PACAFI (23 June 2021)

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KING'S GUARD 7.10 Kempton at 5/4

   British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Class 4) 6f

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-4 for 50%           (10)
National average: 28%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 30%             (10)
RPR: 82                             (10)                            
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 6f                        (10)
Jockey: William Buick               (10)
National Average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 26%         (10) 
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Cavallucio Alt: Siraju

There is not a better trainer/jockey combination in the UK & Ireland than Charlie Appleby and William Buick and we refuse to argue the point. It is not just a case of good trainer meets good jockey, skill apart, the personalities suit as does their attention to detail. With no disrespects to the trainer it is a far better combination than the Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore one.

 Godolphin Comments 

Closely related to 7f winner Perfect Balance (RPR 81); finished well when second of six in 6f novice stakes at Nottingham in June 2021.

Outpaced at one point but ran well on debut

Charlie Appleby's King's Guard showed plenty of promise when runner-up at Nottingham in a Class 5 Novice on debut and the Oasis Dream colt looks best today. He was not expected to win on debut but ridden close up against a more experienced 8/11 Mark Johnston runner (Lope De Vega) that day and got outpaced just over a furlong out, but then stayed on very nicely over the final 110 yards going second, he will know more tomorrow. William Buick replaces Royston Ffrench and that is worth a few pounds to the horses chances.

Trainer form

Charlie Appleby is very much like John Gosden in that he never seems to be out of form, that said his national average of 28% is far higher than the 24% of Gosdens. Appleby does superbly well at Kempton scoring 103-341 for 30% (+0.99). His 2yos at the course do better again showing 61-198 for 31% (+10.46). The trainer runs two at Salisbury today with winning chances but just the Pacafi at Kempton tonight.

The BEST combination in UK & Ireland horseracing!

The combination with William Buick is brilliant and they show 310-1185 for a big 26%, and nearly £10m in total prizemoney. One could follow the combination blind and make a profit to level stakes. When the trainer employs Adam Kirby they are also worth staking with a return of 103-340 for 30% (+51.99) and nearly £2m in total prize money. If the Buick/Appleby combination is the best in the UK then the Buick/Kirby/Appleby is the best assemblage in the UK! It represents a betting system on its own!

Contenders

Cavalluccio, who ran on well at Lingfield on his first appearance, picked up a silver medal at Chepstow earlier this month and looks the main danger, while Ralph Beckett saddles an interesting newcomer in 110,000gns buy Siraju.

Timeform

Godolphin's KING'S GUARD showed up well on his Nottingham debut and is narrowly preferred to Chepstow runner-up Cavalluccio. Ralph Beckett debutant Siraju would also need considering if the betting suggests he's fancied.

Value

The 5/4 is close to perceived value but 11/8 would be better and we will seek the price on the Betfair Exchange. 

King's Guard traded at a low of 5.60 and BSP of 6.91 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021

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