The Racing Horse offers our powerful Goodwood Racecourse Template for Saturday 31 July 2021 where we have all the PERTINENT numbers.
The going is now soft with showers expected.
GOODWOOD FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo: 40-99 for 40% (+1.15) 8-21 for 38% (+5.21) 3yo: 30-77 for 39% (-6.36) 40-142 for 28% (-17.53) 4yo+: 28-52 for 54% (+15.73) 62-163 for 38% (+35.92) Total: 98-228 for 43% (+10.01) 110-326 for 34% (+23.60) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Goodwood last 5 years Mark Johnston (16%): 38 wins from 286 for 13% (-79.57) Andrew Balding (15%): 29 wins from 190 for 15% (-47.97) William Haggas (23%): 24 wins from 122 for 20% (-0.80) Richard Hannon (12%): 21 wins from 267 for 8% (-86.83) John Gosden (24%): 19 wins from 92 for 21% (-21.66) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Goodwood last 5 years Oisin Murphy: 39 wins from 245 for 16% (-56.11) Jim Crowley: 33 wins from 178 for 19% (-52.56) Harry Bentley: 26 wins from 148 for 18% (+47.88) William Buick: 25 wins from 96 for 26% (+10.69) Silvestre De Sousa: 22 wins from 158 for 14% (-40.31) TOP 5 OWNERS at Goodwood last 5 years Hamdan Al Maktoum: 21-95 for 22% (-23.42) Godolphin: 20-116 for 17% (-47.55) K Abdullah: 14-48 for 29% (+25.44) Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum: 12-86 for 14% (-5.00) Qatar Racing Ltd: 8-41 for 20% (-7.37) Hot trainer 30/06/2021 to 31/07/2021 R Charlton: 13-51 for 25.5% (+9.00) Trainers Cold List J Portman: 47 (36 days) M Channon: 34 (15 days) R Spencer: 23 (47 days) J Tuite: 21 (32 days) Hot jockey 1/07/2021 to 31/07/2021 Oisin Murphy: 30-123 for 24.4% (+22.30) Jockeys Cold List Rhys Clutterbuck: 35 (24 days) Connor Murtagh: 33 (31 days) Cam Hardie: 27 (11 days) Saffie Osbourne: 23 (25 days) Sivestre De Sousa: 22 (10 days) Next fixtures Saturday 31 July 2021
THE STORY SO FAR...
Two winning favourites on day one, one on day two, and two more for day three makes it 5-22 for 23% so way below the expected average. As expected an upturn of winning favourites was expected and delivered on Friday when 4 of the 7 races were won by favourites at prices of 2/5, 2/1, 4/1 and 11/4. Our collated and betting landscape suggested this was likely to happen.
Who would have thought the Gosdens would not have had a winner at this meeting after 5 days? Of course they have only sent 3 there this week and 0 for today, and this decision cannot be based purely on ground, have they planned a Newmarket and Doncaster assault today? They are currently 0-11 over 7 days and look primed to explode. Amazingly, they have 7 runners today within 2 hours of each other. A win double looks (almost) certain but real chances of a win treble, stop at a winner anyone? It is worth naming them: CHIASMA 2.45N, POET OF LIFE 2.55D, TAQAREER 3.20N, HARROVIAN 3.30D, EXISTENT 3.35N, RANCHERO 4.30N and UBAHHA 4.37D.
Of the jockeys, we were certain William Buick was the man to follow this week and flagged him up despite not having the rides from Godolphin. He has now scored 7 winners from 21 rides for 33% at this week's meeting. His 5-year record at the course shows 26-102 for 25% (+12.69) and today he has 5 rides currently booked and looks to have a golden chance on WONDERFUL TONIGHT 3.05.
By the way, Silvestre De Sousa has not been spotted at Goodwood this week and shows 0-13, but 0-22 generally. He has 3 rides at the course today, will he end 0-25. We do feel we have missed something about his jockey, tomorrow he has just 2 rides and 3 on Monday - what has he done wrong?
1.20: DARK SHIFT (C Hills) beaten favourite last time out (6/1 6th)
1.55: ABLE KANE (B Millman) beaten favourite last time out (33/1 2nd)
2.30: URBAN ARTIST (H Morrison) beaten favourite last time out (9/2 2nd)
3.05: WONDERFUL TONIGHT (D Menuisier) trainer 1-2 at this Goodwood, William Buick rides (4/5 WINNER)
3.40: GREAT AMBASSADOR (E Walker) beaten favourite last time out (8/1 3rd)
4.10: DEVASBOYS (M Johnston) trainer has won 2 of last 10 runnings (12/1 4th)
4.45: THE WHIPMASTER (G L Moore) beaten favourite last time out (6/1 3rd)
Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Goodwood show their national averages over the past 5 years.
Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the maths suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.
JASON WEAVER on GOODWOOD
Goodwood’s stewards are surely among the busiest in Britain, as it’s tricky to ride and it’s easy to run into traffic problems, especially on the round course. The bottom turn claims its share of victims, because the ground there runs away from you, while the bend into the home straight is very sharp. You get congestion on the dogleg, too, as normally a fair few are still in contention at that point. On the sprint course, the quickest way home is in a straight line, which means the middle is usually a good spot.
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