KING’S STAND STAKES (Group 1) 5f

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

 Last year’s winner Battaash leads the way in Tuesday’s King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot after all 16 horses stood their ground at the 48-hour final declaration stage. The 7yo will be making a belated seasonal debut after suffering an injury during the winter, but he has been successful first time out in all five previous campaigns.

Royal Ascot RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Home Page)

He will be a warm order to repeat the dose but is expected to face strong opposition from younger sprinters headed by Tim Easterby’s 3yo Winter Power. The early pace for this race will be frantic/massive so a need to hit the line hard essential, the one who makes the last challenge wins! 

KING'S STAND STAKES (Group 1) 5f

19/19: Aged 7yo or younger (100%)
13/13: At least 4 previous flat wins (100%)
12/12: Rated 111 or higher (100%)
12/13: At least 1 run that season (%)
11/12: At least 12 previous flat runs (92%)
17/19: Won Group race before (89%)
11/12: At least 1 win in Group 1-3 (92%)
16/19: Aged 4yo or older (84%)
16/19: Won over 5f before (84%)
..9/12: Winners drawn between 1-11 (75%)
..8/12: First or second last time out (67%)

Understanding what an OVERROUND is, and the importance of betting with best price guaranteed bookmakers (if possible), should not need explaining.
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had no headgear, although one wore a tongue tie. The other two winners wore cheek pieces  
  • Just one filly has won this race in the last 12 years. 6 geldings have won and 5 entires (2 colts and 3 horses)
  • Just 1 winning favourite in the last 11 years
  • Oisin Murphy (KING'S LYNN 20/1) & Frankie Dettori (EXTRAVAGANT KID 8/1)
  • Jockey since a win: Rowan Scott 17 (UBETTABELIEVEIT)

WINNERS (last 18 years)

2020: Battaash (5/6f)
2019: Blue Point (5/2)
2018: Blue Point (6/1)
2017: Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016: Profitable (4/1)
2015: Goldream (20/1)
2014: Sole Power (5/1)
2013: Sole Power (8/1)
2012: Little Bridge (12/1)
2011: Prohibit (7/1)
2010: Equiano (9/2)
2009: Scenic Blast (11/4f)
2008: Equiano (22/1)
2007: Miss Andretti (3/1f)
2006: Takeover Target (7/1)
2005: Chineur (7/1)
2004: The Tatling (8/1)
2003: Choisir (25/1)

The top 5 racing trends suggest a recurrence factor of 67-69 for a 97.10% strike rate.

Despite Battaash (injured during winter) being the only course and distance winner in the field we think the strong pace will suit Oxted perfectly and just shades our vote in the race. He made a very smart performance to win the July Cup at Newmarket last summer but he hasn't reproduced that since, his 8/1 looks a very good each way to nothing chance. It will be fascinating to see what Winter Power comes up with on this much stiffer track than when so impressive at York.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: OXTED 8/1 WINNER  2: Battaash 9/4 4th  3: Winter Power 7/1 9th

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