PACAFI (28 March 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

BELLE METAL 5.30 Limerick at 4/6

 Kevin McManus Bookmaker Champion (Pro/Am) Flat Race (Listed) 2m


 Second foal; dam unraced half-sister to winners useful bumper/2m4f-3m1f hurdle/chase Themoonandsixpence, is granddaughter of bumper/2m1f hurdle winning sister to smart 2m4f-3m chase winner Buck Rogers


Trainer Form: 3-3 for 100%          (10)
National average: 27%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 28%             (10)
RPR: 123                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Soft to heavy       (10)
Distance: 2m                        (10)
Jockey: Patrick Mullins             (10)
National Average: 28%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 33%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 33%         (10)  
Total:                             (100)

Main Danger: Boothen Boy

Looked very good - Willie Mullins

Willie Mullins told us: "She looked very good at Naas when winning by 12 lengths first time out. The Kevin McManus Bookmaker Champion Flat Race looks a hot Listed bumper, but she won very well last time and the third has boosted the form with a win since. She’s owned by Kenny Alexander, Honeysuckle’s owner, who purchased her after the debut win.

After her win Willie told us: "Belle Metal looks a nice sort. Making all was not part of the plan by Jody must have realised there was going to be no pace and allowed her to make her own running, which paid off to great effect. We'll be looking to up her in grade."

Patrick Mullins rides at lowest weight

Belle Metal was visually impressive on debut of her bumper victory at Naas in January and was given a fine ride by Jody Townend in the heavy ground conditions. Patrick Mulins now gets down to his lowest riding weight (11st3lbs) in a year with a possible 2lbs over-weight notice flagged on a mare who has changed ownership since her Naas win, in a race where the third-placed horse won next time. This work looks serious.

Trainer form

Willie Mullins has his horses in tremendous form, in fact the last 3 have all won albeit at short prices and we know he had a decent Cheltenham. Comparing his form with his main rivals today we note Gordon Elliott's horses are now 1-24 with Denise Foster looking after them. Charles O'Brien who supplies the third favourite has a national average of just 7% and we cannot find a NHF winner for him, at least not in the last 5 years. His NH figures stand at 9-136. Mullins has a national average of 27% and at Limerick shows 157-562 for 28%. His partnership with Patrick is an incredible one and currently stands at 523-1590 for a massive 33%. The jockey rides the course at 33% also and we have never had so many boxes with big ticks!

Suffice it to say we will be bitterly disappointed if this filly does not win.


There are two contenders but the main danger looks to be Boothen Boy who shaped well when second of 19 in juvenile hurdle at 10/1 at Navan over 2m on soft ground on his NH debut 22 days ago. He makes his bumpers debut and open to improvement. Flat-bred Silas Marner is expected to run well


   It's hard to look beyond BELLE METAL, who looked one to follow when running out an impressive winner on her debut at Naas in January. Boothen Boy shaped encouragingly on his recent hurdling debut and can pose the main threat ahead of Silas Marner.


On this occasion we are not quite sure what constitutes perceived value but our Pacafi is every inch an odds-on shot though the 4/6 base price looks a shade tight but north of value. We have also nibbled at between 1.71 and 1.75 on the exchange. The trainer sends out 3 runners tomorrow and will be expecting a win treble and 6 successive winners, our Pacafi being the sixth?


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