Newcastle Racecourse Template (Monday 2 August 2021)

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The Racing Horse offers our Newcastle RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Monday 2 August 2021. There are 8 races from 2.18pm to 6.07pm which includes 7 handicaps and 1 novice. Our template is a COLLATED, BETTING LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW and one that is FACTUALLY BASED. This really is the BEST place to start those betting thought processes...

Newcastle FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                      Handicap
2yo:    54-161 for 34% (-56.29)    25-78   for 32%   (-5.93)
3yo:   107-226 for 47% (-19.69)   108-332  for 33%  (-24.14)
4yo+:   23-64  for 36%  (-6.70)   238-821  for 29% (-111.39)
Total: 184-451 for 41% (-82.67)   371-1231 for 30% (-141.45)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newcastle for current year
Richard Fahey:  12 wins from 76 for 16% (+25.57)
Keith Dalgleish: 9 wins from 33 for 27% (+17.69)
Andrew Balding:  8 wins from 25 for 32% (+37.14)
Kevin Ryan:      6 wins from 31 for 19%  (+4.11)
Mark Johnston:   6 wins from 51 for 12% (-23.11)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newcastle for past 5 years
Richard Fahey (11%):   83 wins from 662 for 13% (-19.64)
Jim Goldie (9%):       48 wins from 432 for 11% (+42.03)
John Gosden (24%):     47 wins from 145 for 32% (-16.71)
Mark Johnston (15%):   46 wins from 411 for 11% (-96.34)
Keith Dalgleish (11%): 39 wins from 358 for 11% (-89.63)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Newcastle for current year 
P J McDonald:    12 wins from 78 for 15% (+30.96)
Kevin Stott:     11 wins from 42 for 26%  (+8.79)
Callum Rodriquez: 7 wins from 39 for 18%  (+2.31)
Jason Hart:       7 wins from 51 for 14%  (-9.17)
Paul Hanagan:     6 wins from 33 for 18%  (+8.55)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Newcastle for past 5 years
Ben Curtis:       89 wins from 498 for 18% (+35.21)
P J McDonald:     73 wins from 588 for 12% (-95.93)
Daniel Tudhope:   64 wins from 344 for 19% (-37.28)
Joe Fanning:      61 wins from 432 for 14%  (-4.24)
Callum Rodriquez: 52 wins from 317 for 16% (+52.12)

TOP 5 OWNERS at Newcastle for past 5 years
Godolphin:         30 wins from 114 for 26% (-24.74)
Anthony Brittain:  27 wins from 239 for 11% (-34.32)
Hamdan Al Maktoum: 21 wins from  85 for 25% (-17.59)
K Abdullah:        16 wins from  33 for 48% (+25.99)
Saeed Manana:      14 wins from  80 for 18% (-26.05)

Hot trainer 03/07/21 to 02/08/21
J Tate: 6-20 for 30% (+1.00) 

Trainers Cold List
Stef Keniry:  72
M Herrington: 44
M Todhunter:  42
R Barr:       39
G Oldroyd:    38
 
Hot jockey 03/07/21 to 02/08/21
Dylan Hogan: 6-40 for 17.5% (+23.70)

Jockeys Cold List
Laura Coughlan: 36
Connor Murtagh: 34
Cam Hardie:     28
Tony Hamilton:  22
Lewis Edmunds:  20

Fixtures
Monday 2 August 2021
Friday 20 August 2021
  •  BEST CATEGORY FAVOURITES: 3yo favourites in non-handicaps win at around 47% over the past 5 years for a small level stake loss.
  • WORST CATEGORY FAVOURITES: 4yo+ favourites in handicaps show 29% and a big level stake loss. The 29% is substantially below the average return for winning favourites. 
  • TRAINERS: John Gosden scores at 8% above his national average, and one that already sets a high standard. Opposing a Gosden runner at this course (32%) demands a strong rationale (we will continue to use the national average figures of John Gosden as opposed to J & T Gosden for the remainder of this season). He is not sending any runners to this course on Monday.
  • OWNERS: Many will be surprised that Anthony Brittain (NA 8%) claims the number 2 spot ahead of those wealthy Arab owners and only Godophin has scored more winners over the last 5 years. The trainer scores at 10% at the course so 2% above his NA. He sends 3 to the track on Monday.
  • GODOLPHIN: Strange that leading owners Godolphin are sending just one up to Newcastle on this long trip (entered at Bath on Wednesday) and then ask a certain Sean Kirrane (5) to ride it? Highest rated (86) in the field but 9/1 available with William Hill. Saeed bin Suroor is currently 2-5 for 40% and 12-61 for 20% at the course past 5 years. The jockey is 1-4 for 25% for the trainer.

PERTINENCE

2.18: LIBBY AMI (J J Quinn) C&D winner, beaten favourites last time out (7/2 6th)
2.18: ANOTHER BOND (R Menzies) formerly with O Pears (150/1 13th)
2.18: ELLADORA (K Scott) drops from Class 4 to Class 6 (40/1 12th)

2.53: BOIS DE NORTON (R Fahey) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, cheek pieces (18/1 11th)
2.53: LOFTY (T D Barron) C&D winner, weighted to win 70 > 54, cheek piece (3/1 5th)
2.53: TOOLMAKER (T Davidson) trainer 20% for horses between 7f and up to 10f (6/1 8th)

3.25: TWICE ADAAY (A Keatley) cheek piece (5/1 8th)
3.25: SEEKING PERFECTION (K Burke) C&D winner (10/1 2nd)
3.25: PUCHITA (A Brittain) 0-17, jockey Cam Hardie 0-28, cheek piece (17/2 6th)

4.00: GOLDEN HIND (D O'Meara) C&D winner, tongue strap, cheek pieces (9/4 5th)
4.00: RUE DE LA GAITE (K Scott) formerly with Tom Clover, significantly up in trip (66/1 6th)

4.33: RAISE THE ROOF (J Tate) promising, 2-3, trainer 22% since 2017 and 19% with handicap debutants (2/1 3rd)
4.33: TRICOLORE (M Botti) beaten favourite last time out, gelded since, trainer shows profit of £69.60 to a £1 with horses running after a break (6/1 4th)
4.33: DUBAI SOUQ (Saeed bin Suroor) strange Godolpin entry? (7/1 6th)

5.03: MASQUE OF ANARCHY (T Fitzgerald) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with S Hanlon (13/2 WINNER)
5.03: ONLY DEBRIS (J Parr) drops from Class 4 to Class 6, visor (20/1 5th)
5.03: THAWRY (A Brittain) C&D winner, weighted to win 56 > 50, visor (14/1 10th)

5.37: SHE'S THE DANGER (A Keatley) beaten favourite last time out (5/1 WINNER)
5.37: DAJARUS (I Jardine) drops from Class 2 to Class 5 (80/1 7th)

6.07: NIAGARRA (E Alston) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows profit of £32.42 to £1 with winning favourites, cheek piece (7/2 2nd)
6.07: RAABEH (A Brittain) beaten favourite last time out, 0-18, cheek piece (12/1 10th)
6.07: GUARDIA SVIZZERA (A Brown) 0-18, weighted to win 52 > 45 (40/1 12th)

NATIONAL AVERAGE

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Goodwood show their national averages over the past 5 years.

Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.

JASON WEAVER - NEWCASTLE RACECOURSE

It’s a massive advantage to get anywhere near the fence in races on the round course at Newcastle, especially in an event like the Northumberland Plate, because the turns are long and, if you’re more than three or four deep, you’re forfeiting loads of ground. You need to be on a very good one to win from a wide berth. There’s a bit of a run off on the round track, too, where the ground tends to fall away from you quite steeply towards the initial bend. It’s a very fair track, though, beautiful to ride.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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