hat-trick seeking front-runner Highland Dress has race fitness on his side so will ensure Willie Haggas' upwardly-mobile 5yo doesn't have things all his own way, with Khuzaam rated next best." They may be right but if Jack Mitchell gets his own way up front on Khuzaam he will be the danger and at 9/4 our fancy but without being confident.

  • John Gosden is in form again with 3 of his last 7 runners winning at 8/1, 10/3 and 7/4. He runs Regent 4.50 and Pitcher's Point 7.20
  • Roger Varian also runs two, Cheshire Plain 4.50 and Khuzaam 6.20
  • Simon & Ed Crisford run two in Aura Blue 4.50 and Arij 7.20
  • William Haggas has just the one runner in Nahaarr 6.20
  • Trainer D Ivory is currently 0-68
  • S Durack 0-34
  • M Usher 0-31
  • S & E Crisford 0-24
  • D O'Meara 0-21
  • M Appleby 0-22
  • Jockey William Cox is currently 0-65
  • Cam Hardie 0-61
  • George Downing 0-42
  • George Rooke 0-26
  • Jack Mitchell 0-23

Hollie Doyle looks in great nick but her one poor ride was our best bet Great Esteem when she gambled too early and got collared by old rival Madeeh. We landed a saving stake forecast but one that got away.

Our cold list is getting long with one or two of the individuals named above and one of those could be broken tonight and at a good price.

Ironically after talking about winning favourites at Chelmsford we cannot be confident about any of them and tonight will be a watching brief, there is not a Pacafi today.

2021 Cheltenham Festival Home Page

Just a reminder to members our first drafts of the races for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival are on site, please bookmark our Home Page where we have all the links. Setting aside the commentator's curse this is always a good time for us and we are looking to make a profit.

2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

Today's Pacafi: click here

Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Despite being one of the UK’s newest tracks, Chelmsford City racecourse has already had an eventful history. Originally known as Great Leighs when it opened in April 2008 it was the first entirely new racecourse in the UK since Taunton opened in 1927. It has a Polytrack surface and is essentially galloping in nature, having broad, sweeping turns. It is a left-handed track of just over a mile in circumference, with seven-furlong and one-mile races starting on different spurs.

Since re-opening, prominent tactics have proven an advantage, all the more so in fact over sprint trips. It’s a very popular course with trainers as they see it as being very fair to their horses, some very useful horses make their debut here. It is a lot more of a galloping track than Lingfield, Kempton and Wolverhampton with big sweeping bends and it’s generally a very fair place where there isn’t many hard luck stories.

Chelmsford edge

Favourites in non-handicaps have great strike rates at the course but especially the 3yos who score 122-246 for 50% and a level stake. KNOWING this age group win 1 in 2 at this course is an edge.

Top trainers

Regarding winners Mark Johnston is the top trainer with 78-503 for 16%. Trainers to watch at the course include Saeed bin Suroor 56-185 for 30%, Charlie Appleby 34-128 for 27%, John Gosden 67-267 for 25%, Michael Stoute 41-175 for 23%,  and William Haggas 48-217 for 22%.

Top jockeys

Based on a huge number of rides Luke Morris is top jockey at Chelmsford over the past 5 seasons with 97-933 for 10%. Adam Kirby is not far behind despite half the rides and he shows 83-461 for 18%. Oisin Murphy shows 75-368 for 20%, Jim Crowley 74-317 for 24% and Silvestre De Sousa 71-351 for 20%. Ryan Moore scores 47-130 for 36%.

Jason Weaver on Chelmsford

Nobody can fault the layout of Chelmsford, because it’s superb, absolutely immaculate, with lovely turns and a good long straight. You’d struggle to find a horse that can’t handle the sweep of the bends and you can ride into them as hard as you can anywhere. Lots of people have noticed there’s been a pace bias, making it hard to come from behind, and that the kickback was severe. That should change now they’re working on resurfacing and, potentially, it’s as good an all-weather venue as you’ll find.

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Today's Pacafi: click here

Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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