NEWBURY Racecourse Template (Friday 19 April 2024)
April 18th, 2024
The Racing Horse offers our NEWBURY RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Friday 19 April 2024. There is a 7-race [...]
LINGFIELD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Monday 4 October 2021)
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The Racing Horse offers our Lingfield Racecourse Template for Monday 4 October 2021. There is a 7-race card including 4 Handicaps, 1 Claimer, 1 Maiden and 1 Novice Stakes Race. The going is Polytrack Standard
FAVOURITES (Non-handicap) FAVOURITES (Handicap) 2yo: 62-154 for 40% (11.05) 13-47 for 28% (-8.90) 3yo: 139-300 for 46% (-20.55) 140-455 for 31% (-64.31) 4yo+: 82-165 for 50% (+4.79) 281-890 for 32% (-77.26) Total: 283-619 for 46% (-26.81) 434-1392 for 31% (-150.47) TOP 5 TRAINERS at Lingfield current year +/- E M Johnston (15%): 12-58 for 21% (-8.48) +6% 4 S Williams (12%): 11-42 for 26% (+12.60) +14% 0 A Watson (18%): 11-43 for 26% (+0.48) +8% 2 ✓ M Prescott (17%): 9-24 for 38% (+8.14) +21% 2 ✓ R Varian (20%): 9-25 for 36% (-4.64) +16% 1 TOP 5 TRAINERS at Lingfield past 5 years Mark Johnston (15%): 72-337 for 21% (+9.60) +6% 4 Archie Watson (18%): 64-296 for 22% (-8.58) +4% 2 ✓ Richard Hannon (12%): 63-396 for 16% (-19.83) +4% 3 John Gosden (24%): 52-193 for 27% (-4.77) +3% 0 Gary Moore (10%): 34-294 for 12% (-57.31) +2% 2 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Lingfield current year A Kirby (15%): 25-97 for 26% (+27.34) +11% 0 H Doyle (14%): 19-116 for 16% (-4.94) +2% 0 R Kingscote (14%): 18-86 for 21% (-6.89) +7% 0 L Morris (10%): 17-160 for 11% (-5.57) +1% 3 ✓ D Probert (11%): 16-116 for 14% (+106.40) +3% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Lingfield for past 5 years Adam Kirby (15%): 98-574 for 17% (-148.61) +2% 0 Luke Morris (10%): 91-817 for 11% (-156.14) +1% 3 ✓ Hollie Doyle (14%): 79-472 for 17% (+4.27) +3% 0 Tom Marquand (13%): 70-452 for 15% (+66.12) +2% 3 David Probert (11%): 68-550 for 12% (-6.79) +1% 0 TOP 5 OWNERS at Lingfield for past 5 years Godolphin (27%): 40-150 for 27% (-23.14) 2 ✓ Hamdan Al Maktoum (26%): 27-103 for 26% (-4.59) - Hamdan bim Mohammed (27%): 21-78 for 27% (+11.61) 2 K Abdullah (33%): 17-52 for 33% (+10.14) - Juma Dalmook (25%): 13-51 for 25% (+3.62) 0 Hot Trainers 04/09/2021 to 04/10/2021 +/- E C Appleby (28%): 20-64 for 31.2% (+9.45) +3% 1 ✓ W Haggas (23%): 31-106 for 29.2% (-0.52) +6% 2 ✓ M Prescott (17%): 9-38 for 23.7% (-8.95) +7% 2 ✓ C Cox (14%): 15-69 for 21.7% (+24.43) +8% 1 S bin Suroor (21%): 11-51 for 21.6% (+37.32) +1% 1 E J-Houghton (12%): 11-52 for 21.2% (+0.57) +9% 1 Trainer Cold List E M Gillard (0%): 132 1 P Butler (3%): 102 1 J Bridger (7%): 33 1 T Gretton (0%): 32 1 H Palmer (16%): 20 1 A West (7%): 18 1 Hot Jockeys 04/09/2021 to 04/10/2021 +/- R J Crowley (19%): 13-46 for 28.3% (+32.55) +9% 1 ✓ J Doyle (20%): 18-69 for 26.1% (-21.82) +6% 2 C Fallon (13%): 16-70 for 22.9% (+11.04) +10% 1 R Ryan (13%): 14-77 for 18.2% (+0.85) +5% 5 W Buick (21%): 26-151 for 17.2% (-9.07) -4% 6 ✓ Jockeys Cold List R Miss Sarah Bowen (9%): 23 1 Martin Dwyer (9%): 17 1 Luke Morris (10%): 17 3 ✓ Aled Beech (6%): 16 1 Ellie Mackenzie (9%): 15 1 FIXTURES Monday 4 October 2021 Thursday 28 October 2021 Tuesday 9 November 2021 Saturday 13 November 2021 Tuesday 16 November 2021 Saturday 20 November 2021 (%): National Average (E): Entries (R) Rides (✓): Pertinence
- FAVOURITES: We have a big reliable sample to look at and despite the perils of the draw, winning favourites show 717-2011 for 35.65% (-177.28) which is significantly higher than the national average. Wagering favourites with ideal draws, trainer and jockey combination is always a first consideration! Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 46% whilst 4yo+ favourites in non-handicaps win at 50% and show a small level stakes profit. ✓✓✓✓
- TRAINERS: Top of both leader boards is Mark Johnston and he sends 4 to the course. At Lingfield he improves upon his national average by a big 6%. Archie Watson 2, Richard Hannon 3, Roger Varian 1 and Mark Prescott 2, also have runners. Hot trainers with runners include Charlie Appleby 1, William Haggas 2, Clive Cox 1, Saeed bin Suroor 1 and Eve Johnson Houghton 1. These trainers look like dominating the card to the exclusion of others. ✓✓✓✓
- ASTOUNDING FIGURES: Saeed bin Suroor at Lingfield (All time) are astounding: 101-299 for 34% (+54.47). Not many bettors appreciate the figures of this trainer on the UK AW surfaces and we have listed them below for reference. He runs NEXT VICTORY 3.30.
- JOCKEYS: Only Luke Morris (3) and Tom Marquand (3) from our leader boards have rides and both improve upon their national averages at the course. Jim Crowley comes for one ride (looks a winner), but Oisin Murphy 4, Rossa Ryan 5 and William Buick has 6 rides. ✓✓✓✓✓
- OWNERS: Godolphin and Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum have two entries each and they must be considered, they are more likely than not to have a winner! ✓
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1.00 1.30 2.00 2.30 3.00 3.30 4.00 SAEED BIN SUROOR AW (Last 5 years) Chelmsford: 71-249 for 29% (-18.32) Kempton: 150-544 for 28% (+31.64) Lingfield: 101-299 for 34% (+54.47) Newcastle: 19-84 for 23% (-23.97) Southwell: 14-39 for 36% (+5.44) Wolverhampton: 96-308 for 31% (-13.58) Total: 451-1523 for 30% (+35.68) |
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NATIONAL AVERAGE Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Lingfield show their national averages over the past 5 years. Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win. |
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NATIONAL AVERAGE EXAMPLE: We look at the 2.00 British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 1m1y (6 runners) and consider the strike rates of the trainers with runners: Nations Pride: C APPLEBY 28% ✓
Luis Fernando: W HAGGAS 23%
King Cabo: L DACE 4%
Cavendish: M JOHNSTON 15%
Looe Beach: R HANNON 12%
Fashion Delight: T GRETTON 0%
King Cabo has an RPR of 81 whilst Fashion Delight has one of 75 and currently rated second and third highest in this race. The trainers show 4% and 0% respectively - could you back either of those combinations? National averages are more than a tool to filter with - they are a barometer! They represent a perpetual and rational criterion in which to measure the current form of a trainer in a way not corrupted by bias, random or guesswork. It is one of the most factual daily elements in horse racing betting! WHAT are NATIONAL AVERAGES? |
| JASON WEAVER - LINGFIELD RACECOURSE
Lingfield’s 1m 2f all-weather start is a tough one, very draw-dependent. The same is true of the 5f and 6f starts. I always think it’s a track that lends itself to riding in the ‘third wave’. In races over 1m, for example, the first wave will go with maybe 5f left, round the initial turn, while the second wave will kick into the home straight. The third wave - the George Baker wave - usually attacks at the 1f pole and often comes out best. You don’t want to be way out of your ground, but patience can pay. |
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