GAASSEE 3.45 Newcastle at 4/5

Betway Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m2f42y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 7-35 for 20%          (10)     
National average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 30%             (10)        
RPR: 90                             (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Soft/Slow           (10)
Distance: 1m2f+                     (10)
Jockey: Tom Marquand                (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10) 
Trainer/jockey combination: 22%     (10)
Total:                             (100)
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Danger: Toromona

Stepped up on debut performance

Gaassee had shaped encouragingly on debut despite needing the experience and improved on that effort to get off the mark fitted with a tongue strap at Chester second time out. The Sea The Stars colt was able to dictate matters whilst looking a very good prospect, powering clear to score in emphatic fashion. He led, kicked on entering straight, quickened clear over 1f out, stayed on well winning by a massive 15l.

More improvement to come

The win was in a Class 3 Novice and tomorrow is a Class 5 Novice where he does carry a penalty. The horse seemed to enjoy the track and conditions and certainly wants to race. He is open to lots more improvement especially with 1½m still to explore and tomorrow Tom Marquand rides.

Trainer form

William Haggas is one of those trainers who always seems to be in form, 4 of his last 11 runners have won and they have not been odds-on favourites, their prices include 2/1, 4/1, 22/1 and 2/5. At Newcastle he scores 35-118 for a massive 30% and a level stake profit of +4.11. The strike rate is over 7% higher at this course than his national average! Tom Marquand has a national average of 13% but scores at 22% with this trainer and rides 20% at the track. All of our boxes have been ticked!

Contenders

Toromona has finished second in each of his three starts to date and he is likely run well under Robert Winston and must be a danger given his connections. He looked a hard ride in first-time cheekpieces when 12 lengths second of 11 in a maiden at Wolverhampton over a mile plus a bit 28 days ago, when no match for winner. Blinkers on for 1st time so claims on previous form. New Force had a pleasing introduction at Kempton and looks a good thing to place.

Timeform

  GAASSEE powered clear to score in emphatic fashion at Chester last month and looks capable of defying a penalty on that evidence. Toromona looked a hard ride on his return at Wolverhampton but his previous form entitles him to respect. New Force should improve on his opening effort at Kempton and is not discounted, either.

Value

The 4/5 looks real value even if we have a Charlie Appleby runner in the race. We would not normally take one of his on but this Pacafi looks much better than this class. JamesP has asked at what price does value end? We cannot be sure but our experience says he is every inch a 4/6 shot with the Appleby runner in the field and if we take that one out then much much less! 

Toromona traded at a low of 1.66 and Betfair SP of 1.64 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field: Gaassee traded at a high of 2.50 and Betfair SP of 1.58 when winning last time, a race in which it led.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021.