September 16th, 2021
LOVES ME LIKEAROCK 6.30 Wolverhampton at 6/5
Trainer Form: 6-34 for 18% (10) National average: 13% (10) Course Strike Rate: 16% (10) RPR: 86 (9)? Optimum Ground: Good/Standard (10) Distance: 5f (10) Jockey: Callum Shepherd (10) National Average: 10% (10) Course Strike Rate: 11% (10) Trainer & Jockey Combo: 10% (9)? Total: (98) Danger:
The trainer and jockey combo is a certainly a negative, we have set the figures aside on this occasion. We have a member who will not entertain a Pacafi with a combination figure of below 13% and we fully understand why!
The 2yo Lethal Force filly has showed fairly useful form and confirmed her debut promise, when not needing to improve to come out on top but adding the finishing edge that was lacking last time. She chased leaders wide early on, travelled well, then produced to lead inside final 1f, easing clear. She remains capable of much better and Charlie Hills' filly should be as effective on the Wolverhampton surface. We doubt stall 8 of 9 will be too much of a problem, she will be delivered late.
The Pacafi has a Group 1 entry later this month and will need to win this comfortably to take up that engagement!
Trainer and jockey form
A trainer jockey combination of 9% is not usually part of a math based Pacafi, so we had to address this negative head on! Charlie Hills has his horses in good form currently and shows 6-35 for 17% against his national average of 13%. His record at Wolverhampton is also excellent at 18-113 for 16% (+9.21). His 2yos show 5-22 for 23% so more encouragement towards the wager. He runs 2 at the course tomorrow (David Egan rides the other).
The figures are usually based on a 5-year time frame but Callum Shepherd is a much different jockey now! In 2014 he rode 1-36 for 3% and increased his win ratio each year to 77-593 for 13% in 2020, he has already won 59 races this year and will easily reach a personal best for 2021. He rides the AW tracks very well and Saeed bin Suroor employs him at these courses. At Chelmsford he has won 52 races and Wolverhampton 47. In fact he shows a level stake profit of +110.73 at these two tracks showing our member the type of horse he usually rides. Shepherd's current form shows 4-24 for 17% so above his national average of 10%. The prices of his last 4 winners have been at 18/1, 10/1, 10/3 and 4/11f and for four different trainers!
Callum Shepherd shows 21-105 for 20% for Saeed bin Suroor but 22% on the AW surfaces.
May Blossom may be slightly flattered by an official rating of 83, and needs to transfer her best turf form to this surface, she also has to give the Pacafi 7lbs and a big ask. Miss Anaco (£6,500y) showed up well when third on debut at Bath, while Regal Rhapsody struggled at Beverley last time but has claims on her previous form.
LOVES ME LIKEAROCK will need to go some to justify her Cheveley Park entry but there should be more to come on the back of her comfortable Lingfield success and she can defy a penalty. Fellow-winners Rosa Mystica and May Blossom can give her most to do.
First foal: dam, 5f winner (including at 2 yrs), sister to smart 5f/6f winner Double Up: fair form: 7/4, confirmed debut promise when won 11-runner minor event at Lingfield last time by 2¾ lengths from Pure Charmer, drawing clear final 1f: remains capable of better.
We had missed the 5/4 available with Bet365 (can get on with them and one bookmaker who will give us early prices) though we hoped to nick a little 11/8, but we were just about happy taking the 6/5.
UPDATE Saturday 10.30am: Our filly is on the drift but we have secured the 11/8 we originally wanted, not sure why the drift but Rod Millman has his juveniles in great form and Miss Anoco is being backed each way against our favourite. We have backed a straight forecast saver with the Millman filly at 12.21.
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