PACAFI (10 March 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

DANCING KING 5.45 Kempton at 10/11

 Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap (Class 4) 1m2f219y


 18,000gns Y; 13th foal; closely related to 1m/10.5f winner Sea Swift (RPR 103), half-brother to 9 winners inc Starstruck (1m1f-10.6f Ire/US Gr 3; 103) and Scarlet O'Hara (7f; 92); dam 6f 2yo Listed/5f Group 3 winner (112), sister to 6f Gr 2 winner Areion


Trainer Form: 4-22 for 18%          (10)
National average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%              (9)
RPR: 102                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 1m2f+                     (10)
Jockey: Ben Curtis                  (10)
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 10%              (8)
Trainer & Jockey Combo AW: 15%      (10)  
Total:                              (97)

Main Danger: Side Shot

Startling performance, promising more to come!

The performance of Dancing King at Wolverhampton was in the startling category! He had previously hinted at ability in maiden and novice company. Then newly gelded and up in trip after 97 days off, he was much improved despite still being green, losing ground at the start and wandering under pressure yet still thrashing his four rivals. He's clearly much better than his opening mark and should improve plenty more, he might be smart and we have set aside his 18,000gns price tag as a yearling.

Kempton to suit

It is possible also that the Kempton course and surface will suit more than Wolverhampton, when he came into the straight he took off to the right and this time he has a right hand track and he will not have to search for the rail drawn one.

Ben Curtis

We surprised regarding jockey Ben Curtis and his numbers at the course. On the AW courses there are only a few better than him and we always feel confident with him riding a Pacafi, but he returns just 10% at the course and way below his national average of 15%! Lingfield shows just 8% and those are George Rooke numbers!

Southwell:    100-517 for 19% (+96.98)
Newcastle:     90-569 for 16% (-23.33)
Chelmsford:    24-163 for 15% (+25.45)
Wolverhampton: 55-513 for 11% (-66.97)
Kempton:       18-173 for 10% (-63.63)
Lingfield:     14-165 for  8% (-77.00)

He rode 170 winners last year at 16% and has made a reasonable start with his high profile connection with Mark Johnston currently showing 10-69 for 14% (+0.15) in total but 4-24 for 17% (-4.30) for 2021. One imagines the 14% strike rate will need to be a little higher this spring especially if comparing the 18% Joe Fanning has with Johnston.

Trainer form

Mark Johnston has his horses well and his last 14 days show 4-22 for 18% so nicely above his national average of 16%. At Kempton he records 143-1039 for 14% so 2% light, but worth pointing out his numbers for 2021 which are huge showing 29-101 for 29% and a level stake profit of +37.54. He sends out 5 tomorrow, 3 at Lingfield and 2 at Kempton.


Side Shot looks a progressive juvenile who gamely landed 9.5f Wolverhampton novice before excellent second in 1m1f Newmarket nursery in October. He has more to offer now up in trip so much respected even though off the track for 130 days. Wallem is a Sea The Moon colt and built on juvenile promise when landing 9.5f maiden at Wolverhampton at 6/4 favourite 51 days ago, well on top at the finish. Should improve now going into handicaps up in trip.


Most of these offer potential but DANCING KING is impossible to oppose under a 6lbs penalty after spread-eagling his field in a Wolverhampton handicap over this trip last week. John Gosden's Side Shot progressed well as a juvenile so is feared most on his return now stepping up in trip, with Wallem another to consider on his handicap bow.


We believe the 10/11 is on the north side of perceived value but we cannot be sure on this occasion. We are fiddling with prices between 10/11 and 11/10 currently but if a winner will log at even money (not best price guaranteed) which is easily available. There are 6 bookmakers offering 11/10.

Current strike rate of favourites at this course over the last 12 months: 216-675 for 32%



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