Newbury Racecourse Template (Saturday 14 August 2021)

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The Racing Horse offers our Newbury RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Friday 13 August 2021. There is an 7-race card containing a Group 2, a Group 3, a Listed Race, 3 Handicaps and a Maiden for 3yo. The ground is expected to be good.

Left handed, galloping. The straight mile course is undulating throughout. One of the fairest courses in the country, though its galloping nature makes it ideal for the big, long-striding type, and the track becomes testing in inclement weather. Whilst the majority of the action on the straight course usually takes place on the stand rail, those who choose to come down the centre of the track instead can find themselves at an advantage.

Newbury FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                      Handicap
2yo:    51-158 for 32% (-38.31)    6-15  for 40%  (+0.49)
3yo:    33-100 for 33% (-18.89)   39-132 for 30% (-10.83)
4yo+:    20-38 for 53% (+16.84)   28-133 for 21% (-47.54)
Total: 104-296 for 35% (-40.35)   73-280 for 26% (-57.87)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Newbury for past 5 years
Richard Hannon (12%): 52 wins from 430 for 12% (-19.03)
John Gosden (24%):    38 wins from 139 for 27% (+19.80)
William Haggas (10%): 34 wins from 170 for 20% (-11.74)
Roger Charlton (11%): 24 wins from 146 for 16% (+34.61)
Roger Varian (12%):   20 wins from 131 for 15%  (+3.13)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Newbury for past 5 years
James Doyle (21%):     39 wins from 183 for 21%  (+6.44)
Jim Crowley (19):      35 wins from 245 for 14% (+27.08)
Frankie Dettori (24%): 33 wins from 107 for 31% (+23.64)
Oisin Murphy (18):     32 wins from 248 for 13% (-61.02)
Ryan Moore (19):       27 wins from 180 for 15% (-62.09)

TOP 5 OWNERS at Newbury for past 5 years
Hamdan Al Maktoum: 27-150 for 18% (+33.67)
Godolphin:         25-103 for 24%  (-9.37)
K Abdullah:        20-75  for 27% (+13.85)
Mohammed Obaid:     9-49  for 18% (-14.50)
King Power Racing:  8-59  for 14% (-20.13)

Hot Trainers 15/07/2021 to 14/08/2021
H Palmer:  14-50  for 28.0% (+1.37)
A Balding: 28-119 for 23.5% (+7.30)

Trainer Cold List
M Gillard:    146 (1851 days) 1 runner
E Dunlop:      29   (23 days) 1 runner
J Tuite:       28   (46 days) 1 runner
B J Llewellyn: 20   (44 days) 1 runner
C Cox:         16    (7 days) 2 runners

Hot Jockey 15/07/21 to 14/08/2021
William Buick: 31-138 for 22.5% (+20.36)

Jockeys Cold List
Chris Hayes:            38 (13 days) 1 ride
Miss Jessica Llewellyn: 30
Miss Sarah Bowen:       21
Pat Dobbs:              20  (9 days) 3 rides
Rob Hornby:             20  (7 days) 4 rides
Hollie Doyle:           16  (3 days) 5 rides

Fixtures
Saturday 14 August 2021
Tuesday 24 August 2021
  • COURSE: Generally speaking Newbury is a POOR course for winning favourites, where 4 of the 6 categories lose heavily. In all 6 categories of age and race type, the course records 177-576 for 31% (past 5 years) which is below the standard/national average. When we consider the quality of the horses running here, alongside the fair nature of the track the disappointing returns are hard to explain. We rarely have a Pacafi at this course but we do today with Huxum!
  • BEST CATEGORY FAVOURITES: 4yo winning favourites in non-handicaps show 20-38 for 53% (+16.84). The small sample means we cannot take these results too seriously.
  • WORST CATEGORY FAVOURITES: In handicaps, winning 4yo+ favourites return a miserable 28-133 for 21% (-47.54) and around 10% below the strike rate expected.
  • TRAINERS: This is one of those courses where only top trainers need apply, and especially in the non-handicap races.
  • JOCKEYS: Likewise, the best jockeys do best here. Our eyes are drawn to James Doyle v Ryan Moore, from the same number of rides. We will not see Frankie Dettori this weekend, he is in Deauville for the big bucks, has one ride tomorrow but four on Sunday. Hollie Doyle is currently 0-16 with 4 second places amongst them, she must be followed from tomorrow! She has 5 rides tomorrow at Newbury though we cannot spot an obvious winner, will she go 0-21? One runner at Deauville on Sunday and then four at Catterick on Monday...
  • OWNERS: In line with high profile trainers and jockeys, the wealthy Arab owners tend to dominate proceedings and fill the top 5 positions.

 PERTINENCE

1.15
MOJO STAR (R Hannon) drops from Group 1 to Class 3, cannot be opposed (1/6 WINNER)

1.45
MASEKELA (A Balding) drops from Group 2 to Listed, William Buick rides (6/4 WINNER)
BAYSIDE BOY (R Varian) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race (6/4 2nd)
Exacta £4.10  CSF £3.63

2.20
HUKUM (O Burrows) PACAFI STATUS (Evens WINNER)

2.55
AJYAALL (W Haggas) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, is 22% with horses in races 7f up to 10f and 24% in mid-season (11/4 6th)
SUNSET BAY (E Walker) C&D winner, ridden by Hollie Doyle (7/2 2nd)

3.30
AL SUHAIL (C Appleby) trainer's strike rate is 27% with horses 7f to 10f and William Buick rides (11/4 6th)
NJORD (J Harrington) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows profit of £28.57 to £1 when one runner at meeting, jockey 0-38 (11/1 3rd)

LANEQASH (R Varian) beaten favourite last time out (22/1 2nd)

4.00
TAWAAREQ (M Stoute) trainer is 21% with horses running 10f+ (13/8 WINNER)
CAMELOT TALES (S & E Crisford) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides and 38% on favourites (85/40 4th)

4.35
ESTRELA STAR (A Stronge) beaten favourite last time out (10/3 2nd)
TRALEE HILLS (S Hodgson) shows profit of £40.06 to £1 when one runner at meeting (7/4 3rd)
VALENTINO DANCER (F O'Brien) formerly with O Murphy (7/2 WINNER)
Exacta £15.70  CSF £15.36

2.20: Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) 1m5f61y

12/12: Previous winner that season (100%)
12/12: At least 2 previous flat win (100%)
11/12: Rated 103 or higher (92%)
17/19: Won over 1m4f or further before (89%)
10/12: Ran within the last 37 days (83%)
15/19: Aged 3-5yo (79%)
14/19: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (74%)
14/19: Shorter than 4/1 (74%)
12/19: Rated 110 or higher (63%)
10/19: Winning favourites (53%) 

4yo+ winning favourites in non-handicaps: 20-38 for 53% (+16.84)

Hukum at 4/1 won the race in 2020 and the trends heavily suggest he will follow up! His trainer Owen Burrows is in form scoring with 2 from his last 5 runners, with another just beaten a neck. The trainer's Newbury form is poor showing just 3-44 for 7% (-21.00) but his charge is a course and distance winner which counts for plenty. He will be well ridden and is not only our nomination but our Pacafi for tomorrow. 

3.30: Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) 7f (Str)

12/12: Drawn 6 or lower (100%)
17/19: Not win last time out (89%)
17/19: Won Listed or Group race before (89%)
16/19: Won over 7f before (84%)
16/19: Rated 108 or more (84%)
10/12: Aged 3 or 4yo (83%)
10/12: Rated 110 or higher (83%)
9/12: Ran within the last 57 days (75%) 

4yo+ winning favourites in non-handicaps: 20-38 for 53% (+16.84)

JASON WEAVER - NEWBURY RACECOURSE

There aren’t many fairer courses than Newbury, which is big and galloping, but, probably due to the woodland on the far side, it can sometimes ride a good bit softer down the back straight than it does in the home straight. There’s very little draw bias on the straight track and there’s no wonder so many trainers want to send their classy horses there. The one tricky start is the one up in the spur (the round 1m) and that can prove draw-dependent. Otherwise, you get very few hard-luck stories at Newbury.

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