Windsor RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (7 June 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful Racecourse Template for Windsor for Monday 7 June 2021. The going is expected to be good.

  WINNING FAVOURITES in non-handicaps do particularly well on this idiosyncratic course, with 2yofavourites in non-handicaps faring best at 47% and a level stake profit. Winning favourites in 4yo+ handicaps show a strike rate below the national average and a heavy loss to level stakes. Incredibly, over the last 12 months at 'Winning Windsor Favourites' show 105-168 for 62.5%. One could easily argue a big downturn is imminent, but when?

MATHEMATICS are the GOVERNING FORCE of SUCCESSFUL HORSE RACING BETTING. 
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning, and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
WINDSOR FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                       Handicap
2yo:     57-120 for 48%  (+9.11)   6-14   for 43%  (+5.66)
3yo:     51-116 for 44%  (-9.45)   75-223 for 34%  (-2.68)
4yo+:    10-24  for 42%  (-2.64)   66-232 for 28% (-34.96)
Total:  118-260 for 45%  (-2.98)  147-469 for 31% (-31.98)

Top trainer for last 5 years
Richard Hannon: 52 wins from 297 for 18% (-33.56)
Andrew Balding: 25 wins from 131 for 19%  (-8.11)
Clive Cox:      25 wins from 153 for 16% (-13.65)
Mick Channon:   21 wins from 134 for 16%  (-9.95)
William Haggas: 19 wins from  67 for 28% (-12.82)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Windsor last 5 years
Oisin Murphy:       56 wins from 307 for 18% (-57.70)
Tom Marquand:       39 wins from 265 for 15% (+51.61)
James Doyle:        32 wins from 138 for 23%  (-1.05)
Silvestre De Sousa: 29 wins from 102 for 28% (+36.94)
Adam Kirby:         29 wins from 177 for 16% (-31.61)

Standout figures

Standout figures come from William Haggas and Silvestre De Sousa with strike rates of 28%. The trainer sends just one to the course tomorrow and we are duty bound to include that one in our thought process, the jockey does not have a ride anywhere tomorrow.

Silvestre De Sousa has now ridden 299 winners from 1562 rides for a 19% strike rate (-43.33) winning £4,793,961 in prize money for trainer Mark Johnston. AND, he has ridden 99 winners from 454 rides for a 22% strike rate (-38.76) winning £2,568,978 for trainer Saeed bin Suroor. Suffice it to say we will have a betting stake on numbers 300 and 100, and will email alert members when he has a confirmed jockey booking for either!

John Gosden, Saeed bin Suroor, Simon Crisford, Ralph Beckett, David Simcock and Roger Varian have runners in the 7.30 Novice race - looks a hot race.

PERTINENCE

  • William Haggas sends only SEA SYLPH 7.30. Only beaten a head on debut at Doncaster at 7/2 over 1m on soft ground. Ran green, going to be straighter tomorrow, to be ridden by Tom Marquand. Top trainers are involved in this race. William Haggas 10-41 for 24% (last 14 days)
  • Roger Varian 10-40 for 25% (last 14 days)
  • Godolphin are top winning owners showing 14-71 for 20% (-27.71)). King Power are 12-44 for 27% (+5.57), Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum 10-23 for 43% (+38.22), Cheveley Park Stud 8-34 for 24% (+12.18) and The Queen 7-27 for 26% (-1.27)
  • Tom Dascombe is the longest traveller (167m) and sends just one to the course (RUSSELLINTHEBUSHES 6.00)
  • Hollie Doyle goes to Leicester tomorrow, whilst Oisin Murphy has no booked rides until Kempton on Wednesday. Tom Marquand (12-58 for 21% last 14 days) and Pat Dobbs (1-28 for 4% last 14 days) are the top two jockeys riding at Windsor tomorrow and the former looks the one to follow!
  • CLASHANISKA 8.00 moved from A Carroll to A West
  • JAFFATHEGAFFA 8.30 A West to G L Moore
  • KINZ 8.30 drops from Class 4 to Class 6
  • Beaten favourites last time out include: Turna 6.00, Centurian Song 6.30, Appreciate 7.30, Clashaniska 8.00 & Lethal Blast 8.00
  • Heather Main profit to £1 when one runner at meeting is £22.23 (MISTER BLUEBIRD 5.30)
  • Tom Dascombe profit to £1 when one runner at meeting is £51.74 (RUSSELLINTHEBUSHES 6.00)
  • Amy Murphy profit to £1 with horses running after break is £43.25 (THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 6.30)
  • Brian Meehan profit to £1 with horses running after break is £71.72 (CENTURION SONG 6.30)
  • George Baker profit to £1 with horses in first time headgear is £23.00 (CEMHAAN 7.00)
  • S & E Crisford profit to £1 when one runner at meeting is £16.05 plus 54 of NEW APPROACH (IRE)'s progeny have on on flat debut (PATINA 7.30) 7.30)
  • Gary Moore profit to £1 when one runner at meeting is £36.09 (JAFFATHEGAFFA 8.30)

Cold List Trainers & Jockeys

E Stanford 83
L Dace 71
M Pattinson 49
P Evans 24
Amy Murphy 0-29 (82 days, last flat winner in March)
George Scott 0-25 (33 days)
Adam West 0-35 (Flat - 55 days)
William Carson 0-63 (55 days)
Pat Dobbs 27
Shane W Kelly 25

5.30: MISTER BLUEBIRD 9/2 (2nd)
6.00: RUSSELLINTHEBUSHES 3/1 (2nd)
6.30: BENEFIT STREET 5/1 (6th)
7.00: GOLDIE HAWK 9/4 WINNER
7.30: SEA SYLPH 11/10 WINNER
8.00: LETHAL BLAST 15/8 (3rd)
8.30: DEVIL'S CUB 4/1 WINNER

Last week we found 5 out of 8 WINNERS with our nominations, that is unlikely to happen again tomorrow, but we do hope to advise a winner or two via our pertinence!

UPDATE Monday 22.02: This week 3 MORE WINNERS for a PROFIT but lots of pertinent information within the Racecourse Template. Bath, Chepstow and Windsor will now become a regular feature for members over and above what we are already producing...

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Jason Weaver talks about Windsor

Windsor’s bottom turn has been christened ‘carnage corner’ and you can get into all sorts of trouble if the one in front slows down there, causing a concertina effect. It’s a sharp right-hander and if you employ different tactics, kicking-on on a front-runner there, you can really get those behind you at it, especially anybody caught wide. You need a balanced horses at Windsor, even though the course is flat, and a ballsy ride can pay dividends, because a path can often open up late-on on the stands’ rail.

FIXTURES
Monday 31 May 2021
Monday 7 June 2021
Monday 14 June 2021
Monday 21 June 2021
Saturday 26 June 2021

The Racing Horse will be updating and preparing our Windsor Racecourse Template for at least the next 5 fixtures, if this is of genuine interest to our members we might make this a permanent feature...

Every trainer has a career-to-date strike rate, this is called NATIONAL AVERAGE, be aware of this figure before placing a wager. For example, Eugene Standform is 0-82 (1,823 days) or 0-64 over the past 5 years for 0% national average strike rate, he competes against Clive Cox in the 6.00 race, who shows 268-1945 for a 14% national average over the past 5 years.
William Haggas 23%, J & T Gosden 21%, Saeed bin Suroor 21%, Roger Varian 20% and  S & E Crisford 19% have the best national averages at Windsor tomorrow.

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Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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