The Racing Horse offers our powerful Windsor Racecourse Template for Monday 2 August 2021. There is a 6-race card containing 5 handicaps and I fillies' novice. First race 5.45pm and last 8.15pm. Our template is a COLLATED, BETTING LANDSCAPE, OVERVIEW and one that is FACTUALLY BASED. This really is the BEST place to start those betting thought processes...
The going is good to soft and good in places
WINDSOR FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo: 62-130 for 46% (+11.81) 6-14 for 43% (+5.66) 3yo: 54-124 for 44% (-11.47) 80-240 for 33% (-5.80) 4yo+: 10-25 for 40% (-3.64) 74-251 for 29% (-31.43) Total: 126-279 for 45% (-3.29) 160-505 for 32% (-31.58) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Windsor last 5 years Richard Hannon (12%): 57 wins from 314 for 18% (+11.93) Andrew Balding (15%): 27 wins from 143 for 19% (-15.24) Clive Cox (14%): 25 wins from 161 for 16% (-21.65) William Haggas (23%): 22 wins from 76 for 29% (-15.27) Mick Channon (11%): 22 wins from 147 for 15% (-20.75) TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Windsor last 5 years Oisin Murphy: 57 wins from 314 for 18% (-62.70) Tom Marquand: 49 wins from 296 for 17% (+58.49) James Doyle: 37 wins from 146 for 25% (+19.06) Silvestre De Sousa: 30 wins from 107 for 28% (+34.14) Adam Kirby: 29 wins from 181 for 16% (-35.61) TOP 5 OWNERS at Windsor last 5 years Godolphin: 14-74 for 19% (-30.71) King Power Racing: 13-48 for 27% (+3.77) Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum: 10-24 for 42% (+37.22) Cheveley Park Stud: 10-36 for 28% (+14.93) Al Shaqab Racing: 7-25 for 28% (+7.40) Hot Trainer P Evans: 11-48 for 22.9% (+14.50) Trainers Cold List R J Price: 47 (last winner in October 2020) J Portman: 49 (38 days) G Brown: 43 (2968 days) M Channon: 41 (17 days) R Spencer: 26 (49 days) Hot Jockey 03/7/2021 to 02/08/2021 Oisin Murphy: 29-121 for 24% (+25.60) Jockeys Cold List Kieran O'Neill: 25 (16 days) John Egan: 20 (18 days) Darragh Keenan: 21 (18 days) Jamie Spencer: 16 (10 days) Next fixtures Monday 2 August 2021 Sunday 8 August 2021 Monday 9 August 2021 Monday 16 August 2021
- BEST CATEGORY FAVOURITES: 2yo favourites in non-handicaps win at around 46% over the past 5 years for a decent level stake profit.
- WORST CATEGORY FAVOURITES: 4yo+ favourites in handicaps show 29% and a sizeable level stake loss. The 29% is substantially below the average return for winning favourites.
- TRAINERS: William Haggas scores 6% above his national average at this course and 10% above Andrew Balding. Haggas has no entries for Monday at Windsor but sends an interesting sort up to Ripon (only runner). Richard Hannon scores heavily at Windsor at 18% (6% above his NA) but sends no runners also.
- GOSDEN: Interesting the team sends only one runner to the course and 0 at Newcastle. FUTURE will be ridden by Oisin Murphy and clearly the one to beat. Team Gosden are currently 1-18 but recorded 8 second places, they are also striking at 20% which is a fair bit below the 24% before the partnership. They could be ready to hit a seam of form? We are ready to take advantage if we can get those prices...
- JOCKEYS: Not sure if the member is aware of the form of Jamie Spencer, is he a little closer to retirement (again)? His last two months are particularly disappointing. His national average is 15% and he rides at 17% at Windsor but, June 21 shows 5-64 for 8% (-47.08) and July 3-53 for 6% (-31.92) totalling 8-117 for just 6.84% (-79.00). Ouch! He goes to Windsor for just one ride - HEATH RISE 5.45 (£2,700 to the winner). The jockey has only one booked ride for tomorrow...
- OWNERS: The horses from the Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum operation strike best albeit from a smaller sample: 10-24 for 42% (+37.22)
5.45: REALMS OF LOVE (M Johnston) longest traveller 238 miles (11/2 9th)
6.15: BASCULE (R Hughes) beaten favourite last time out. Oisin Murphy rides (5/2 2nd)
6.45: LIHOU (P Evans) beaten favourite last time out (25/1 12th)
7.15: FUTURE (J & T Gosden) beaten favourite last time out (6/5 WINNER)
7.45: LETHAL BLAST (J Bridger) beaten favourite last time out (9/2 3rd)
8.15: SAGAUTEUR (D O'Meara) 0-11, long traveller 232 miles (10/3 4th)
Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Goodwood show their national averages over the past 5 years.
Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position, not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.
|JASON WEAVER - WINDSOR RACECOURSE
Windsor’s bottom turn has been christened ‘carnage corner’ and you can get into all sorts of trouble if the one in front slows down there, causing a concertina effect. It’s a sharp right-hander and if you employ different tactics, kicking-on on a front-runner there, you can really get those behind you at it, especially anybody caught wide. You need a balanced horses at Windsor, even though the course is flat, and a ballsy ride can pay dividends, because a path can often open up late-on on the stands’ rail.
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