York Racecourse Template (Wednesday 18 August 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment
The Racing Horse offers our RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for York. The figures provide a betting landscape giving pertinence to various types of races, whilst highlighting those trainers and jockeys best placed to win them.

 

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YORK RACECOURSE TEMPLATE

YORK FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                      Handicap
2yo:    41-102 for 40%  (+6.90)     5-23 for 22%  (-4.00)
3yo:    16-52  for 31% (-17.05)    31-97 for 32% (+15.84)
4yo+:   27-57  for 47%  (+8.25)   53-198 for 27% (+13.79)
Total: 84-211  for 40%  (-1.90)   89-318 for 28% (+25.63)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at YORK for last 5 years
William Haggas (23%): 35 wins from 181 for 19%  (-11.22)
Richard Fahey (11%):  35 wins from 521 for  7% (-195.37)
Tim Easterby (10%):   34 wins from 407 for  8%  (+66.12)
Mark Johnston (15%):  28 wins from 218 for 13%  (-11.75)
John Gosden (24%):    24 wins from  85 for 28%   (-3.12)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at YORK for last 5 years
Daniel Tudhope:  30 wins from 273 for 11% (-49.25)
David Allan:     21 wins from 207 for 10%  (-9.87)
James Doyle:     20 wins from 114 for 18% (+10.62)
Frankie Dettori: 19 wins from  78 for 24% (-11.24)
Jim Crowley:     19 wins from 111 for 17%  (+1.87)

TOP FIVE OWNERS at YORK for last 5 years
Goldolphin:        19-116 for 16% (-26.47)
Hamdan Al Maktoum: 17-93  for 18%  (+6.65)
King Power Racing: 13-59  for 22% (+56.45)
K Abdullah:        10-43  for 23%  (+2.64)
Clipper Logistics: 10-75 for 13% (+56.25)

Hot Trainers 19/07/2021 to 18/08/2021
Grant Tuer:      8-13 for 34.8% (+17.19)
William Haggas: 24-80 for 30.0%  (-7.00)

Trainers Cold List
L Mullaney:    44 (222 days) 1 runner
D C Griffiths: 40 (99 days)  1 runner
A Brittain:    37 (37 days)  1 runner
J S Bolger:    31 (13 days)  1 runner
T D Barron:    28 (24 days)  1 runner

Hot Jockeys 19/07/2021 to 18/08/2021
Oisin Murphy:  41-139 for 29.5% (+18.94) 6 rides
David Probert: 28-112 for 25.0% (+27.36) 3 rides
William Buick: 31-141 for 22.0% (+26.29) 4 rides

Jockeys Cold List
Sam Hitchcott: 55
Kevin Manning: 31
Jamie Spencer: 26
Rob Hornby:    25
  • PACAFI: PERFECT NEWS 2.05 Carlisle at 6/4
  • COURSE: Left handed, flat. In essence, a very fair track, ideal for the long-striding galloper. In recent seasons, the field tends to come more down the centre of the track than has historically been the case, particularly if conditions are testing. 
  • FAVOURITES: Generally speaking favourites do not have a great record here but in total contradiction show a profit to level stakes in handicaps even the 28% strike rate is below the national average.
  • TRAINERS: Only John Gosden has performed above his 24% national average at this track over the past 5 years. J & T Gosden are showing 21% and we do expect that figure to rise before the end of the season.
  • AIDAN O'BRIEN is mob-handed in the 3.00 (3 runners) so 4 runners in total. It is our experience his runners in the UK are given too much respect in winning numbers against strike rate, but we often talk about context! O'Brien has won £8,122,814 in prize money at York (ALL) but only at a 13% strike rate (-111.12). His 5-year figures at the course are horrendous, recording 4-57 for 7% so we factor these numbers into everything we do at this course! By the way 2019 showed 1-18 for 6% (-12.00)
  • Charlie Appleby runs 3, Gosdens 1, Roger Varian 1, William Haggas is currently top trainer at the track and runs 3, Jim Bolger runs just 1 and on a losing run of 30. Richard (Layim) Fahey has a miserable strike rate of 7% and he runs 1. Grant Tuer is top hot trainer and he runs 1.
  • JOCKEYS: Frankie is taking things easy these days and has just one ride for Aidan O'Brien (5 rides tomorrow). When did that last happen at a major meet? Danny Tudhope is easily top jockey re winning numbers and will ride winners this week.
  • RYAN MOORE (see Aidan O'Brien) scores 13-127 for 10% (-59.18) over the past 5 years. Not sure what members think, but the 10% strike is hard to accept given requisite skill, quality of rides, stables he rides for and first choices? The only conclusion we can draw is he does not ride the course as well as he might.

PERTINENCE

1.50
HURRICANE IVOR (W Haggas) trainer 24% in mid-season
MAJOR JUMBO (K Ryan) C&D winner, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
LIVE IN THE MOMENT (A West) C&D winner, trainer shows profit of £69.35 when one runner at meeting

LAHORE (P Makin) C&D winner, weighted to win 101 > 97

2.25
NOBLE TRUTH (C Appleby) trainer 27% with horses running between 7f and 10f and 24% in mid-season. 20-98 for +20% (+0.43) at York (all)

3.00
YIBIR & KEMARI (C Appleby) 24% in mid-season, 24% with horses running over 10f+. 20-98 for +20% (+0.43) at York (all)
SIR LUCAN (A O'Brien) first time blinkers, Frankie Dettori 24% at York, just one ride today. The trainer runs 3 in the race.

3.35
MISHRIFF (J & T Gosden) has won £11,687,009.11 in prize money
LOVE (A O'Brien) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, beaten favourite last time out

4.10
GET SHIRTY (D O'Meara) first time tongue strap, formerly with C Ferland
THEMAXWECAN (M Johnston) first time blinkers, trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
ARCADIAN SUNRISE (J Queally) longest traveller 316 miles

4.45
PRINCESS POWER (N Tinkler) first time blinkers, beaten favourite last time out
BALLINTOY HARBOUR & MID WINSTER (both trained by P Midgely) beaten favourites last time out. Ballintoy Harbour to be ridden by Oisin Murphy

5.20
I'M A GAMBLER (M Johnston) winner in last seven days. Silvestre De Sousa has ridden 299 winners for the trainer so far
PAPA COCTAIL (T Clover) drops from Group 2 to Class 2

JASON WEAVER on YORK 

Because they can start racing from a long way out at York, which is a big galloping track, sometimes the last one to challenge has an advantage. Some people think it suits front-runners, but more often than not the one in the lead will get picked off at around the 1f marker. There’s no doubt it’s a quality course, though, wide, with no ridges, lovely sweeping turns and no draw bias. It can become very testing when the ground gets soft - it is KnavesMIRE, after all - and then it really takes some getting.

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