PACAFI (Friday 26 April 2024)
April 25th, 2024
BREAK MY SOUL 7.10 Chepstow at 4/9
Braceys Maiden Hurdle (Class 4) 2m11y
Pedigree
£290,000 Che Ma[...]
PACAFI (Thursday 7 November 2021)
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Tagged Betting advice, Pacafi, Paul Nicholls, Racecourse Template, The Racing Horse
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OUTLAW PETER 2.48 Worcester at 4/6
COMPOSITE RATINGS
Trainer Form: 2-3 for 67% (10)
National average: 23% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 29% (10)
OR: 90 (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10)
Distance: 2n (10)
Jockey: Harry Cobden (10)
National Average: 21% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22% (10)
Trainer/jockey combination: 25% (10)
Total: (100)
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Danger: Kicksaftersix Alt: Montgomery
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Outlaw Peter finished runner-up on his sole start for ‘Shark’ Hanlon, in a bumper at Navan in late-January. The ground was very testing that day and although he could not go with the winner in the closing stages, it was a promising start and he pulled clear of the remainder. The winner went on to finish fourth in the Champion Bumper, whilst the third has already won over hurdles, so the form looks very good and he should be capable of getting off the mark here, and then over hurdles next up. We very much doubt he needs testing ground but is likely to appreciate an extra half-mile later in the season or next. |
Horses are forward
Paul Nicholls has only raced one in a NHF race at Worcester in the last five years and that one won. He took charge of Outlaw Peter in the spring after his fabulous debut run and given his multiple entries recently has been ready to run. The ground is good to soft and whilst we do not know at this stage what optimum ground it looks fine given his gait and breeding. The trainer has told us his string are forward and ready to go, our horse Blackjack Kentucky was not expected to be seen until November, but even he is ready to race next week ground permitting. From his last 3 runners 2 have won advertising the form of the stable.
Trainer form
Nicholls always seems to have his horses well, his last 4 months show:
September: 4-14 for 29% (-2.83) August: 4-10 for 40% (+11.02) July: 5-16 for 31% (+3.50) June: 9-22 for 41% (+0.00)
Last October his horses were more than ready and we took advantage, he scored 27 winners from 90 runners for a big 30% strike rate and we anticipate something similar given reports. Harry Cobden is back fit and well and he rides.
Contenders
Key To The Moon has also changed hands and is now owned and trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, and although he was tailed off at Uttoxeter last October, he was sent off at 3/1 and is surely better than that. Haas Boy looks an interesting newcomer worthy of a watching brief. Kicksaftersix could be the main danger, he was given a considerate introduction when fifth of 12 in bumper at Exeter staying on nicely.
Timeform
OUTLAW PETER was unlucky to bump into subsequent Champion Bumper fourth Three Stripe Life at Navan on debut in January and can go one better starting out for Paul Nicholls. Kicksaftersix showed plenty to work on when fifth at Exeter and can follow the selection home, with Montgomery making the most appeal of the newcomers before market clues.
Value
On this occasion we cannot be precise on what is perceived value about the Pacafi but we would not offer 4/6 about this one and probably not 4/7 either. We are not concerned about fitness or ground conditions for this one. Of course we will know more once the blanket comes off but the Navan form looks particularly strong and Nicholls can only improve him from there.
Outlaw Peter traded at a low of 3.35 and BSP of 14.82 when losing last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear and travelled strongly early on.
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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.
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