PETER THE GREAT 8.05 Newmarket at 8/13

   Daylin Flavell Floral Design EBF Novice Stakes (Class 4) 1m2f (July)

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 9-54 for 17%          (10)*
National average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)
RPR: 102                            (10)                            
Optimum Ground: Good to firm        (10)
Distance: 1m2f                      (10)
Jockey: Nicky McKay                 (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 12%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 19%         (10) 
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Shirbo

 Sets a very high standard for the newcomers

Peter The Great sets a high standard on his win and placed efforts on the Rowley course here and at Newcastle respectively and he is hard to oppose. His OR and RPR shows 92 and 103 respectively, so for a newcomer to beat the Pacafi they would have to be something special. Apart from the above he is a course winner (Wood Ditton) and the way he handled and sped through the dip was eye-catching. He had an injury which prevented him running as a 2yo but the trainer told us he was boisterous at home so gave the ride to McKay who rode him in his work. The trainer intends to take him slowly but did mention after his debut win the King Edward so there appears a lot more to come!

PETER THE GREAT WINS the WOOD DITTON

Trainer form

John Gosden had scored 199 winners at Newmarket on the July course from 1059 runners at 19% showing a level stake profit of +14.94, winning £3,307,943 in prize money. It is our belief Peter The Great will be his 200th winner at the course. The last 14 days are showing 17% against a national average of 20% but that is not reflecting the of Team Gosden. Nicky McKay keeps the ride on the Pacafi and shows 148 from 785 for 19% when combining with the trainer and 26-215 for 12% (+77.50) when riding on the July Course.

Gosden also runs Shirbo in the race which is a little irritating and we do not want to see that one shortening below 6/1. We fully expect to see each way money against the favourite to come because that one could be the best of the rest!

Contenders

Sabre Jet (RPR 77) is the only other runner with experience so 26lbs below Peter The Great's standard, so it will likely be one or two of the newcomers that ask most questions. Mahrajaan is a smartly-bred gelding and may show up well, while it will be interesting to see how Shirbo fares in the betting market in comparison to his well-fancied stablemate.

Timeform

Some interesting newcomers on show. but PETER THE GREAT has run to a useful level both starts and it'll take a well-above average debutant to stop him even under a penalty. The market should reveal expectations for the unraced brigade, and Mahrajaan and Sheringham make plenty of appeal on paper, as does the selection's stable companion Shirbo.

Value

Peter The Great looks fabulous value at 8/13, he will surely start the race much shorter.

Peter The Great traded at a low of 1.23 and BSP of 3.75 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on. 

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021