EXETER RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (9 March 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Exeter Racecourse Template for Tuesday 9 March 2021.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)
Hurdle:   61-117 for 52%  (-6.67)   45-140 for 32%  (-4.78)
Chase:    26-56  for 46%  (-9.00)   43-116 for 37% (+22.60)
NHF:      11-35  for 31%  (-8.48)    0-0   for  - 
Total:    98-208 for 47% (-24.16)   88-256 for 34% (+17.82)

TOP TRAINERS at Exeter for current season
Paul Nicholls: 7 wins from 17 for 41%  (+6.11)
Colin Tizzard: 5 wins from 32 for 16% (-20.82)
Harry Fry:     3 wins from  7 for 43%  (+4.75)
John Farrelly: 3 wins from 11 for 27%  (-1.75)
Kim Bailey:    3 wins from 11 for 27%  (+2.95)

TOP TRAINERS at Exeter for past 5 years
Paul Nicholls: 36 wins from 115 for 31%  (-9.08)
Philip Hobbs:  33 wins from 205 for 16% (-76.10)
Colin Tizzard: 31 wins from 195 for 16% (-71.89)
Harry Fry:     23 wins from  77 for 30% (+26.51)
David Pipe:    18 wins from 177 for 10% (-75.48)

TOP JOCKEYS at Exeter for current season
Harry Cobden: 8 wins from 26 for 31%  (-1.60)
Sean Bowen:   6 wins from 12 for 50% (+24.25)
David Bass:   5 wins from 14 for 36%  (+9.45)
Joshua Moore: 4 wins from  6 for 67% (+32.67)
Robbie Power: 4 wins from 19 for 21%  (-9.10)

TOP JOCKEYS at Exeter for past 5 seasons
Richard Johnson:  26 wins from 166 for 16% (-82.27)
Harry Cobden:     25 wins from 134 for 19% (-47.95)
Tom Scudamore:    20 wins from 167 for 12% (-59.81)
S Twiston-Davies: 19 wins from  84 for 23%  (+0.91)
Tom O'Brien:      15 wins from 113 for 13% (-46.73)

Winning favourites in non-handicap hurdles show a fabulous 52% strike rate so the first place to start when looking at the card. That said, there is still a loss to level stakes so filtration and finding that elusive value is key, as always!

The combination of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden reign supreme at Exeter so a little surprising that Nicholls has only one runner at the course today in Zyon 2.40, to be ridden by Harry Cobden, but he has 6 lined up for Wincanton on Thursday. We say a little surprising because the going is good to soft and good in places at Exeter.

We are always interested in the runners of Harry Fry who scores at 30% over the past 5 years. He runs just one also in Our Surprise 1.35 to be ridden by Daryl Jacob.

  • Oliver Greenall brings two to the course in North Point and Nuriel 3.40 and travelled 200 miles to do so
  • Trainer Mrs N Evans is currently 0-118
  • Alexandra Dunn 0-80
  • Miss J Du Plessis 0-62
  • K Woollacott 0-47
  • Mrs R Gasson 0-45
  • Jockey Sean Houlihan is currently 0-45
  • Kieron Edgar is 0-44
  • Ben Jones 0-31
  • James Best 0-29

Perhaps the most interesting horse running at Exeter today is KILLER KANE 1.35 for Colin Tizzard, currently trading at 6/4 (Bet365). The race lacks depth and this son of Oscar cost £300,000 really ought to be winning a weak maiden like this. Forgetting his last run he is taken to confirm the promise of his hurdle debut second in the autumn. He has to beat the Harry Fry runner Our Surprise. Killer Kane still has two speculative Cheltenham entries but we doubt he will be going though words like windmill and tilting spring to mind...

A real concern for Tizzard must be the form of his horses.

COLIN TIZZARD form for 2021
March:      0-15  for 0% (-15.00)
February:   5-53  for 9% (-13.76)
January:    0-35  for 0% (-35.00)
Total:      5-103 for 5% (-63.76)

These figures are pitiful and we will not be considering any of his runners at Cheltenham next week. Worth reminding ourselves, like Killer Kane, he has many horses that cost serious money so we know he has the raw material. His national average is 13% but he has only matched that strike rate in a month once since August 2020.

2020/21: 30-346 for  9% (-153.61)     £476,531
2019/20: 61-407 for 15% (-131.00)   £1,216,570
2018/19: 77-600 for 13% (-127.89)   £1,888,757
2017/18: 79-536 for 15% (-159.35)   £1,975,899

As always we look for context and the figures above gives us that. He runs 4 at the course today and it will interesting to note their finishing positions!

Trainer Philip Hobbs favourite racecourse from a win perspective is Exeter where he has scored 278-1386 for a big 20% which is 3% above his national average. He runs two more at the course and both are worth a look re Larkbarrow Lad 2.40 and Vango De Vaige 3.10 and both will be ridden by Richard Johnson.

*

 Today's Pacafi: click here

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *