KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (10 November 2021)

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The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Kempton for Wednesday 10 November 2021. There is an 8-race card which includes 5 handicaps and 3 novice races. The going is standard to slow.

Winning favourites (5 years)
Non-handicap                       Handicap
2yo:    134-317 for 42% (-36.59)   38-130   for 29%  (-17.19)
3yo:    128-273 for 47% (-11.72)   173-568  for 30%  (-67.23)
4yo+:    48-106 for 45%  (+1.90)   262-836  for 31%  (-46.39)
Total:  310-696 for 45% (-46.41)   473-1534 for 31% (-130.81)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for current year        +/-   E
A Balding (15%):      14-71 for 20% (+48.35)      +5%   5 
Roger Varian (19%):   13-38 for 34% (+12.00)     +15%   3  
J & T Gosden (22%):   12-48 for 25% (-16.28)      +3%   4  
Roger Charlton (17%): 10-51 for 20%  (+8.54)      +3%   1       
Mark Johnston (15%):  10-69 for 14% ( +5.90)      -1%    

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for past 5 years        +/-   E
John Gosden (24%):    76-302 for 25%  (-32.34)    +1%   4     
Richard Hannon (12%): 64-636 for 10% (-179.31)    -2%   0   
Andrew Balding (15%): 59-378 for 16%  (+39.66)    +1%   5   
Roger Varian (19%):   60-266 for 23%  (-12.86)    +4%   3     
Archie Watson (18%):  53-261 for 20%  (-29.77)    +2%   0      

GODOLPHIN TRAINERS at Kempton for past 5 years    +/-   E
Charlie Appleby (28%):  44-117 for 38% (-13.51)  +10%   2    
Saeed bin Suroor (21%): 35-152 for 23% (-25.18)   +2%   2   
Total:                  79-269 for 29% (-38.69)

TOP 7 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for current year         +/-   R 
Hollie Doyle (14%):      29-175 for 17% (-31.14)  +3%   4      
Oisin Murphy (18%):      23-89  for 26%  (+3.43)  +8%   1    
Richard Kingscote (14%): 21-145 for 14% (-56.00)  +0%   3
David Probert (11%):     16-142 for 11% (-10.27)  +0%   3
Daniel Muscutt (10%):    15-94  for 16%  (+7.69)  +6%   2 
Rossa Ryan (13%):        14-71  for 20%  (+5.13)  +7%   4 
Jack Mitchell (15%):     14-91  for 15%  (+0.95)  +0%   2  

TOP 6 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for past 5 years         +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (18%): 119-646 for 18%  (-75.41)     +0%   1     
Adam Kirby (15%):    82-635 for 13% (-209.91)     -2%   0    
Luke Morris (10%):   76-888 for  9% (-196.37)     -1%   2     
James Doyle (20%):   72-317 for 23%  (+20.00)     +3%   0    
Hollie Doyle (14%):  72-555 for 13% (-171.19)     -1%   4   
Jim Crowley (19%):   70-364 for 19%  (-61.64)     +0%   1

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton for past 5 years                E
Godolphin (24%):          86-303 for 28% (-45.02) +4%   4   
Hamdan Al Maktoum (22%):  51-229 for 22% (+30.16) +0%   -
K Abdullah (24%):         28-118 for 24%  (-3.50) +0%   -
King Power Racing (14%):  25-124 for 20%  (-8.18) +6%   1    
Hamdan bin Mohammed (16%): 16-82 for 20% (+13.71) +4%   2      

HOT TRAINERS 09/10/2021 to 10/11/2021             +/-   E 
C Appleby (28%):    15-48 for 31.2%  (+3.35)      +3%   2
R Charlton (17%):    9-33 for 27.3%  (+7.25)     +10%   1
J Parr (16%):	     6-22 for 27.3% (+11.50)     +11%   2
C Cox (14%):	    10-40 for 25.0% (+43.00)     +11%   1
R Varian (20%):	    12-53 for 22.6%  (-3.26)      +3%   3
S bin Suroor (21%): 10-46 for 21.7%  (-6.00)      +1%   2        

TRAINERS COLD LIST     E
J Long (9%):	  47   1  
A Dunn (7%):	  22   1
P McEntee (9%):   29   1
J Gallagher (8%): 25   1
P Evans (10%):	  25   1

HOT JOCKEYS 09/10/2021 to 10/11/2021              +/-   R  
J Crowley (19%):  10-38  for 26.3% (+54.53)       +7%   1
L Steward (10%):   4-20  for 20.0% (+10.20)      +10%   1
H Crouch (12%):	   9-46  for 19.6%  (+6.25)       +8%   1
T Marquand (13%): 20-112 for 17.9% (+29.90)       +5%   5
K O'Neill (8%):    9-52  for 17.3% (+43.00)       +9%   5

JOCKEYS COLD LIST      E
W Carson (7%):	  53   2
D Costello (7%):  41   3
D Keenan (8%):	  40   1
J Haynes (6%):	  32   1
J Mitchell (15%): 29   1

FIXTURES
Wednesday 10 November 2021
Friday 12 November 2021
Wednesday 24 November 2021
Monday 29 November 2021
Wednesday 1 December 2021

(%): National Average  E: Entries  R: Rides
  • FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Kempton over the past 5 years show 776-2206 for 35.18% and a big level stake loss to SP of -173.34. So although the strike rate is above the national average it produces a big level stake loss. Winning favourites in non-handicaps have a decent strike rate in 309-687 for 45% and a small loss against a big sample of -38.91.
  • TRAINERS: Our top trainers dominate proceedings at this course as opposed to a course like Wolverhampton, where D Evans and T Carroll do best. Looking at our leader boards Mark Johnston makes the 246 mile trip with 3 runners but Andrew Balding runs 5. 
  • GOSDENS: John & Thady Gosden have 4 runners. We note their national average for 2021 is 21% which is 3% down on the 24% achieved by J Gosden alone and this figure surprised us! Winners secured for the new team show 125 but last year John Gosden had 149 winners? That said, the prize money this year so far shows £4,249,298 against last year's £3,113,002
  • TRAINER COLD LIST: On the trainer's cold list Paul Evans is currently 0-25 and one imagines he will find a winner soon in a low grade race on the AW.
  • JOCKEYS: Hollie Doyle and Rossa Ryan both have 4 rides whilst Oisin Murphy comes for just 1 ride in Lady Clementine 5.30 so that looks a bit of a tip. Jim Crowley comes for just one ride also in Al Husn 5.00. This one missed the start and came from a mile back to impress, the 6/1 looks big!
  • JOCKEY COLD LIST: There are 2 jockeys on the cold list who will surely end their losing run soon. Jack Mitchell is 0-29 and Dougie Costello 0-41, not sure it will be tomorrow...
  • OWNERS: Godolphin reign supreme at Kempton and have fantastic figures at the course. They have 4 runners tomorrow and will almost certainly win a race.
  • DID YOU KNOW: Charlie Appleby is 38% at Kempton over the past 5 years (44-117)? His all time figures at the course are 106-358 for 30% (-4.60). This is a micro-system and one we use alongside his Newmarket figures. 

4.30
JADE COUNTRY (E Johnson-Houghton) trainer shows profit of £34.50 with debutants
SILVERSCAPE (R Teal) trainer shows profit of £47.88 when one runner at a meeting

5.00
PRINCESSE D'OR (C Appleby) trainer 38% at course, has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Tom Marquand rides
FIORINA (G Boughey) drops from Class 3 to Class 5
AL HUSN (R Varian) trainer 23% at course, Jim Crowley rides

5.30
LADY CLEMENTINE (A Balding) top trainer at the track this year, Oisin Murphy rides
ECHO CHAMBER (R Beckett) drops from Class 3 to Class 5
LADY HAMILTON (J & T Gosden) drops from Class 2 to Class 5

6.00
MIGHTY MIND (S Pearce) beaten favourite last time out, trainer shows profit of £91.27 when one runner at meeting
NATURAL COLOUR (Saeed bin Suroor) hot trainer 23% at the track, Stefano Cherchi is 34% on favourites
EXPRESSO FREDDO (R Stephens) weighted to win 73 > 69, trainer shows profit of £41.45 when one runner at meeting

6.30
WILD MOUNTAIN (P & O Cole) C&D winner, Ryan Moore is 37% on favourites
THREE DONS (A Carroll) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with R Hannon, Hollie Doyle rides

7.00
CANDLEFORD (W Haggas) beaten favourites last time out, trainer 24% in winter and 25% with horses running 10f+ and Tom Marquand rides

7.30
BASIC BEAUTY (Saeed bin Suroor) hot trainer 23% at the track
LIMITED EDITION (J Butler) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out, Ryan Moore rides
LADY PENDRAGON (M Smith) weighted to win 70 > 66, first time blinkers, Hollie Doyle rides
SOPHOSC (I Williams) trainer shows profit of £39.22 with favourites

8.00
SEPTEMBER POWER (R Varian) beaten favourite last time out, Silvestre De Sousa rides
YAGOOD (J Parr) trainer 21% with horses running over 10f+ and hot trainer 27% for past month

NATIONAL AVERAGE

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Kempton show their national averages over the past 5 years.

Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.

JASON WEAVER on KEMPTON

The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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