NEWMARKET RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Saturday 9 October 2021)

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The Racing Horse offers our Newmarket Rowley Racecourse Template for Saturday 9 October. There is a 7-race card containing two handicaps, a Listed race, three Group 3s, and one Group 1. The going is expected to be good to soft.

 

NEWMARKET FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                     Handicap
2yo:    56-170 for 33% (-28.99)   5-26  for 19% (-12.47)
3yo:    49-134 for 37% (-20.35)  50-145 for 35% (+13.37)
4yo+:   19-53  for 36%  (-6.12)  41-138 for 30% (-13.68)
Total: 124-357 for 35% (-55.47)  96-309 for 31% (-12.78)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at NEWMARKET for last 5 years     +/-   E
Charlie Appleby (28%): 69-240 for 29% (+39.19)   +1%   5 
John Gosden (24%):     53-270 for 20%  (+5.79)   -4%   3 
Mark Johnston (15%):   35-263 for 13% (-29.35)   -2%   2
Roger Varian (19%):    34-221 for 15% (-16.74)   -4%   4   
William Haggas (23%):  29-218 for 13% (-29.08)  -10%   0 

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at NEWMARKET for last 5 years      +/-   R
William Buick (21%):   70-289 for 24%  (+13.33)  +3%   6 
Oisin Murphy (18%):    44-260 for 17%  (+20.18)  -1%   7 
Frankie Dettori (24%): 35-185 for 19%   (-0.28)  -5%   4  
Ryan Moore (19%):      34-308 for 11% (-146.82)  -8%   7  
Jim Crowley (19%):     31-234 for 13%  (-46.22)  -6%   3 

TOP 5 OWNERS for last 5 years                          E
Godolphin (24%):             84-357 for 24% (+42.48)   7 ✓✓ 
Hamdan Al Maktoum (15%):     29-189 for 15% (-18.91)   -  
M Obaid Al Makktoum (18%):   16-89  for 18% (-18.26)   2  
H Mohammed Al Maktoum (18%): 13-74  for 18% (-18.90)   0 
K Abdullah (14%):            13-92  for 14% (-43.37)   - 
  
HOT TRAINERS 
C Appleby (28%):    23-64 for 35.9% (+14.82)     +8%   5 ✓✓
D & C Kubler (12%):  4-17 for 23.5%  (+2.83)    +12%   1
J & T Gosden (22%): 21-90 for 23.3% (-20.08)     +1%   3 
K P De Foy (19%):    5-22 for 22.7%  (-8.27)     +4%   1 
G M Lyons (17%):    15-73 for 20.5% (+27.56)     +4%   1
S bin Suroor (21%):  9-45 for 20.0% (+41.32)     -1%   2

TRAINER COLD LIST       E
B Millman (11%):  40    1
M Dods (11%):     33    1
K Burke (12%):    27    1
H Palmer (16%):   25    3

HOT JOCKEYS
Frankie Dettori (24%): 16-41 for 39.0% (+11.55) +15%  4
Adam Farragher (15%):	9-28 for 32.1% (+21.66) +17%  1
Morgan Cole (12%):	3-10 for 30.0% (+76.25) +18%  1
Georgia Dobie (11%):	4-15 for 26.7% (+14.50) +16%  1
Jim Crowley (19%):     10-41 for 24.4% (+21.30)  +5%  3 

JOCKEY COLD LIST             R
Josephine Gordon (9%):	42   1
Ryan Moore (19%):	27   7
James Sullivan (7%):    22   1
Andrea Atzeni (17%):	21   4

Fixtures:
Saturday 9 October 2021
Wednesday 20 October 2021
Friday 29 October 2021
Saturday 30 October 2021
  • FAVOURITES: Winning favourites in non-handicaps perform badly on the Rowley course scoring at 35% so down at around 10% compared to other courses. Favourites at this course win 220-666 for 33% and a level stake loss of -68.25 over the past 5 years. With the exception of 3yo winning favourites in handicaps 50-145 for 35% (+13.37), all other categories produce very mediocre results.
  • TRAINERS: With the exception of Charlie Appleby all our leading trainers struggle to match their national averages on/at this course, even John Gosden resides at -4% below, William Haggas is -10% below.
  • CHARLIE APPLEBY: The trainer excels on both the Newmarket courses and it has long been one of our favourite micro-systems. His Rowley numbers over the past 5 years show: 69-240 for 29% (+39.20). His all-time figures for this course show 98-374 for 26% (+80.86) winning £3,222,526 in prize money - an extraordinary record. He sends 5 to the course tomorrow, and the advice is if you are not playing him do not back against him! 
  • AIDAN O'BRIEN'S has 8 entries for Saturday. He does well at the course, especially considering those multiple entries, and shows 27-162 for 17% (£5,485,352) and +7.65to level stakes. These figures are 4% above his UK national average of 13%. Worth reminding ourselves, from a strike rate/numbers point of view he does best in the UK with his 2yos and least well with his older horses.
  • WILLIE MULLINS has 6 entered in the Cesarewitch including the first and second favourite!
  • JOCKEYS: William Buick is the main beneficiary to the Appleby brilliance but his balance and judge of pace is top class. He is the only jockey to better his national average at this course. The jockey did get things wrong with Coroebus last time, doubt that will happen today!
  • JOCKEY COLD LIST: Ryan Moore is well and truly on the jockey cold list with a losing run of 27 over 9 days. He has 7 rides today, what chance 0-36? That couldn't happen - could it? We will not be playing stop at a winner! CAPTAIN'S BAR 1.10, BLUEGRASS 1.45, UNITED NATIONS 2.20, GLOUNTHAUNE, M C MULDOON 3.35, BIMBLE 4.10 and  KHARTOUM 4.55. At the course this year he shows 4-48 for 8%. Andrea Atzeni is currently 0-22 over 14 days, he has 4 rides today. Hard to imagine the two jockeys named reaching 0-60.
  • OWNERS: Godolphin win more races at this course than the next four owners put together 84 v 71. Backing the boys in blue blind over the past 5 years produces a profit of +42.48 to SP at level stakes. They have 7 entries today, stop at a winner? Runners include: HAFIT & GOLDSPUR 1.45, COROEBUS 2.20, NATIVE TRAIL 2.55, LIVE YOUR DREAM 3.55, BEDOUIN'S STORY and BARNEY ROY 4.55. 
  • DID YOU KNOW: Frankie Dettori has ridden 272 winners on this course and 213 on the July course for a total 485. He looks on target to ride 500 winners before he retires. He has four rides tomorrow.
  • All figures correct at 10.22am (08/10/2021). Results from Friday's meeting not included...

1.10
OUTGATE (D & C Kubler) trainer shows profit of £12.90 when having one runner at meeting, Nicola Currie 4-7 for 57% (+18.50) on the track this year
AMERICAN STAR (E Walker) two of his last 4 have won, combination with Oisin Murphy shows 33-134 for 25% (+3.95)

1.45
HAFIT (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 29% at course, William Buick rides
GOLDSPUR (C Appleby) trainer 29% at course, James Doyle rides ✓
BLUEGRASS (A P O'Brien) trainer has won 2 of the last 6 runnings

2.20
COROEBUS (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 29% at the course, William Buick rides (went too soon on this horse last time) ✓ 

2.55
NATIVE TRAIL (C Appleby) trainer 29% at the course, William Buick rides ✓

3.35
ELYSIAN FLAME (M & D Easterby) beaten favourite last time out
PRINCE ALEX (M Bell) beaten favourite last time out
BUZZ (N Henderson) formerly with H Morrison, Oisin Murphy rides ✓

4.10
SCARLET BEAR (W Jarvis) trainer shows profit of £24.71 when one runner at meeting
GALE FORCE MAYA (M Dods) C&D winners, trainer currently 0-33 and 3-60 for 5% at the course, but mare has won her last 2 starts
TENAYA CANYON (E Walker) two of his last 4 have won, combination with Oisin Murphy shows 33-134 for 25% (+3.95)

4.45
BARNEY ROY (C Appleby) trainer 29% at course, shows profit of £13.92 with horses racing off for over a year, good when fresh, William Buick rides
MOSTAHDAF (J & T Gosden) has won 2 Listed events, receives weight from Barney Roy, Jim Crowley rides ✓

Trainer Jim Goldie brings Nicholas T (50/1) to Newmarket (375 miles), whilst Keith Dalgleish (353 miles) brings Let Me Be (66/1) to race in the 3.35 Cesarewitch Handicap (Class 2). Can they stop the Willie Mullins juggernaut?

JASON WEAVER - NEWMARKET ROWLEY RACECOURSE

 With the longest straight in Britain and just one turn to negotiate in distance races, this is a lovely course to ride. Surprisingly, though, there are one or two ridges, even before the run down into the Dip, and you need to ride them smoothly. The other thing a jockey has to remember is that it’s a long way up that finishing hill - you’ll see plenty caught in the closing stages. Because of the chalk base, it can ride very lively, and the wind direction is vital. Getting cover is so, so important when it’s in your face.

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