The £250,000 contest is one of three successive Group 1 races. Aidan O'Brien has four entered at this stage but we cannot see him winning this race this year! 

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Classic hero Poetic Flare and the unbeaten Mostahdaf are among 13 colts declared for the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Aidan O’Brien now runs Battleground, Ontario and Wembley, with son Joseph represented by Thunder Moon.

4.20 St. James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) 1m

19/19: Returned 10/1 or shorter (100%)
12/12: At least 3 previous flat runs (100%)
11/12: At least 1 win that season (92%)
11/12: Rated 109 or higher (92%)
11/12: At least 2 previous flat wins (92%)
11/12: At least 1 previous run over 8 furlongs (92%)
11/12: At least 1 previous win over 8 furlongs (92%)
16/19: Raced 2 or 3 times that season (84%)
16/19: Placed favourites (84%)
16/19: Won over a mile (84%)
10/12: Ran within last 26 days (83%)
..9/12: Rated 115 or higher (75%)
14/19: Previous Group 1 or 2 winners (74%)
11/19: Winning favourites (1 joint) (58%)
11/19: Won previous race (58%).
..6/19: Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (32%)

• 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps at Ascot over the past 5 years show: 27-70 for 39% (-3.37)
• Great Britain has produced 11 winners and 19 placings from 106 runners
• Ireland has produced 9 winners and 12 placings from 60 runners
• Aidan O'Brien has sent 48 runners to the race with 8 winners and 19 placings.
• Michael Stoute (0-6) and William Haggas (0-5) over the past 20 years 
• The last 13 winners returned shorter than 9/1
• 6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
• Frankie Dettori rides THUNDER MOON at 10/1
• Trainer since a win: Mrs John Harrington 20 (LUCKY VEGA)
• Jockey since a win: Shane Foley 19 (LUCKY VEGA)

RECENT WINNERS (19 years)

2020: Palace Pier (4/1)
2019: Circus Maximus (10/1)
2018: Without Parole (9/4f)
2017: Barney Roy (5/2)
2016: Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015: Gleneagles (8/15f)
2014: Kingman (8/11f)
2013: Dawn Approach (5/4f)
2012: Most Improved (9/1)
2011: Frankel (3/10f)
2010: Canford Cliffs (11/4jf)
2009: Mastercraftsman (5/6f)
2008: Henrythenavigator (4/7f)
2007: Excellent Art (8/1)
2006: Araafa (2/1f)
2005: Shamardal (7/4f)
2004: Azamour (9/2)
2003: Zafeen (8/1)
2002: Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5f)

The top 7 trends show a recurrence factor of 86-91 for a 94.51% strike rate. Battleground won the Chesham (at this meeting) and Vintage Stakes last summer, then went off favourite for the Guineas at Newmarket on return but didn't look at home on track. Well worth another chance. Tongue tied. He arrives here fresher than most having not had a hard race in the 2000 Guineas, but the weight of support for him that day was telling, and this strong, lengthy colt is worth another chance at this more suitable track. Poetic Flare has the best form but over raced since win in the 2000 Guineas. THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:   1: BATTLEGROUND 11/1 3rd  2: Mostahdaf 10/1 12t  3: Poetic Flare 7/2 WINNER