September 17th, 2021
FERNANDO RAH 8.10 Bath at 11/8
Trainer Form: 5-33 for 15% (10) National average: 14% (10) Course Strike Rate: 22% (10) OR & RPR: 82 & 89 (10) Optimum Ground: Good (10) Distance: 5f (10) Jockey: Hector Crouch (9) National Average: 11% (10) Course Strike Rate: 13% (10) Trainer & Jockey Combo: 12% (10) Total: (99) Danger: Ginger Jam Alt: Vandad
The improving Fernando Rah must be hard to beat given his progressive profile. He was an impressive Wolverhampton winner last time and can only get better on his fourth ever start. He was a £50,000 yearling and a first foal and his dam was a 2yo 6f winner, and a half-sister to useful winner up to 9f (stayed 1½m) Romantic Settings. He comes into handicaps on a lenient mark. His trainer has a strike rate of 15% with his handicap debutants so above his national average.
Ratings show the Pacafi (OR 82) well in. Main danger Ginger Jam is rated 83 so has to give us 5lbs. The danger has run 24 times whilst ours just 3, so very much unexposed. The rider of our danger is Faye McManoman, she is on one losing run stretching 49 rides over a period of 38 days, we hope she stays on the cold list a little longer and hope for an anxious ride...
On debut over 6f at Wolverhampton he was made the 6/4 favourite in a Class 5 Novice so expected to win. He led for the first half of the race and lost second place in the final strides so a decent first run. Next up, he was made the even money favourite again this time on turf at Windsor over 5f in another Class 5 Novice when beaten a neck and a head. So he was expected to step up from his debut and win but showed he transferred his AW form to the turf. Finally, on his third start he continued his improvement winning at 15/8 an 8-runner Class 5 Novice back at Wolverhampton by 2½ lengths from Twilight Secret, making all.
Course and trip to suit
Hector Crouch rode the Pacafi for his win, Liam Keniry rode him for his defeats and we much prefer today's jockey. Stepping back to the stiff Bath 5f will not be a problem and the fact he won over 6f means he should hit the line hard. We imagine the jockey taking a lead if possible, but able to lead all the way if needed. The showers have taken the word firm out of the going title and they are expecting more showers today, we would prefer it not to be soft though the Wolverhampton course has been riding slow recently.
Clive Cox has his horses in decent form showing 5-33 for 15% over the last 14 days and above his national average. It is his excellent figures at Bath that catches the eye scoring 22-98 for a big 22% and a level stake profit of +7.76. The strike rate is 8% above his national average and significant. His combination with Hector Crouch is very good and the last 12 months show 6-37 for 16% and 51-436 for 12% in total. The jockey rides at 11% but 12% for Cox and 13% at Bath so the composite looks tight. Had Adam Kirby rode this one we imagine he would be an odds-on shot.
Daniel and Claire Hubler have their horses in good form, suggesting Seneca Chief may get involved in the finish back at his favoured five furlongs now. He has won four times over this trip and looks well handicapped. Vandad won his maiden at Brighton last time by six lengths on his 18th start. Ginger Jam built on his encouraging Thirsk effort to regain the winning thread over course and distance in June. He was then a respectable fourth of 10 in handicap at York over 5f on good ground just 6 days ago. He makes the long trip down to Bath in the hope of the Pacafi not progressing/underperforming but has to be beaten.
Sole 3yo FERNANDO RAH lacks the experience of his rivals but he does stand out as one who should have more to offer and is fancied to make a winning handicap debut. Vandad has made a positive start to life with new trainer Michael Attwater and could be the one to give Clive Cox's charge most to do.
We dived in to take a bit of 11/10 with William Hill before securing 11/8 with Bet365 just a little later. Value must be between those two numbers and though we were happy with the 11/10 it does look as though we have dived in prematurely. We will record the first price.
Fernando Rah traded at a high of 6.00 and BSP of 3.15 when winning last time, a race in which it led.
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