BREATH OF SUN 2.36 Lingfield at 11/8

 Betway Novice Stakes (Class 5) 6f1y

The RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 6-27 for 22%          (10)
National average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%              (9)
RPR: 88                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 6f                        (10)
Jockey: Adam Kirby                  (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 15%         (10)  
Total:                              (99)

Main Danger: If You Dare

Tanked through the contest and loved the surface

Breath Of Sun whose price increased to 60,000GBP as a yearling, is a half-brother to two winners out of a maiden half-sister to Group 3 winner Prolific. The Bated Breath colt had a breathing operation ahead of this debut and was supported in the market. He tanked through the contest and found a nice split between horses at the top of the straight in putting this matter quickly to bed. He could be a decent type and his RPR of 88 sets him up to better that on his second start. Must be hard to beat with Adam Kirby up unless the newcomer is more than decent!

Trainer form

Clive Cox has made a very good start to 2021. His national average is 14% so his 22% since 1st January is both impressive and significant.

March:      1 win  from  3 for 33%  (-1.20)
February:   2 wins from  9 for 22% (+15.14)
January:    3 wins from 15 for 20%  (-4.80)
Total:      6 wins from 27 for 22%  (+9.14)

Cox's strike rate at Lingfield is not as good at 11% but this is a 4 runner race where his charge is the only winner in the race and a course and distance winner at that! Handling the course is one thing but a course and distance winner is worth bonus points...

Contenders

If You Dare is a 16,000 gns foal, €62,000 yearling, Equiano colt. Brother to 7f winner Hidden Affair and closely related to winner up to 7f Among Angels. Dam 11.6f winner so clearly an interesting debutant and this really does look between the two though we accept Zwelela retains potential but has a bit to prove.

Timeform

IF YOU DARE makes appeal on paper and could be up to the job on debut for a yard that knows how to ready one. Breath of Sun made a winning start in good style over C&D in January and is slightly preferred to Zwelela for forecast purposes.

Value

We believe the course and distance win on debut means the Pacafi should be the outright Pacafi and not the current favourite If You Dare. The colt recorded a RPR of 88 so promises to hit the 90s on this occasion meaning the Mark Johnston debutant will have to better that. If it does then fair play and we will take the hit...

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