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PACAFI (13 May 2021)
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EAVESDROPPING 8.10 Fontwell at 8/13
PedigreeThird foal; dam unraced half-sister to winners Princely Player (useful 2m2f-2m7f hurdle/chase), King's Temptation (2m7f-3m2f chase) and Tara View (bumper/2m-2m5f hurdle) out of 1m4f winning half-sister to 2m2f-2m3f Listed jump winner Change Partner |
COMPOSITE RATINGS
Trainer Form: 4-11 for 36% (10) National average: 17% (10) Course Strike Rate: 24% (10) RPR: 128 (10) Optimum Ground: Good (10) Distance: 2m+ (10) Jockey: Fergus Gregory (9) National Average: 12% (10) Course Strike Rate: 4% (7)? Trainer & Jockey Combo: 17% (10) Total: (96) Main Danger: The Trampolinist Alt: Newtonian
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In recent months we have been impressed with Fergus Gregory but his 4% strike rate at Fontwell is alarming for a Pacafi, but we have decided to set those figures aside. He has a combination score of 41 winners from 244 rides for 17% with trainer Olly Murphy. This is an excellent return and we know he excels in NHF races where his record shows 11-53 for a big 21%. When Gregory rides for Murphy in NHF races they combine with 10-36 for 28%. This is the first time we have backed a jockey with a 4% strike rate at a particular racecourse, but on this occasion the number is not representative of his ability and looks a freak number that will surely rise over the coming months. We doubt it will happen but will not cry foul if he gives us a substandard ride, though tactics are key with just 4 runners. One imagines they ride the mare quietly just behind early before staying on to win. This is the jockeys only ride at Fontwell and Olly Murphy's only runner at the course though he does send a team of 6 to Perth. |
Expected to improve massively from debut second
Eavesdropping is a Kayf Tara mare so from a very successful jumps family and she comes from a stable that has a great record in this sphere. On debut at Southwell she knew her job though not backed to win at around 8/1, but it was a very good run (finished second) against a lot of well bred mares. Given that it was her first run on a racecourse she is entitled to come on massively for the run. Unlike most bumpers the 13-runner race was ran in a very good time so the form looks worthy.
Trainer form
Olly Murphy already has a decent national average showing one of 17% but he is doubling that strike rate currently with 4 of his last 11 runners winning for 36%. We have talked about his successful relationship with Gregory and at Fontwell the trainer shows 12-49 for 24% (-2.92). His bumper horses at the course show 2-5 for 40%.
Contenders
Our next best is the stoutly-bred mare The Trampolinist who displayed a nice turn of foot to land 6-runner bumper at Uttoxeter on debut. She ran well when finishing runner-up on both starts since. Trainer Suzi Best has a 27% strike-rate at Fontwell and sends her charge to the venue which is her only runner of the day. This promising 6yo mare will be staying on all the way to the line and is the most experienced runner in this field, but the form of her runs looks short of the Pacafi. She is rated 114 against 128 of our bet and has to give 7lbs to our nomination.
Third choice (alternative) is the £12,000 3yo Telescope gelding Newtonian. He is a half-brother to fair hurdler Henry Gondoff with his dam lightly raced in bumpers/over hurdles.
Timeform
This looks a good opportunity for EAVESDROPPING to get her head in front having shown plenty of ability when runner-up on debut at Southwell last month. The Trampolinist heads the dangers provided she's fully tuned up on return from 5 months off, ahead of recent point-winner Time Please.
Value
The 8/13 looks north of perceived value given our rationale. The trainer has decided to run his mare at Fontwell against both sexes instead of racing her on Saturday at Bangor against her own sex...
Ground conditions
We are not sure what the going conditions will be by 8.10pm. We know rain/showers are forecast through the morning with thundery outbreaks possible this afternoon, locally heavy. The ground is currently good to firm but we expect it to change.
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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021
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