GOLDEN FLAME 4.10 Bath at 5/4

 CB Protection Event Specialists Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (3yo) 1m3f137y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-11 for 27%          (10)
National average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%             (10)
OR & RPR: 85 & 96                   (10)
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Distance: 1m3f+                     (10)
Jockey: Adam Kirby                  (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 19%         (10)  
Total:                             (100)

Main Danger: Wantage

Top rated and hard to beat with optimum conditions

Golden Flame represents a stable who have started the new season brightly and should be all the wiser for his comeback spin on the all-weather last month. Mark Johnston's charge had a busy juvenile campaign and is more exposed than his three rivals, though he should take plenty of beating if running to his mark in this company.

Very nice horse - Mark Johnston

We need to look at the type of races he has been running in to take care of the word exposed. After the 2yo colt got beat on debut at Haydock Johnston told us: "He will definitely run in the Chesham. He finished second at Haydock first time out and for all we were frustrated to get beat I thought he ran a lovely race and confirmed what he had been showing at home. He is a very nice horse and unfortunately the Chesham is no longer confined to staying type horses. You can get in now with more speedily bred horses and now the sire or the dam have had to have won over a mile and a quarter. He is by Golden Horn which is a real middle-distance pedigree and there may be some sharper types." Tomorrow he runs in a Class 5 Maiden at Bath for £3,024.

The sturdy colt's second run was at Ascot in the Chesham which is a Listed event and was sent off at 5/1 against an Aidan O'Brien 11/4 favourite with all the top stables represented (finished 5th without running badly). His third race was a Class 2 Maiden at Goodwood as the 2/1 favourite. A photo-finish defeat at Salisbury followed, once again as the 11/4 joint-favourite before racing in a Class 2 Conditions race at Nottingham at 2/1. So in the context of tomorrow's race he has raced in much higher class and just failing.

Ran well on reappearance against a good one

He should have broken his duck by now and on his reappearance this season he was asked to beat Marshall Plan and backed to do so (7/4) at Wolverhampton but couldn't quite cope, there is nothing of his ability in this race and with Adam Kirby in the saddle we expect the colt to finally get off the mark!

Trainer form

Mark Johnston has his horses in good form and 3 of his last 11 runners have won for 27%. April shows 6-23 for 26% (+12.65). This is against a national average of 16%. At Bath he does well also recording 59-262 for 23% and a level stake profit of +2.91. When Adam Kirby combines the good news continue with 35-186 for 19% and at the course the jockey shows 42-260 for 16% (+0.84) so all our boxes are ticked.

Contenders

Going Gone and Wantage are entitled to come on for their debut spins, though Everett (£170,000 Kendargent gelding) is sporting blinkers on debut and is best watched for now. The Camelot colt Wantage looks the main danger. He made an encouraging start to career when third of 8 in minor event at Lingfield over 1m2f on the AW 74 days ago, green under pressure and needing stiffer test so open to improvement.

Timeform

  GOING GONE made appeal on paper and shaped with plenty of promise when third in a Goodwood novice on debut back in October. Subsequently gelded, he's the type to progress this year and could be worth chancing to come out on top. Golden Flame holds a big experience edge over his rivals and should be firmly in the mix, as should Wantage, who is a likely improver.

Value

The 5/4 secured looks a decent price and north of value, we imagine this one to start a shade of odds-on.

Pacafi Results (January to April 2021)