PACAFI (31 March 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

AU CLAIR DE LUNE 8.15 Kempton at 5/2

 Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Fillies' Handicap (Class 4) 1m2f219y


 72,000gns F; second foal; sister to 1m4f and 1m6f (Group 3) winner Eagles By Day (RPR 113); dam bumper/smart 2m-2m4f hurdle/1m2f-1m6f Flat winner (inc Group 3/Gold Cup second; 115), out of 7f-1m4f winning half-sister to 1m Group 3 winner Hoyer


Trainer Form: 3-11 for 27%          (10)
National average: 11%                (9)
Course Strike Rate: 8%               (9)
OR: 81                              (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard/Good       (10)
Distance: 1m3f                      (10)
Jockey: Benoit De La Sayette        (10)
National Average: 27%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 50%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: First ride  (10)  
Total:                              (98)

Main Danger: No Nay Bella

Shaped well on debut

Au Clair De Lune showed plenty of ability last year and we like the form of her races in readiness for this one. The 4yo filly has only raced 4 times so very much unexposed and we can find real interest in all four runs. She made her debut at Kempton and not fancied at 80/1 but shaped really well in a race not run to suit.

Won good race at Doncaster next time up

Next up she put the experience to good use to win in ready style at Doncaster, helped by the favourite's disappointing effort but still readily accounting for another expensive sort having taking it up around 2f out. She had an easy way of going about things (travelled strongly) and her terrific middle-distance pedigree pointed to ongoing improvement, so very much one to be positive about.

Good form at Leicester

Her third run at Leicester against the boys was another good run on good to soft ground and was only just beaten a half length by a good sort in A Star Above and those two were nicely clear of the rest. The winner of the race finished second in a Class 2 Handicap at Goodwood next time out confirming the strength of the form. She was put up 6lbs and ran in a Class 3 at Goodwood herself and backed to run well at 4/1 but failed to show her true form.

Jockey & Trainer

Tomorrow she runs in a Class 4 Handicap with a lovely draw and will be ridden by a special youngster Benoit De La Fayette who has a 6-12 for 50% strike rate at the course. Her trainer has hit great form and the last 14 days show 3-11 for 27% which is 16% above his national average. Those winners were priced 10/1, 9/1 and 11/1. All three were ridden by Callum Shepherd. A slight negative comes in the form of the trainer's course figures which show just 5-63 for 8% which is 3% below his national average.


The David Evans-trained Tundra won going away over the extended 1m1f at Wolverhampton 11 days ago and shaped as though stepping back up in trip would suit, a 4lbs rise will make difficult for her so it is No Nay Bella who looks the main danger. She is a course and distance winner and a creditable third of 7 in another course and distance handicap 8 weeks ago on her final start for Marco Botti. First start for Tom Ward.


   AU CLAIR DE LUNE looks to have plenty in her favour as an unexposed sort from a yard among the winners and the icing on the cake is that Benoit de la Sayette takes 7 lb off. Atlanta Breeze's very good record when fresh makes her a must for the shortlist, while sole 3-y-o Ghumama merits plenty of respect given who trains here.


We cannot know for sure how fit and ready she is for tomorrow night but the jockey booking is particularly significant as is the form of her trainer. Her form is the best in the field and she has stall one to help her jockey find the favoured rail. The 5/2 secured must surely represent value and an excellent opportunity for the in-form trainer.

After a messy month we hope to finish with a nice winner and give us the monthly plus figure we deserve!


14 Au Clair De Lune (S)3.50  WIN  1.25  +2.25  +7.08  S/R  71%
13 Belle Metal         1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +4.83  S/R  69%
12 Regent              2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.16  S/R  67%
11 Wise Glory (S)      4.00  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +2.79  S/R  64%
10 Messire Des Obeaux  1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +4.04  S/R  70%
 9 Faustinovick        2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +5.04  S/R  78%
 8 Envoi Allen         1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +6.04  S/R  88%
 7 Moraaheq            2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +7.04  S/R 100%
 6 Sea The Shells      1.57  WIN  1.00  +0.57  +5.94  S/R 100%
 5 Dancing King        2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  +5.37  S/R 100%
 4 Breath Of Sun       2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.37  S/R 100%
 3 Fantastic Lady      2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +3.00  S/R 100%
 2 Highland Avenue     2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +1.90  S/R 100%
 1 Wheres Maud Gone    1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +0.80  S/R 100%

MARCH: 14  WIN: 10  LOSE: 4  S/R 71%  PROFIT: +7.08

(1111111F2P5111)   FINISHED First or Second (78.57%)

BET 5: Dancing King was available at 2/1 and more and then with an SP of 11/8 but recorded at evens. The above prices are advised prices given the day before racing, so neither best prices nor exchange prices, our personal profit for the month is 7.11pts.

BET 7: Once again far better prices than 11/10 were available for Moraaheq but we have only recorded the 11/10.

Bet 8: Only Jack Kennedy will know why he did not ride Envoi Allen as the best horse in the race.

Bet 11: Respiratory issue again but a poor piece of betting advice. Sincere apologies to members who followed the advice (see composite), this will not happen again as a Pacafi!


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