PACAFI (Thursday 2 September 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

OUTBREAK 1.30 Salisbury at 11/10

Byerley Stud Novice Stakes (Class 4) (2yo) 1m


Trainer Form: 4-12 for 33%          (10)
National average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%              (8)?          
RPR: 91                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)
Distance: 1m                        (10)
Jockey: Oisin Murphy                (10)
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 15%         (10)
Total:                              (98)
Danger: Surac Alt: Thermometer

The only negative with our Pacafi tomorrow is the course form of Mark Johnston at Salisbury where he strikes at a very lowly 11% and just about his worst UK figures. On this occasion we have set this number aside given the strong composite.

Created strong impression on debut, certain to improve!

Outbreak created a strong impression when posting a second-placed effort at Chelmsford on his racecourse debut last month, showing a very good attitude and staying on nicely towards the end. The race was a Class 4 Novice race and won by a Roger Varian runner who had previously finished in third in a Newmarket Class 4 Maiden. It looked fairly useful form and the Pacafi is certain to progress from his RPR of 91 and for a newcomer to match that number it will not easy.

Trainer and jockey form

The trainer has his horses in decent form with 4 of his last 12 runners winning at prices of 10/11, 11/1, 9/4 and 6/4. He does have some awful numbers at Salisbury but Oisin Murphy rides and he scores at 20% at the course. The trainer/jockey combination shows 15% but 25% for this current year. The trainer sends 5 to the races tomorrow with 2 at Salisbury and the Pacafi looks his best chance of a winner. Murphy rides 5 and has chances of a win double.


Point Lynas sets the standard with an OR of 76 in this contest with plenty of experience under his belt. Surac and Thermometer look to be the pick of the newcomers in this line-up representing powerful stables and they might be better than the Charles Hill trained runner.

Surac's trainer Clive Cox has won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race and 55 of Frankel's progeny have won on Flat debut.


 Some well-bred newcomers on show but preference is for OUTBREAK. Mark Johnston's charge showed plenty of ability in pushing an experienced rival close on debut and he's taken to go a place better with improvement on the cards. Point Lynas heads up the dangers of those with experience, while any market support for debutants Thermometer and Surac could prove significant.

67,000Y: fourth foal: half-brother to winner up to 1½m (stays 1¾m) Zuba (2-y-o 1¼m winner, by Dubawi) and useful 2-y-o 1m winner Starcat (by Lope de Vega): dam winner up to 1m (Lanwades Stud Stakes and 2-y-o 7f winner) who stayed 1¼m: 9/2, showed plenty when ½-length second of 7 to Claim The Crown in minor event at Chelmsford, running on: sure to progress.


The 11/10 for a Dark Angel 2yo colt with a RPR of 91 suggests any newcomer will have to be very good to turn him over. We must be north of value...



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