Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

SHALLOW MEN BELIEVE in LUCK. STRONG MEN BELIEVE in CAUSE and EFFECT - Ralph Waldo Emerson (25 May 1803 - 27 April 1882)


There have been times (in the distant past) when we have said to ourselves 'we are due a winner' but of course we are due ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! There is no mathematical rule/equation suggesting anyone is due anything? Likewise, we used to say 'we are due a change of luck' and of course that is nonsense too! Luck has neither memory nor consciousness, it is a commodity of hindsight and the reason why no reader or member will ever read the word 'LUCK' on The Racing Horse as part of an excuse for a losing bet! Those who use any of the above phrases are kidding themselves, making excuses or seeking solace, sometimes all at the same time!

Our spreadsheet and those of other professionals does not contain a column titled luck or nearly, and it does not contain one for bad jockey rides. It contains win, lose, profit and loss. Nothing else exists, absolutely nothing, just WIN, LOSE, PROFIT and LOSS and it is within this framework we work...


The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future. Or, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). This fallacy can arise in many practical situations but is most strongly associated with gambling.


There is no quantifiable optimum sports betting strategy. A winning strategy cannot be proved as such, there must always be always be a possibility that one is winning through good fortune. Our approach and strategy is geared to making incremental gains over a period but just as important, to do so without risk. Whilst it is impossible to know everything, with experience and a mathematical aptitude contained within a strategy, it is possible to develop a confident, effective and winning approach.


Our betting represents our primary source of income, we have an obsession with finding that next winner but with perceived value attached. Inevitably this means spending an inordinate amount of time searching, evaluating and checking data. Minutes of delving often lead to hours, then more hours (and then a lifetime) but it is something we enjoy. Finding winners on its own is not enough to profit from betting, we absolutely must find winners with perceived value!


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.


Absolutely everything written above is about numbers. Bob Dylan said "chaos is a friend of mine" and we think we understand the comment. This metaphor suggests chaos is something he knows, is familiar with, or enjoys. He might even treat it as a friend or comfort - we feel the same about numbers. In that regard we are absolutely delighted our members are enjoying our RACECOURSE TEMPLATES!


The original intention was to provide a clean/pertinent betting landscape overview of a particular meeting but it does more than that, it highlights strengths and weaknesses in a wager, focuses on winning areas and often select winners within its own process! Luck cannot exist within a template, whilst chaos is replaced by clarity, random is replaced by fact, and bias is denied space.

SHALLOW MEN BELIEVE in LUCK. STRONG MEN BELIEVE in CAUSE and EFFECT - Ralph Waldo Emerson (25 May 1803 - 27 April 1882)


Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *