CHELMSFORD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Thursday 7 October 2021)

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The Racing Horse offers our CHELMSFORD RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Thursday 7 September 2021. There is a 7-race card including 6 Handicaps, 1 Maiden and 1 Novice Stakes Race. The going is expected to be standard.

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Chelmsford FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:    95-219 for 43% (-14.99)   37-80   for 46% (+31.03)
3yo:   111-229 for 48% (-23.40)  163-485  for 34% (-49.10)
4yo+:   47-109 for 43%  (-3.61)  292-843  for 35% (-17.17)
Total: 253-557 for 45% (-41.99)  492-1408 for 35% (-35.24)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford current year      +/-   E
M Johnston (15%): 18-67 for 27%  (+1.11)      +12%   2
R Hughes (13%):   10-44 for 23% (+46.83)      +10%   1
H Spiller (9%):    9-45 for 20%  (+9.57)      +11%   6
R Varian (20%):    8-22 for 36%  (-1.56)      +16%   1
S Williams (12%):  8-64 for 13% (-33.89)       +1%   1 

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chelmsford past 5 years 
M Johnston (15%): 78-460 for 17%  (-54.68)     +2%   2
M Appleby (11%):  64-571 for 11% (-164.57)     +0%   2
J Gosden (24%):   59-239 for 25%  (-42.17)     -1%   0
S Williams (12%): 49-372 for 13% (-128.02)     +1%   1
D Simcock (13%):  48-291 for 16%  (-45.90)     +3%   0

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford current year
C Shepherd (11%): 14-92 for 15%  (-8.55)       +4%   1
R Dawson (11%):   13-48 for 27% (+25.84)      +16%   4 ✓
F Norton (13%):    8-32 for 25%  (+8.62)      +12%   2
M Ghiani (15%):    8-48 for 17% (-14.34)       +2%   3 ✓
J Doyle (20%):     7-19 for 37%  (-3.22)      +17%   0

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chelmsford past 5 years
L Morris (10%):  73-749 for 10% (-277.64)      +0%   5 ✓
O Murphy (18%):  65-302 for 22%  (-39.00)      +4%   5
A Kirby (15%):   55-302 for 18%  (-53.71)      +3%   2 ✓ 
J Crowley (19%): 49-194 for 25%   (-6.60)      +6%   0
R Havlin (16%):  48-304 for 16%  (-69.83)      +0%   0   

TOP 5 OWNERS at Chelmsford past 5 years              E
Godolphin (26%):          76-289 for 26% (-63.53)    0
Hamdan Al Maktoum (22%):  46-206 for 22% (-24.64)    -
Cheveley Park Stud (24%): 24-105 for 22%  (-8.84)    1
Juma Dalmook (22%):       22-77  for 29% (+13.49)    0
K Abdullah (18%):         18-70  for 26%  (-1.07)    -

Hot Trainers 
P & O Cole (13%):  6-21 for 28.6% (+23.50)    +16%   1
W Haggas (23%):   27-96 for 28.1%  (+0.99)     +3%   1
M Prescott (17%): 10-41 for 24.4%  (-7.95)     +7%   3 ✓
J Osborne (10%):  10-44 for 22.7%  (+3.75)    +13%   1

Trainer Cold List      E
C Wallis (8%):    91   1
M Walford (8%):   42   1
Tom Clover (10%): 49   1
S Dixon (7%):     47   3
D F Davis (7%):   34   1 ✓
J R Jenkins (5%): 23   1 ✓

Hot Jockeys 
A Farragher (16%): 9-27 for 33.3% (+20.66)    +17%   2
A Kirby (15%):     8-33  for 24.2% (+19.75)    +9%   2 ✓
O Murphy (18%):  24-134 for 17.9% (-21.06)     +0%   5

Jockeys Cold List          E
Jimmy Quinn (5%):     142  1
Josephine Gordon (9%): 40  1
Jonathan Fisher (8%):  31  1
Hayley Turner (10%):   19  1
Martin Dwyer (9%):     18  1

FIXTURES
Thursday 7 October 2021
Saturday 9 October 2021
Thursday 14 October 2021
Saturday 23 October 2021
Thursday 28 October 2021
  • FAVOURITES: Chelmsford is a great course for winning favourites, non-handicap winning favourites win at 45% and handicap favourites win at 35%. In general over the past 5 years winning favourites at the course show 745-2065 for 36.08% (-77.25) so above national average. Best category is 3yos in non-handicaps who win almost one in two races, recently it has been up to 50% but just slipped back to 48%.
  • TRAINERS: Our two leader boards for trainers show a couple of unexpected visitors but that is what the Racecourse Template is all about. The mathematics and names here have not arrived by accident. Henry Spiller has his horses in excellent form and has entered 6 runners whilst the Roger Varian entry catches the eye.
  • JOCKEYS: Luke Morris is top jockey at the course but his 10% strike rate and level stake loss of -277.64 is not conducive to profit, but we are aware especially with Mark Prescott runners running over longer distances. He has 5 rides tomorrow. Oisin Murphy has 5, Ray Dawson 4, Marco Ghiani 3, William Buick 3 and Adam Kirby has 2 rides, there will be winners amongst this group for sure! ✓✓✓✓✓
  • OWNERS: Godolphin on the AW must always be acknowledged, whilst Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum has interesting figures, though neither have runners on Thursday. However, Cheveley Park Stud have a runner and needs a check.

5.00
CUBAN BREEZE (M Quinn) formerly with T Dascombe
SENECA CHIEF (D & C Kubler) C&D winner, Jack Mitchell 38% on winning favourites

5.30
TRUE ICON (W Haggas) £135,000y, hot trainer, currently 8 winners from last 13

6.00
REBEL REDEMPTION (J J Quinn) won in last 7 days

6.30
TWO DOOR SALOON (G Boughey) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides
FLORA FINCH (R Varian) trainer is 36% at the course this year, fabulous results with 2yos this yeaar

7.00
PROSPECT (M Johnston) leading course trainer, longest traveller 230 miles
INTERNATIONALANGEL (J Chapple-Hyam) formerly with R Stephens ✓ 16/1

SKY BLUE THINKING (A West) now 1112, Oisin Murphy rides and 20% at course, 35% on winning favourites

7.30
BOY GEORGE (D F Davis) beaten favourite last time out ✓ 6/1
CATCH MY BREATH (J Ryan) won in last 7 days, weighted to win 69 > 56

8.00
PUFFIN ISLAND (H Spiller) C&D winnner, beaten favourite last time out, jockey just 7% NA and currently 3-105 since March 2021
MOUNTAIN ASH (B Millman) Oisin Murphy rides and 35-193 for 18% (+51.93)

8.30
LINDWALL (Sir M Prescott) trainer 26% with horses running over 10f+, Luke Morris rides ✓
BOBBY KENNEDY (D Coakley) beaten favourite last time out, Oisin Murphy rides
NIBRAS GOLD (I Mohammed) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out

 

Ryan Moore does not have any rides at Chelmsford tomorrow but he has great figures here showing a strike rate of 33%, we thought we would share his ALL TIME figures on the AW Racecourses :

Chelmsford:    68-208  for 33%  (+41.79)
Kempton:      152-797  for 19% (-122.22)
Lingfield:    223-1020 for 22%  (-25.28)
Newcastle:      1-2    for 50%   (-0.27)
Southwell:      2-28   for  7%  (-14.63)
Wolverhampton: 50-226  for 22%  (-22.26)

NATIONAL AVERAGE

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Chelmsford show their national averages over the past 5 years.

Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.

JASON WEAVER - CHELMSFORD RACECOURSE

Nobody can fault the layout of Chelmsford, because it’s superb, absolutely immaculate, with lovely turns and a good long straight. You’d struggle to find a horse that can’t handle the sweep of the bends and you can ride into them as hard as you can anywhere. Lots of people have noticed there’s been a pace bias, making it hard to come from behind, and that the kickback was severe. That should change now they’re working on resurfacing and, potentially, it’s as good an all-weather venue as you’ll find.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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