Wolverhampton RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (29 March 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Wolverhampton RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Monday 29 March 2021 and some more pertinent numbers especially for the 6 handicaps. Tomorrow includes a 8-race card starting at 4.50pm first race. Last week we profited nicely from this betting landscape and we will try and do so again tomorrow.

Here was our template for WOLVERHAMPTON on Saturday 20 March 2021

Wolverhampton FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                       Handicap
2yo:    103-240 for 43% (-24.95)    35-101  for 35%   (+8.39)
3yo:    141-325 for 43% (-52.82)   197-602  for 33%  (-47.74)
4yo+:    82-184 for 45%  (-0.70)   342-1123 for 30%  (-82.55)
Total:  326-749 for 44% (-78.47)   574-1826 for 31% (-121.90)
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Wolverhampton for current year
Mark Johnston:   9 wins from 35 for 26%  (-2.95)
David Evans:     9 wins from 61 for 15% (+25.75)
Mark Loughnane:  7 wins from 39 for 18%  (-3.50)
John Butler:     6 wins from 31 for 19%  (-1.70)
Derek Shaw:      5 wins from 19 for 26% (+29.83)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Wolverhampton for past 5 years
David Evans:     69 wins from 618 for 11%  (-69.20)
Michael Appleby: 58 wins from 571 for 10% (-133.36)
Mark Johnston:   55 wins from 418 for 13% (-118.18)
Tom Dascombe:    53 wins from 325 for 16% (+106.08)
David Loughnane: 52 wins from 405 for 13%  (+52.49)

TOP 6 JOCKEYS at Wolverhampton for current year
Rossa Ryan:       11 wins from 46 for 24% (+23.85)
Richard Kingscote: 9 wins from 62 for 15% (-15.91)
Adam Kirby:        8 wins from 28 for 29%  (-4.58)
Luke Morris:       8 wins from 55 for 15%  (-9.33)
Hollie Doyle:      7 wins from 66 for 11% (-26.52)
Lewis Edmunds:     6 wins from 18 for 33% (+17.27)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Wolverhampton for past 5 years
Luke Morris:      116 wins from 1012 for 11% (-272.41)
Richard Kingscote: 92 wins from 619  for 15% (-157.63)
Adam Kirby:        72 wins from 350  for 21%  (-27.26)
David Probert:     72 wins from 663  for 11%  (-58.88)
Jack Mitchell:     70 wins from 333  for 21%   (+8.86)
Wolverhampton AW show a healthy strike rate for winning favourites in non-handicaps at around 44% over the past 5 years. Best age category is currently those 4yo+ where they have won 82-184 for over 45%. Handicap winning favourites mirror the national average, but as you can imagine the older the favourites are in handicaps the worse they perform regarding strike rate and profit to level stakes.

    • Leading trainer David Evans has entered 3 for Monday but we cannot see one of them running a place yet alone win!
    • Mark Johnston has 5 runners, 4 of which will be ridden by Ben Curtis and have winning chances.
    • Hollie Doyle has 4 rides and looks almost certain to ride a winner probably with EXCEL POWER 7.20
    • Rising star Benoit De La Sayette has just one ride at the course in the 4.50 Apprentices Handicap in MOLLY MAI at 9/2
    • Rossa Ryan is top jockey this year and 36% strike rate on favourites and rides FLYIN' SOLO 5.50 at 7/2
    • Godolphin are the top owners over the past 5 years with 60-200 for 30% (-34.47). They have no runners today but 2 tomorrow!
  • P McBride 42 (only 1 winner since July 2020, so now just 1-68 and his next runner is Molly Mai to be ridden by Benoit?)
  • Roger Teal £65.83 profit when one runner at a meeting and £36.50 after a break (MUSTANG KODI)
  • Marco Botti £54.35profit with horses running after a break (TRICOLORE & APRES DARK)
  • Alan King £41.25 profit with horses running after a break (LETMELIVEMYLIFE & OCEANLINE)
  • Mark Johnston £18.96 profit with horses stepped up in trip (CUBAN DANCER)
  • S Lycett 31
  • I Furtado 31 (March 0-29 and runs ex-Pacafi Hector's Here)
  • M Appleby 23
  • R Guest 21
  • Sean Davis 43
  • Georgia Dobie 28
  • Eoin Walsh 19
  • Ben Curtis 16 (6 rides today)
  • Elisha Whittington 15

John & Thady Gosden do not have any runners but they run just one on Tuesday in Marshall Plan. The 3yo Godolphin owned Golden Horn colt is out of a Listed-placed 1m winner, and whilst he never looked like landing a serious blow on his sole start, he showed clear promise. He is certain to improve and the suggestion is to be ready when the markets open. The team are 4-11 for 36% (+2.91) for this season.

We doubt many could name the top trainer at the course for the last 5 years (joint-top for 2021 so far)? It is of course David Evans. Hollie has now come onto the leader board and it will only be a matter of time before she heads it. We expect Ben Curtis to join the ranks shortly, both have good rides today. Curtis is currently 0-16 and doubtful he will be 0-22 by the end of this evening.

There are two divisions to a Maiden race and the suggestion is they will go to a bigger stable and the market and paddock will tell us more.

As things stand our best bet looks to be CUBAN DANCER 7.20 generally available at 7/2 each way (9 runners) against a hot favourite in Excel Power. A price of 4/1 or 9/2 should become available and from stall 2 on this track he must finish in the first three with Ben Curtis riding.

Mark Johnston's charge should have won on debut at this course so we knows he acts on it. For some reason the trainer sent him to race on soft ground next time up and he did not like it, to compound matters he then thought it a good idea to run on the fibresand at Southwell with an apprentice riding and face the kickback! He has since been gelded and there is every reason to suggest he will be the one to beat tonight, though we are not 100% sure about being stepped up in trip at this stage. We considered the reverse forecast with Excel Power...


Today's Pacafi: click here

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