Kempton Park Racecourse Template (4 August 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful Racecourse Template for Kempton for Wednesday 4 August 2021. There is an 8-race card with 4 handicaps and 4 novices and a great opportunity to produce a profit from the meeting.

WHAT are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

The going is expected to be standard to slow (showers)

KEMPTON PARK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

Non-handicap                       Handicap
2yo:    123-283 for 43% (-24.87)   31-111   for 28%  (-20.61)
3yo:    116-256 for 45% (-16.21)   155-510  for 30%  (-56.26)
4yo+:    47-102 for 46%  (+4.06)   246-801  for 31%  (-56.30)
Total:  286-641 for 45% (-37.01)   432-1422 for 30% (-133.17)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for current year
Roger Varian :  8 wins from 21 for 38%  (+2.37)
Mark Johnston:  8 wins from 31 for 26% (+22.57)
Richard Hannon: 8 wins from 42 for 19% (-10.00)
Andrew Balding: 7 wins from 26 for 27% (+39.22)
John Gosden:    6 wins from 14 for 43%  (+3.03)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for past 5 years
John Gosden:    76 wins from 302 for 25%  (-32.34)
Richard Hannon: 62 wins from 591 for 10% (-150.81)
Roger Varian:   55 wins from 249 for 22%  (-22.48)
Andrew Balding: 54 wins from 335 for 16%  (+39.03)
Archie Watson:  50 wins from 239 for 21%  (-18.90)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for current year
Hollie Doyle:      20 wins from 104 for 19%  (-8.47)
Richard Kingscote: 11 wins from  87 for 13% (-37.71)
David Probert:     11 wins from  91 for 12% (+15.72)
Daniel Muscutt:    10 wins from  52 for 19%  (+6.69)
Jack Mitchell:     10 wins from  57 for 18%  (-7.42)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for past 5 years
Oisin Murphy: 102 wins from 583 for 17%  (-83.48)
Adam Kirby:    75 wins from 596 for 13% (-210.91)
Luke Morris:   74 wins from 832 for  9% (-160.37)
Tom Marquand:  69 wins from 648 for 11%  (-62.19)
David Probert: 68 wins from 704 for 10% (-129.64) 

William Buick: 39 wins from 151 for 26%  (-25.28)
James Doyle:   64 wins from 280 for 23%  (+33.34)

TOP 5 OWNERS at KEMPTON for past 5 years
Godolphin:          74 wins from 267 for 28% (-44.42)
Hamdan Al Maktoum:  51 wins from 229 for 22% (+30.16)
K Abdullah:         28 wins from 118 for 24%  (-3.50)
King Power Racing:  24 wins from 110 for 22%  (+3.31)
Cheveley Park Stud: 16 wins from 124 for 13% (-29.87)

Hot Trainer 05/07/2021 to 04/08/2021
Charlie Appleby: 15-49 for 30.6% (-4.39)

Trainer Cold List
J Portman: 54 (40 days)
J Fox:     46 (638 days)
J Ryan:    45 (86 days)
M Channon: 45 (19 days)
J Feilden: 35 (51 days)

Hot Jockey 05/07/2021 to 04/08/2021
Louis Steward: 8-29 for 27.6% (+31.02)
 
Jockey Cold List
Ben Sanderson:  46 (105 days)
Sam Hitchott:   43 (118 days)
George Downing: 33 (79 days)
Darragh Keenan: 24 (20 days)

Fixtures
Wednesday 4 August 2021
Wednesday 11 August 2021
Wednesday 18 August 2021
Friday 20 August 2021
Wednesday 25 August 2021
    • BEST CATEGORY FAVOURITE: 4yo+ winning favourites in non-handicaps fare best at Kempton scoring at 46% and provide a small level stake profit to SP.
    • WORST CATEGORY FAVOURITE: Favourites in handicaps at Kempton show 30% and below the national average. Of the three age groups in this category the 2yos have the lowest strike rate at 28%.
    • TRAINERS: John Gosden is the trainer for Kempton firing in winners at 25% and we rarely oppose one of his in the top 3 in the betting. Roger Varian scores heavily at 22% but neither compare with Charlie Appleby, here are his figures since 2017:
Charlie Appleby at Kempton
2021:   5-14  for 36%
2020:  13-38  for 34%
2019:   4-12  for 33%
2018:  11-20  for 55%
2017:   8-19  for 42%
Total: 41-103 for 40%
  • JOCKEYS: Tonight we have Hollie Doyle (6), William Buick (6), James Doyle (6), Silvestre De Sousa (4), Tom Marquand (7) and top jockey at the track Oisin Murphy (8) competing and riding favoured horses. Between them they will TOTALLY DOMINATE proceedings and our angle into the racing. In brackets show the number of rides. PREDICTION: Of the 8 races they will ride AT LEAST 6 winners! We have set aside a separate bank, and with the help of the paddock and the betting market, will play at the course tonight, wagering just before post time. With 4 novice races on the card, we must make a profit especially given the fairness of the track (no 5f or 6f races tonight)
  • OWNERS: Godolphin reign supreme at Kempton and have fantastic figures largely down to Charlie Appleby. Saeed bin Suroor shows 28-132 for 21% for the past 5 years. Strange there should be such a big disparity between the two trainers?

PERTINENCE

5.25:
THUNDERCLAP (H Morrison) Oisin Murphy 35% when riding favourites, top jockey at course (2/1 WINNER)
SOPHOSC (I Williams) beaten favourite last time out (7/1 8th)
POET'S EYE (K Philippart De Foy) ridden by James Doyle 23% at the course (4/1 3rd)

6.00:
VALIANT PRINCE (C Appleby) Godolphin 28% at Kempton but trainer 40%. Shouldn’t be inconvenienced by any pace scenario. Cannot be opposed (8/11 2nd)
3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps: 116-256 for 45%

6.30:
MO'ASSESS (Saeed bin Suroor) Godolphin 28% at Kempton. Oisin Murphy 35% strike rate on favourites (1/3 WINNER)
3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps: 116-256 for 45%

7.00:
KING'S GUARD (C Appleby) Godolphin 28% at Kempton but trainer 40%. Beaten favourite last time out. William Buick at 26% rides (10/3 4th)
STATE CONTROL (A Watson) trainer 21% since 2017 (16/1 8th)
CARBON (R Varian) trainer 22% since 2017 (14/1 6th)
2yo winning favourites in non-handicaps: 123-283 for 43%

7.30:
ALIOMAANA (M Harris) beaten favourite last time out (25/1 8th)
PENNYMOOR (J & T Gosden) Godolphin at 28% at Kempton. James Doyle 23% at the course (10/11 WINNER)
PIROUETTE QUEEN (D Elsworth) shows profit of £10.49 to £1 when one runner at meeting (14/1 7th)
3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps: 116-256 for 45%

8.00:
CHAI YO POWER (M Stoute) trainer in form, big improver (6/4 WINNER)
CIVILIAN (S & E Crisford) shows profit of £16.50 when one runner at meeting. Andrea Atzeni has 24% at the course (15/2 6th)

8.30:
VINO VICTRIX (H Morrison) Oisin Murphy 35% on favourites, top jockey at course (5/4 WINNER)
FOREVER WILLIAM (A King) beaten favourite last time out (4/1 3rd)
KHAIZ (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, Godolphin 28% at Kemtpon but trainer 40% (9/4 4th)

9.00:
SUPER OVER (A Watson) trainer 21% since 2017 at Kempton (7/2 2nd)
MOTORIOUS (S C Williams) beaten favourite last time out (13/8 WINNER)
FORD MADOX BROWN: D O'Meara longest traveller 269 miles (5/2 5th)

JASON WEAVER - KEMPTON RACECOURSE

The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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