Pacafi (10 September 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

NATASHA 2.00 Sandown at 2/5

IRE Incentive Scheme EBF Fillies' Novices Stakes (Class 4) 1m


Trainer Form: 12-26 for 46%         (10)     
National average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)          
RPR: 92                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)
Distance: 1m                        (10)
Jockey: Rob Havlin                  (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 5%               (7)?
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 26%         (10)
Total:                              (97)
Danger: River Of Stars

NATASHA is a lovely daughter of Frankel and confirmed her debut promise in fine style, the start to her career was very promising given she's bred to make up into at least a useful middle-distance 3yo. She soon led and then travelled very strongly, drew clear quickly 2f out, won easily. Be assured she'll go on improving and surely one to follow!

Bred in the purple

Natasha is bred in the purple then a clear cut winner at Kempton three weeks ago, hard to oppose! She is a half-sister to several winners, including the top-class winner up to 10.5f Almanzor (2yo 7f/1m winner, by Wootton Bassett) and useful 9.5f winner Another Sky (by Le Havre) and useful 9.5f-12.2f winner Troarn (by Wootton Bassett). The dam is unraced.

Big improver

So far she has shown fairly useful form, confirming her debut promise when winning a 10-runner minor event at Kempton last time easily by 5 lengths from Moon Island, making all. Not may 2yos can hit the line hard over a mile but his one can, she will stay at least 1¼m: and carry on improving. She should be too classy for her rivals.

Trainer and Jockey form

Team Gosden are now showing their very best form of the season, our composite shows a current 12-26 for 46%, we told members their 20% strike rate was going to rise, now up to 22%. We cannot explain Rob Havlin's strike rate of 5% at Sandown and must admit we were not aware of this figure before very recently.

If we bear in mind John Gosden had a national average of 24% his Sandown strike rate was 20% (£3,980,222) so significantly down, but that still does not explain the 5% of Havlin. This is in stark contrast to the jockey's big 41% strike rate on winning favourites. We asked ourselves, does Gosden use Sandown for training/schooling purposes, so looked at the figures of Frankie Dettori. The jockey has a big 27% for John Gosden but rides 20% at Sandown, so this partly explains things - we hope. In any case, the 2yo filly looks straightforward and Rob Havlin has one of the safest pair of hands...

By the way, this year shows the jockey 11-31 for 35% for John Gosden, and 37-145 for 26% for J & T Gosden, so a combined figure of 48-176 for 27%.


 The Gosden team have bagged this novice for three of the past four years and have another very strong candidate here in the shape of Frankel-filly NATASHA, who strolled home at Kempton three weeks ago and looks a highly promising recruit. River of Stars catches the eye on pedigree so Ralph Beckett's debutante could be the one to chase her home ahead of fellow-newcomer Maggie And Me.


We were happy to take the 4/9 and 2/5 even without best price guaranteed - it will be a shock if this Pacafi gets beaten! 

Natasha traded at a high of 1.86 and BSP of 1.87 when winning last time, a race in which it led and travelled strongly early on.



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