The Racing Horse offers our Wolverhampton RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Saturday 20 March 2021 and some more pertinent numbers. Tomorrow includes a 8-race card starting at 5.00pm first race.
Wolverhampton FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo: 103-240 for 43% (-24.95) 35-101 for 35% (+8.39) 3yo: 140-323 for 43% (-53.19) 197-600 for 33% (-45.74) 4yo+: 81-183 for 44% (-1.70) 337-1111 for 30% (-84.30) Total: 324-746 for 43% (-79.84) 569-1812 for 31% (-121.65)
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Wolverhampton for current year Mark Johnston: 9 wins from 32 for 28% (+0.05) David Evans: 8 wins from 58 for 14% (+16.75) Mark Loughnane: 7 wins from 37 for 19% (-1.50) Derek Shaw: 5 wins from 17 for 29% (+31.83) Richard Hannon: 5 wins from 18 for 28% (+3.08) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Wolverhampton for past 5 years David Evans: 68 wins from 615 for 11% (-78.20) Michael Appleby: 58 wins from 566 for 10% (-128.36) Mark Johnston: 55 wins from 415 for 13% (-115.18) Tom Dascombe: 53 wins from 324 for 16% (+107.08) David Loughnane: 52 wins from 404 for 13% (+53.49) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Wolverhampton for current year Rossa Ryan: 11 wins from 44 for 25% (+25.85) Adam Kirby: 8 wins from 28 for 29% (-4.58) Luke Morris: 8 wins from 55 for 15% (-9.33) Richard Kingscote: 8 wins from 59 for 14% (-24.91) Lewis Edmunds: 6 wins from 18 for 33% (+17.27) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Wolverhampton for past 5 years Luke Morris: 116 wins from 1012 for 11% (-272.41) Richard Kingscote: 91 wins from 616 for 15% (-166.63) Adam Kirby: 72 wins from 350 for 21% (-27.26) David Probert: 70 wins from 652 for 11% (-60.63) Jack Mitchell: 66 wins from 325 for 20% (+0.74)
|Wolverhampton AW show a healthy strike rate for winning favourites in non-handicaps at around 43% over the past 5 years. Best age category is currently those 4yo+ where they have won 81-183 for over 44%. Handicap winning favourites mirror the national average, but as you can imagine the older the favourites are in handicaps the worse they perform regarding strike rate and profit to level stakes.
We doubt many could name the top trainer at the course for the last 5 years (second for 2021 so far)? It is of course David Evans. A couple of absentee jockeys on the current year leader board is Hollie Doyle and Ben Curtis, we expect them to join the ranks shortly.
WE HAVE SOME WINNERS, see below...
An interesting angle tonight is trainers showing a profit when having just one winner at the track, they include: Simon Dow £131.03 (CAFE MILANO 5.00), Adrian Wintle £19.33 (PLASINA 5.00), John Gallagher £84.87 (FORZA DEL DESTINO 5.30), Tom Dascombe £51.62 (GET FUNKY 5.30), Roger Teal £42.83 (BRONZE RIVER 6.30), Simon Crisford £38.26 (ARIJ 6.30).
We welcome OISIN MURPHY back from his holidays (off since November 2020) and he might strip a little fitter tonight. He is not in groove just yet with 1 winner from 12 rides for just 8% including 4 second places and 3 third places. His national average is 18% but at Wolverhampton he scores 85-420 for 20%. He has 4 good rides tonight and looks certain to have at least 1 winner. Must be watched!
JAMES DOYLE has just come back also and currently 0-5 having been beaten on a 13/8 and 10/11 shot (both second). His national average is high at 21% and scores at 39% on favourites. He rides Garrus 7.00 who is the class act in the field and this looks a good opportunity on return from a lengthy lay-off of 575 days. If 85% fit he wins. Is the jockey booking significant I hear you say? He only has 2 rides so we suspect it is. On the AW surfaces Doyle has ridden 8-26 for 31% for trainer Charlie Hills. We all need a paddock look.
AL SHOUGHOR 5.30 looks interesting at 11/8 and was a beaten favourite last time out 272 days ago in a Class 5 Novice over 6f. The 160,000gns foal from the family of Profitable, must have been showing something at home given her strength in the market and she hinted at ability with the way she travelled to halfway. Off the bridle, however, she looked pretty clueless and was spared a hard time, so there could be more to come in time. This looks an uncompetitive maiden and she must be held in some regard especially at her cost. Get Funky looks the one for her to beat.
FUTURISTIC 6.00 at 7/4 looks hard to beat. Won by a head over course and distance in February (always holding on) and will remain competitive off this 3lb higher mark. The 5yo is relatively unexposed and won 3 from 8 with 2 seconds and 2 third and his low mileage can supplement his recent course and distance success. His trainer is 2-8 for 25% and the price of winners 12/1 and 2/1. At the course he shows big figures of 165-977 for 17% and a level stake profit of £47.22. The advice is to back and stake save with market danger.
LIVE RESULTS as it happens:
Race 1: Top course trainer David Evans (as per the RACECOURSE TEMPLATE) WINS the first race with Tundra at 11/1. Small stakes winner for us but we did back 3 in the field.
Today's Pacafi: click here
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