PACAFI (26 March 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

REGENT 2.15 Lingfield at 10/11

 Get Your Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boost Fillies' Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f


 12th foal; closely related to 4 winners inc Midas Touch (1m2f Group 2/Irish Derby and Leger second; RPR 120), half-sister to 3 winners inc Coronet (1m-1m4f inc at 2/Group 1; 117) and Streetcar To Stars (1m2f; 107); dam 7.4f-1m2f winner (inc Listed; 102)


Trainer Form: 3-12 for 25%          (10)
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)
RPR: 81                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 1m2f+                     (10)
Jockey: Rob Havlin                  (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9%               (9)*
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 21%         (10)  
Total:                              (99)

Main Danger: Invite

Thady to do more than assist!

Five-time champion John Gosden (70) is now the highest profile trainer in the UK to operate under a shared licence when his son Thady now his papers have been rubber-stamped by the BHA. Any figures we show on the site will be shown as a continuation and not separate. One imagines there are no concerns about getting the first score on the board, but it is only human nature they will want to get off the mark quickly.

Excellent run at Chelmsford and promises to step up again

We were particularly impressed with her win at Chelmsford over the mile last time out. She was almost slowest away but was rushed up on the inside rail to take a third position because of the steady early gallop. She pulled like a train for the first two furlongs and a bus for the next two so had every right to empty for the dash home. She conceded first run to the favourite, but ran on to pass the Godolphin favourite ridden by Ryan Moore to win. Furthermore, the way she stuck her head out was pleasing but worth noting she continued to run flat out long after the race and took a very long time to pull up! Amongst all this she was not only keen but green throughout also. The way she hit the line made it certain she will be suited to a step up in trip and her pedigree suggested that too.

Trainer form

John Gosden has a big national average of 24% and never appears to be out of form with his horses. This year he shows 17 winners from 59 runners for a big 29% and of those beaten 13 finished second. At Lingfield he is down on his NA but still scores at 21% with 177 winners from 854. Rob Havlin rides the Pacafi and his only ride of the day. He mirrors the strike rate when riding for Gosden and shows 538 -2594 for 21%. We accept over the years the jockey rides a lot of preparation type horses but still surprised to see his strike rate of just 9% at Lingfield, that said he has ridden 118 winners at the course. The 9% should be measured against his national average of 16%.

Rob Havlin AW Totals
Wolverhampton:  132 -  998 for 13% (-340.36)
Kempton:        128 - 1213 for 11% (-452.40)
Lingfield:      119 - 1325 for  9% (-584.99)
Southwell:       62 -  438 for 14%  (+94.37)
Chelmsford:      59 -  386 for 15% (-105.12)
Newcastle:       36 -  127 for 28%  (-20.93)

If the 21% combination is a good one then be reminded that the Frankie Dettori and John Gosden record 564 winners from 2193 rides for 26% and even shows a level stake profit of 8.04. Quite incredible figures! Check out Frankie's AW figures:

Frankie Dettori AW Totals
Lingfield:     184 - 624 for 29% (+123.88)
Kempton:        73 - 293 for 25%  (-48.42)
Wolverhampton:  52 - 205 for 25%  (-18.65)
Southwell:      49 - 233 for 21%  (-40.11)
Chelmsford:     17 -  66 for 26%  (-13.67)
Newcastle:       2 -   3 for 67%   (+4.53)


The two main contenders Invite and Folly Beach return from breaks of 148 and 153 days. Invite ran out the ready winner of a 7f novice auction event here in October when trained by Sylvester Kirk and the form of the race looked nothing special, interesting why she left and joined Marco Botti. Folly Beach was 22/1 for her debut at Newbury over a mile on soft and showed promise and is likely to step forward.


  REGENT took a step forward when winning at Chelmsford last time and she looks the type that will keep on progressing throughout spring for her top yard, so she's difficult to oppose. New Heights steps up in trip after winning at Kempton back in October and she will be a danger. Tropical Cyclone is an interesting newcomer and any market support would need to be taken seriously.


Our rationale will (hopefully) show our filly a shade of odds-on come post time. She is certain to step forward from her last start of that we are certain. We have taken a mixture of early prices including 10/11 (Bet365), 6/5 (William Hill) and 2.2 and 2.22 and even a tiny bit of 2.4 on the Exchange. 

Regent traded at a high of 7.80 and BSP of 2.70 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field


 Finally, and with apologies

We said on Wednesday 24th March: "This is the first time we have nominated/backed a Pacafi with a rating of just 84 from our Racing Horse Composite so we need to make a case for doing so." The Racing Horse Composite was designed to stop this from happening and we broke our own rule for the first time - the rest is history, it will not happen again! Sincere apologies to any member who trusted and acted on our information, it was below standard...

Lincoln Handicap

Tomorrow we look at the Lincoln Handicap racing trends with a microscope and ask if this fluff fed to us of any value?


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