The Racing Horse offers our Chelmsford RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Thursday 1 April 2021 and some more pertinent numbers.
Chelmsford FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo: 87-200 for 44% (-11.69) 34-75 for 45% (+24.03) 3yo: 103-210 for 49% (-20.04) 144-431 for 33% (-46.05) 4yo+: 41-97 for 42% (-3.34) 259-757 for 34% (-19.06) Total: 231-507 for 46% (-35.07) 437-1263 for 35% (-41.08) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford for current year Stuart Williams: 6 wins from 27 for 22% (-7.39) Roger Varian: 4 wins from 5 for 80% (+2.60) Mark Johnston: 4 wins from 10 for 40% (+10.72) Michael Appleby: 4 wins from 41 for 10% (-26.83) Andrew Balding: 3 wins from 7 for 43% (+5.12) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford for past 5 years Mark Johnston: 64 wins from 403 for 16% (-45.07) Michael Appleby: 60 wins from 524 for 11% (-138.91) John Gosden: 59 wins from 239 for 25% (-42.17) Stuart Williams: 47 wins from 335 for 14% (-101.52) David Simcock: 46 wins from 259 for 18% (-19.90) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford for current year Rossa Ryan: 7 wins from 22 for 32% (+25.25) Callum Shepherd: 5 wins from 20 for 25% (+7.32) David Probert: 4 wins from 22 for 18% (-5.04) Franny Norton: 3 wins from 9 for 33% (+14.72) Richard Kingscote: 3 wins from 14 for 21% (+48.50) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford for past 5 years Luke Morris: 68 wins from 701 for 10% (-297.14) Oisin Murphy: 60 wins from 277 for 22% (-28.92) Adam Kirby: 55 wins from 302 for 18% (-53.71) Jim Crowley: 45 wins from 185 for 24% (-13.13) Rob Havlin: 43 wins from 274 for 16% (-69.28)
|Chelmsford AW show a healthy strike rate for winning favourites across the categories. Best category is 3yos in non-handicaps who win almost one in two races, recently it has been up to 50% but just slipped back a point to 49%. Knowing that 46% of favourites in non-handicaps win, and that the figures are robust and not likely to suffer fatigue going forward, represents an edge and one we exploit successfully. There are 7 races tomorrow but 6 of them are handicaps. We will look at the 5.50 in some detail and attempt to find the 1-2-3, but first some general numbers.
5.5O Chelmsford: Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes (The Road To The Kentucky Derby) (Class 2) (3yo) 1m
This looks a most intriguing race and we will post a few numbers/figures and see where it takes us. Before we look at a horse the Racecourse Template reminds us it is a great place for winning favourites (see above). There are 7 runners in the race and with the exception of Brian Meehan are contested by our very best trainers in the UK.
DECISIVE EDGE (Brian Meehan) drops from a Group 1 to a Class 2 and this would normally carry significance, but for form of the trainer. He has NA of 10% and 1 winner for 2021. Attempt to lead from Quintillus and play into hands of the others.
QAADEER (Mark Johnston) is another class dropper going from a Group 3 to this Class 2 and despite being 2nd in the Group 2 Coventry and 3rd in the Group 3 Tattersalls is not open to the same improvement of his rivals. Sets form standard with OR of 98 but easily overlooked in the context against unexposed types.
OO DE LALLY (Andrew Balding) Trainer won this race last year but his charge looks 7f runner, will fade late on after running well. Others have much better claims.
MORAAHEQ (Roger Varian) Progressive colt and a course and distance winner, needs personal best but in the mix. Jack Mitchell loses the ride and a mistake.
DUTY OF CARE (Michael Stoute) Half-brother to yard's top-class miler Expert Eye, built on promising debut when kept finding over mile at Newcastle. Beautifully bred, looks type to keep improving with racing, should make nice 3yo. Will be last early and from stall 7 will have to pass the lot to win, has Kingscote in the saddle to help.
QUINTILLUS (Charlie Appleby) Has early and stall 1 will help this sturdy colt. Will stay and will go on improving. James Doyle is 0-13 and beaten on 6 first or second favourites in the last few days. Appleby's horses could be running better and unusually for him just 14% at present against NA of 28%.
FUNDAMENTAL (John Gosden) This last time course winner is currently around 50/1 for the 2,000 Guineas, holds leading claims on comeback. Gosden is 25% at course and Rob Havlin has stall 2 to track Quintillus. Galloped strongly to win by big margin and wants a mile, looks more than useful.
Fundamental won well here back in October and the Guineas entry should have more to come up in trip. Quintillus is another likely improver after winning last autumn and should be a serious threat. Duty of Care would be dangerous to rule out too.
The Racing Horse Verdict
1 FUNDAMENTAL 6/4 2 MORAAHEQ 7/1 3 DUTY OF CARE 13/2
Nobody can fault the layout of Chelmsford, because it’s superb, absolutely immaculate, with lovely turns and a good long straight. You’d struggle to find a horse that can’t handle the sweep of the bends and you can ride into them as hard as you can anywhere. Lots of people have noticed there’s been a pace bias, making it hard to come from behind, and that the kickback was severe. That should change now they’re working on resurfacing and, potentially, it’s as good an all-weather venue as you’ll find - Jason Weaver
Today's Pacafi: click here
Despite being one of the UK’s newest tracks, Chelmsford City racecourse has already had an eventful history. Originally known as Great Leighs when it opened in April 2008 it was the first entirely new racecourse in the UK since Taunton opened in 1927. It has a Polytrack surface and is essentially galloping in nature, having broad, sweeping turns. It is a left-handed track of just over a mile in circumference, with seven-furlong and one-mile races starting on different spurs.
Since re-opening, prominent tactics have proven an advantage, all the more so in fact over sprint trips. It’s a very popular course with trainers as they see it as being very fair to their horses, some very useful horses make their debut here. It is a lot more of a galloping track than Lingfield, Kempton and Wolverhampton with big sweeping bends and it’s generally a very fair place where there isn’t many hard luck stories.