Pacafi (20 August 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

MO'ASSESS 2.05 Kempton at 10/11

Unibet New Instant Roulette Novice Stakes (Div 1) (Class 5) 1m


Trainer Form: 10-34 for 29%         (10)
National average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate (ALL): 27%       (10)          
RPR: 87                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Distance: 1m                        (10)
Jockey: Ray Dawson                  (10)
National Average: 10%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 0%               (0)*
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 33%         (10)
Total:                              (90)

Danger: Emblem Empire Alt: Old Flame

There is a huge negative figure to report and one we were not aware of before placing our bet. Jockey Ray Dawson has impressed most of us in the last 6 months or so, but because of his well documented problems there are gaps in his riding history. At Kempton he shows: 0-57 for 0% (-57.00). These numbers would normally have us running to them thar hills! He is currently in brilliant form winning on 7 of his last 32 rides for 22% strike rate, and his wins have been for 7 different trainers. For Saeed bin Suroor so far he has won on 3 from 9 for 33% so this is another fabulous opportunity. This is easily his best year of his career with 41 winners and his national average is steadily rising. August shows him 10-47 for 21% and prize money of £145,635 and a level stake profit of +12.82. He has 4 rides at Kempton tomorrow but the Pacafi looks easily his best chance of number 42.

Useful form and more under the bonnet

Mo'assess is a half-brother to 3 winners, including the useful 6f winner My Call (by Shamardal) and 9f winner Securities (by New Approach). The dam is a Chilean Oaks/Derby winner so a bit of stamina on the dam side. After two runs he has showed fairly useful form. Initially it looked as though he did not need to improve from debut when winning a 10-runner minor event at Kempton last time by a neck from Aramaic, making most and all out to hold on. The more we watch the race the more we liked it. His decent rival had the run of the race, looked big and a million dollars in the paddock and his debut run has since been upgraded, so the win might be better than first thought.

Looking for form to be franked

He was made the 1/3 favourite against a decent William Haggas sort and we have now upgraded the win. That race was a Class 4 Novice, tomorrow is a Class 5 Novice. The 200,000gns yearling Aramaic runs in the 2.15 Musselburgh tomorrow and  if that one wins as expected, it will frank the form. Had the Haggas runner been available at 8/11 we would have nominated him as a Pacafi.

Conditions to suit

Course and distance form on this track counts for plenty and the Godolphin colt ought to do better especially fitted with cheek pieces to help concentration. He must be difficult to beat and with his early pace and stall 4 to assist should find the rail to aid jockey Ray Dawson.

Trainer form

Saeed bin Suroor has his horses in great form currently and he has big numbers at Kempton. From 21/07/2021 to 20/08/2021 he scores 10-34 for 29.4%. He has a big national average of 21% but at Kempton he shows fantastic figures of 148-539 for 27% (+29.39). He sends 2 runners to this track tomorrow.



The Pacafi does face a handful of interesting newcomers. Vendange, a half-brother to Barley Mow, who was a Listed winner for this stable here before going on to place at the highest level in Hong Kong under the name Helene Happy Star. Old Flame and Emblem Empire represent leading stables and any market support for either should be noted and we imagine them to be more than competitive.


MO'ASSESS scrambled home when sent off a short price here earlier in the month. He's still unexposed though and is likely to take a step forward here so should take all the beating. The newcomers Old Flame and Emblem Empire look to be the best alternatives.


We look to be on the north side of value at 10/11, we had hoped to nick a bit of even money.



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