The Racing Horse takes a look at the 161st Melbourne Cup which offers a staggering $7,750,000 in prize money for a handicap. The country's oldest and most important sporting event is an enduring cultural institution and not a single race around the world can compare to it.
Because of Covid-19 restrictions, things will be very different this year and all areas of the race will be affected. For example, the Victorian Government has confirmed only 10,000 vaccinated people will be allowed to attend instead of the usual 100,000+, but the restrictions also mean the race has been given back (albeit temporarily) to the owners - the Australian people.
In recent years the Cup had changed shape massively and totally unrecognisable from the days of Makybe Diva (2003/04/05). Regretfully, the race has been snidely peddled by its custodians to the ruler of Dubai and an Irish breeding leviathan, ably assisted by the actions of a casino owning braggart! These actions represent an act of treachery by its custodians upon the legitimate shareholders!
In recent years nearly half of the total runners were from outside of Australia and in contemptuous breach of the sanctity of the race! Ironically, the restrictions mean 20 of the 24 runners will be Australian-trained and a home winner does more than beckon!
The Aussies have the red hot favourite in INCENTIVISE (P Moody) at 6/4, he is the shortest priced ante post favourite in 91 years (since the legendary Phar Lap in 1930) and attempting a 10th successive win! He is clearly the one to beat but only two horses in the past 44 years have lumped 57kg or more to win. It is on this basis we are taking the favourite on though he has every right to win, and only one favourite has won in the last 17 years.
Before we look at any contenders we are duty bound to dispel the big myth that is regurgitated/perpetuated year after year, not just by the news media, but also serious players within horse racing! Punters must ignore the noise regarding the need for a low draw! As we said to Willie Mullins in the Phar Lap Lounge in 2017 these Melbourne Cups are won by a kind trip or an inspired ride - he totally agreed!
We now ingest some key and pertinent trends, but first acknowledge the five prerequisites of horse racing wagering: trainer form, class, distance, ground conditions and jockey competence. Because there are not many races over long distances within the Australian Racing Calendar, our determinations on distance may be compromised given many of the middle-distance types will attempt the 3200m for the first time.
We show the runners, age, sex, trainer and their 12 month strike rate and weight carried, and then sort the contenders from the pretenders:
1 INCENTIVISE 5yo g Peter G Moody (15%) 57kg
There are 4 mares (Verry Elleegant, Miami Bound, She's Ideel and Tralee Rose) in the race and they have been eliminated from our thought process as well as Johnny Get Angry the Denis Pagan (9%) entry. There are 5 in the race with no Group wins, they are Away He Goes, Carif, Pondus, Future Score and Sir Lucan.
Twilight Payment is almost a 9yo and not ran for 51 days, he cannot win and doubt his place chances irrespective of his 10/1 price. Spanish Mission has a strong staying profile, ably trained but the 74 days since a run is a negative, however he has claims but not at 7/1. We have already removed the top four in market in regards to winning this race.
The trends confirm an 88% recurrence rate for those who have ran within the last four weeks, 20 of them have ran within the last 17 days. For many of the runners who are not proven over the trip, this quick turnaround must surely come too quick, especially those with a break of less than 3 days including Great House and Knights Order, and they are eliminated.
We now look at the remaining contenders and remove those 66/1 or bigger, this leaves just 8 genuine contenders and note Ciaron Maher & David Eustace has 4 entries and all have a chance. The team also carry the best national average of 19% for this year. They must surely go close to winning given the quality of their charges! We readily accept the favourite is going to hard to beat and will employ a stake saver, but we will back the combination above in some form!
1 INCENTIVISE 5yo g Peter G Moody (15%) 57kg
Our nomination is for GRAND PROMENADE at 16/1 (Betfred). He loves Flemington (3 wins), receives lumps of weight from the top 4 in the market, is in good form winning the Group 3 over 1m4+ on good to soft ground, and looking every inch like a 2 miler. The trainers are 19% this year. Should jockey Kerrin McEvoy win the race, it will see him tie the record for most Cup wins by a jockey (four).
RACING TRENDS for 2021 MELBOURNE CUP
17/17: Won a Group class race before (100%)
15/17: Won 8 or fewer (88%)
15/17: Winners from stall 5 or higher (88%)
15/17: Winning distance – 2 lengths or less (88%)
14/17: Raced within the last 4 weeks (82%)
14/17: Ran Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Mooney Valley (5) lto (82%)
12/17: Drawn stall 9 or higher (71%)
12/17: Placed in top 3 last time out (71%)
11/17: Aged 5yo or older (65%)
11/17: Raced at Flemington Park before (7 won) (65%)
10/17: Won by Australian-based horse (59%)
10/17: Returned 12/1 or shorter (59%)
10/17: Raced within last 2 weeks (59%)
10/17: Aged 6yo or older (59%)
..9/17: Won by a 6yo (53%)
..7/17: Placed favourites (41%)
..0/17: Carried more than 8st 13lbs or 57kg (0%)
LAST 17 WINNERS
2020: TWILIGHT PAYMENT 25/1
2019: VOW AND DECLARE 10/1
2018: CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
2017: REKINDLING (14/1)
2016: ALMANDIN (10/1)
2015: PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
2014: PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
2013: FIORENTE (6/1f)
2012: GREEN MOON (19/1)
2011: DUNADEN (15/2)
2010: AMERICAIN (12/1)
2009: SHOCKING (9/1)
2008: VIEWED (40/1)
2007: EFFICIENT (16/1)
2006: DELTA BLUES (17/1)
2005: MAKYBE DIVA (17/5f)
2004: MAKYBE DIVA (13/5f)
- The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 18/1
- In 85 attempts stall 18 has never provided a Melbourne Cup winner
- Michelle Payne is the only female jockey winner (2015) Pride Of Penzance at 100/1, a win that has since been sullied (not by Michelle Payne).
- This year, English woman but Sydney based Rachel King, has a good ride on Pondus for braggart owner Lloyd Williams. To date, she has only had four career rides at Flemington and not ridden a winner. It is personal, but we do not want that one to win, the owner is no friend of this great race!
- We are expecting 23° on Monday and 29° on Tuesday so we are expecting a fast track and they are almost certain to water, especially after an above average amount of fatalities at the festival in recent years! It is right the sting must be taken out of the track come Tuesday.
|The Racing Horse Verdict:
1st: GRAND PROMENADE 2nd: Incentivise 3rd: Spanish Mission 4th: Floating Artist 5th: The Chosen One 6th: Persan
BY THE WAY: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace's last 16 runners have produced 2 winners BUT 7 second places - hitting the crossbar or not?
Today's Pacafi: click here
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.