Hollie, Deauville and the Rag

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

There is so much we do not know or understand in horse racing, and the main reason we use numbers to help us. This morning we were thinking particularly of Hollie Doyle.

Hollie has gone to Deauville to ride one horse - looking at its profile and watching his races to date, do not know why? She rides the 3yo colt Laos (3.25) for Archie Watson in a Listed race, and from a form perspective has little chance of making the frame yet alone win! Laos is the rag and rank outsider in the field, and as we go to post is readily available at 25/1.

The colt has been on the go since 3 February 2021 with no break and raced 6 times so far, today will be his 7th of the current campaign. He won a Class 5 Novice at Kempton and then a third place next time up. For some reason Watson has raced him on every type of ground and from heavy to good, and on the All Weather, the phrase optimum ground springs to mind. His SP on his last two starts were 40/1 & 28/1. He has raced 3 times in France now, so perhaps the owner lives or has connections there, but the horse does not appear to be going forward.

We understand Hollie's connection with the trainer and her desire to showcase her talents on the world stage, but there is plenty of time for that to happen and doubt Laos will give much chance to shine. In context, she had 7 rides at Ffos Las on Thursday, 7 rides at Newbury on Friday, and 6 rides at Newbury on Saturday. After making this trip and all the energy involved, she returns and immediately and goes up north to Catterick to ride 6 more on Monday. Of course she is only 24-years old and one of the fittest jockeys riding but why this trip, to what end? We are clearly missing something!

We do accept Deauville is the place to be for some today. The Prix Du Haras De Fresnay-Le-Buffard Jacques Le Marios (Group 1) 7f210y is worth £510,179 and Palace Pier attempts to win the race again for Frankie Dettori and John and Thady Gosden. Frankie has spent the week in France preparing for this race. The 10/11 readily available looks tempting and was considered a Pacafi.

WHAT are RACECOURSE TEMPLATES?

We will produce a Racecourse Template for Catterick for Monday. Hollie is currently on a losing run of 21 now including 5 second places, she is ultra-competitive and will be hurting, we doubt very much the losing run will become 27 by 4.40pm.

We are off racing at Chepstow on Thursday so will have a really good look at the card before and then write a blog about it on Friday. Later today we will commit to more Racecourse Templates and then email alert members of what they are...

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MATHEMATICS are the GOVERNING FORCE of SUCCESSFUL HORSE RACING BETTING. 
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning, and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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